2020 Poll Hype Thread

[2016]

This Poll will mostly likely confirm that South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg is now a serious Contender of the Iowa Caucuses.

[Tender Branson]

Emerson College Polling has announced a new collaboration with 7NEWS/WHDH for a series of statewide polls in New Hampshire – including a 10-day tracking poll in February 2020 – providing viewers with the clearest possible picture of the presidential race in the first in the nation primary.

The first poll will be released tonight on 7NEWS at 9 p.m.

The highlight of the partnership – an exclusive New Hampshire tracking poll that runs through Election Night 2020 – will begin Feb. 2, 2020, the day before the Iowa Caucus, and continue through the New Hampshire primary on Feb. 11, 2020. The tracking poll will measure daily changes in the Democratic and Republican fields as the presidential candidates rise and fall in popularity with New Hampshire voters.

In a statement, WHDH/WLVI Vice President and General Manager Jimmy Rogers said, “This is an exciting time to announce our partnership with Emerson College Polling. 7NEWS has been involved in exclusive and nationally cited tracking polls in New Hampshire in each of the last five presidential elections, beginning in 2000. We are committed to providing our viewers with unbiased and insightful analysis of this historic election. Emerson College Polling’s outstanding record for accuracy will ensure our viewers receive the best data available.”

Emerson College Polling is a Charter Member of the American Association of Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Transparency Initiative and has received an A- rating for accuracy from Nate Silver’s 538, making it a top ten pollster in the country.

https://whdh.com/news/emerson-college-7news-partner-for-nh-presidential-polling-first-poll-to-be-released-tonight-on-7news-at-9-p-m

[bilaps]

Q national is coming out today.

They had Warren 28, Biden 21 and Sanders 15 last time around.

Also they had Pete at 10, which is still i think his best number nationaly since. But you could say that they picked up his rise first.

[Lambsbread]

I'm really curious to see a new SC/NV poll with Pete's momentum. I'd also like to see how CA looks.

Oh the things I'd do if I were a billionaire instead of running for President.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is gonna win Cali, Pelosi and LGBT are protecting Biden on Ukraine and Impeachment.


Latinos which represent 30% and AA 20% are huge for Biden as well as Co, NV

[rhg2052]

Pelosi and LGBT are protecting Biden on Ukraine and Impeachment

wat.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

I just got called to do a national poll. Results should be out sometime in the next week. Anyone else contacted by them?

[Cinemark]

Yang is hyping up good news in the coming week. So, he's either full of it, or we are getting a new poll soon.

https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1203783533912842240

[Eraserhead]

Yang is hyping up good news in the coming week. So, he's either full of it, or we are getting a new poll soon.

https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1203783533912842240

I wonder how he got that info early... sounds a little shady!

[Cinemark]

We are getting a national Monmouth poll tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1204070755287412738

This might get Yang into the debate if he's lucky, their last poll had him at 3% nationally so a small bump will do it.

Gabbard more than likely wont get anything from this poll as she was at, *check notes*, 0% in Monmouth's last national poll.

[Holmes]

Yang is hyping up good news in the coming week. So, he's either full of it, or we are getting a new poll soon.

https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1203783533912842240

I wonder how he got that info early... sounds a little shady!

Not really. Someone on his team might know someone. I know someone at Monmouth who has told me polling results before release.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

If Monmouth really comes out of nowhere and gives Yang/Gabbard a qualifying poll at the 11th hour I’ll be pissed. We need to be clearing the stage of candidates that have no chance.

[GeneralMacArthur]

If Monmouth really comes out of nowhere and gives Yang/Gabbard a qualifying poll at the 11th hour I’ll be pissed. We need to be clearing the stage of candidates that have no chance.

Apparently it's not qualifying for Gabbard, as she's now suddenly decided to bravely take a stand by boycotting the debate she wasn't invited to.

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/emersonpolling/status/1204228096544722944

Probably like their NH media poll one with undecideds in the General Election.

[Donerail]

If Monmouth really comes out of nowhere and gives Yang/Gabbard a qualifying poll at the 11th hour I’ll be pissed. We need to be clearing the stage of candidates that have no chance.

If you're gonna make me listen to tom steyer and peter paul montgomery buttigieg, I get to make you listen to Yang. Fair's fair.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

If Monmouth really comes out of nowhere and gives Yang/Gabbard a qualifying poll at the 11th hour I’ll be pissed. We need to be clearing the stage of candidates that have no chance.

If you're gonna make me listen to tom steyer and peter paul montgomery buttigieg, I get to make you listen to Yang. Fair's fair.

