Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[GeorgiaModerate]

Probably coming soon to ads near you (after Butina was charged today with being a Russian agent):

https://twitter.com/rebeccagberg/status/1018956014618628096

[GeorgiaModerate]

Getting ensnared with Natasha Femme Fatale (a/k/a Maria Butina) could be the demise of his possibility of a successful "threepeat".

On that note:

https://twitter.com/JasonLeopold/status/1024412751182147584

[GeorgiaModerate]

Another ex-Walker cabinet member backs Evers

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[GeorgiaModerate]

A very credible source called my office today to inform me that the Marquette poll will show Evers leading

Was it John Barron?

[GeorgiaModerate]

A very credible source called my office today to inform me that the Marquette poll will show Evers leading

Was it John Barron?

What time does the very dishonest MULaw poll come out?

I think they usually release around 1:00 P.M. Central time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

46-46 tie among likely voters; Walker 46-44 among registered voters.

[GeorgiaModerate]

An anecdotal observation, which is worth what such usually are: I spent some time in Wisconsin on my vacation last month, and from talking to various people there about politics, my impression is that Scott Walker has got to be one of the most polarizing politicians there is.  Everyone I talked to either absolutely loved him and thought he was the best governor in state history, or absolutely hated him and thought he was destroying the state.

[GeorgiaModerate]

2016: If the people you are calling were actual trolls, or were otherwise engaging in trollish behavior, it would be one thing, but you're just labeling people who disagree with you as trolls. That is not acceptable here. Keep the discussion civil.

I will do that but some people are trying to get under my skin.

This is intended as a well-meaning suggestion and not a slam, but the reason for that is probably that some (not all) of your posts seem to have a truculent and hostile tone.  It's understandable that they could provoke that kind of reaction.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Any updates on the flooding?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/08/28/top-issues-fall-races-economy-health-care-education-immigration/1120017002/

Evers 46, Walker 44.

Baldwin 50, Vukmir 42.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1035540803987406849

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/blogs/wisconsin-voter/2018/08/31/scott-walker-gop-face-uphill-battle-right-now-independent-voters/1155656002/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kimberly Clark demanding $100 million from the state to keep one of their plants open. Walker calling all Republicans back to the capital for a special session to give their masters what they want.

Link?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Prediction:
Baldwin +7 ("GOLD STANDARD shows Baldwin leading.")

Walker + 3 and everyone decides Marquette is no longer the Gold Standard until they show results they want.

What I don't understand is why every other poll has shown Evers leading, while every Marquette poll  in this cycle has indicated Walker either leading or tied with Evers. Vukmir was the closest she'd ever been to Baldwin on the last Marquette poll. The Marquette poll obviously skews Republican.

This may be an effect of their likely voter screen. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

MU: Evers+5 (49-44)

[GeorgiaModerate]

prediction: Walker +4

edit: yep, sample is gop leaning.

How can you tell?

It's actually a D+1 sample.  I'm watching the live stream.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Baldwin+11 (53-42).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Those are all LV voters so far.  If anyone else wants to watch the stream, it's at https://law-media.marquette.edu/Mediasite/Play/a5025d14319b47e29f4b941e1bc1380c1d.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Im guessing they fixed their screen

He said at the beginning that the screen is simply those who say they are certain to vote.  I don't know if this is a change from previous months.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Walker's favorability is 45/52, Baldwin's is 48/40.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ok. So, apparently Trump will be rallying with Vukmir, but Walker may not be present because Trump's aides thinks he should avoid Walker due to his low reelection prospects.

https://www.wisconsingazette.com/news/political/trump-to-stump-for-vukmir-but-not-walker/article_3d80296e-d3d3-11e8-8950-3fa6398e0682.html

AND Obama is coming to Milwaukee on Oct. 26. Can't wait to see him!

Prediction: if Walker's not there and loses, Trump will say Walker lost because he didn't campaign with Trump. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is Marquette in the habit of tipping people off about their poll results before they release or complete them lol?

I interpreted "early call" as meaning his early prediction of the result, not inside info on the poll.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Walker conceded!!!

https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/1060258991215992833

"Mr. Koch, can I have a job please?"

 
There's an opening in Washington DC...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Walker’s magic surplus is gone, $2 billion dollar hole we’re in right now. Local Republicans calling it fake news and blaming the deficit on Evers and Doyle if you can believe that.

I've heard Republicans blame 9/11 on Obama, so there's pretty much no limit on how ridiculous their claims can get.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Off topic, but Dane is the only village in Dane County that voted for Walker.

Town of Dane voted for Walker, Village voted for Evers.

You have both a Town of Dane and a Village of Dane in Dane County?  And I thought Georgia place names were confusing.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/PollsAndVotes/status/1065395327644168195