I don’t disagree on that. Steyer shouldn’t be on that stage either. Pete is arguably the front runner in at least Iowa though.

[Cinemark]

Theres a Quinnipiac national poll coming out at 3 today.

[Minnesota Mike]

A Bunch of CBS/YouGov  Super Tuesday polls coming Sunday.

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1205615903133581313

[Tender Branson]

A Bunch of CBS/YouGov  Super Tuesday polls coming Sunday.

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1205615903133581313

It’s probably just 1 poll.

All Super Tuesday states combined, as they usually do.

Maybe they have a CA & TX poll, but I’m pretty sure they are not releasing results for VT or UT ...

[Eraserhead]

A Bunch of CBS/YouGov  Super Tuesday polls coming Sunday.

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1205615903133581313

It’s probably just 1 poll.

All Super Tuesday states combined, as they usually do.

Maybe they have a CA & TX poll, but I’m pretty sure they are not releasing results for VT or UT ...

It is in fact just one poll of all the Super Tuesday states. Very lame.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-battleground-tracker-biden-with-edge-in-super-tuesday-states-bloomberg-in-5th/

YouGov also continues to be strangely pro-Warren with their numbers.

[Minnesota Mike]

A Bunch of CBS/YouGov  Super Tuesday polls coming Sunday.

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1205615903133581313

It’s probably just 1 poll.

All Super Tuesday states combined, as they usually do.

Maybe they have a CA & TX poll, but I’m pretty sure they are not releasing results for VT or UT ...

Very disappointing. I Should have known better. Hate these multi state type polls.

[Tender Branson]

A new USA Today/Suffolk poll probably tomorrow:

Link

[weixiaobao]

I am guessing there would be a polling drought until after New Year.  Assume 2 days of analyzing/publishing.  So that would mean about 7 days (Jan 02-Jan 08) to poll before the deadline (Jan 10) for the January Debate.

The only candidate on the bubble is Yang.  And with the new bar raises, his chance doesn't seem good.  Some of the Yang Gang is accusing the DNC about purposefully making this arbitrary period of time in which go far enough back to include 2 qualifying polls for Klobuchar (making it her already qualified for the debate) but one day short to include Yang's second qualifying poll. 

[Tender Branson]

I am guessing there would be a polling drought until after New Year.  Assume 2 days of analyzing/publishing.  So that would mean about 7 days (Jan 02-Jan 08) to poll before the deadline (Jan 10) for the January Debate.

The only candidate on the bubble is Yang.  And with the new bar raises, his chance doesn't seem good.  Some of the Yang Gang is accusing the DNC about purposefully making this arbitrary period of time in which go far enough back to include 2 qualifying polls for Klobuchar (making it her already qualified for the debate) but one day short to include Yang's second qualifying poll. 

Steyer is actually in a better position than Yang to qualify, because he already has 2 polls and Yang just 1 and Steyer could get the necessary donors in a few days.

But as you said none of the 2 will make the January debate because there is no polling.

[eric82oslo]

I am guessing there would be a polling drought until after New Year.  Assume 2 days of analyzing/publishing.  So that would mean about 7 days (Jan 02-Jan 08) to poll before the deadline (Jan 10) for the January Debate.

The only candidate on the bubble is Yang.  And with the new bar raises, his chance doesn't seem good.  Some of the Yang Gang is accusing the DNC about purposefully making this arbitrary period of time in which go far enough back to include 2 qualifying polls for Klobuchar (making it her already qualified for the debate) but one day short to include Yang's second qualifying poll.  

Steyer is actually in a better position than Yang to qualify, because he already has 2 polls and Yang just 1 and Steyer could get the necessary donors in a few days.

But as you said none of the 2 will make the January debate because there is no polling.

In the 2016 cycle, there were 7-8 polls released nationally and in the 4 early states between January 1st and 10th, however I don't believe all of them would be qualifying this time around since DNC's rules are so super strict when it comes to which polls they accept. We're probably talking somewhere in the 4 to 7 qualifying polls range before the deadline. Possibly more if CNN, the next debate moderator, decides to do a state poll in each of the 4 early states (not out of the realms of possibilities in my opinion, as most political journalists and commentators on CNN are starting to lean hardcore YangGang in the last few weeks, especially since the last CNN debate). And also because they want to stick it to MSNBC that they are fair and impartial, unlike them, NBC and Comcast. ABC could do a couple of extra polls too, due in parts to pressure from The View panel, where at least 2 out of 6 (Whoopi and McCain, possibly Abby Huntsman as well) are really hardcore YangGang as well.