Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

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The people of NC-9 are owed both a new primary and a new general, with independent observers monitoring the conduction of the election.

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Translation: he's already landed a lobbyist gig with at least five times the salary.

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[Outgoing GOP Rep. Robert Pittenger is ruling out running if there's a do-over of the Republican primary

Todd Johnson was elected to the state senate.

Surprised that this has gone relatively unreported as he is likely connected to McCray Dowless' crimes in 2016.

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McCrae Dowless indicted.

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1100803081992892418

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Why would he even release this when the most recent public poll has him leading?

This is a tongue-in-cheek way for the campaign to share intel with outside groups and super PACs legally. They want anti-pharmaceutical orgs to get involved and spend big in this race.

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Fundraising numbers look awful for Bishop - he burned through his cash and goes into the last week with barely enough to keep his ads up. With what McCready has left in the bank, he could demolish Bishop with GOTV alone.

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RRH NC-03 poll: https://rrhelections.com/index.php/2019/09/03/rrh-elections-nc-3-poll-murphy-r-leads-thomas-d-51-40/#comments

Murphy 51
Thomas 40

If this winds up being the final margin in this district, that's probably a bigger warning sign to the GOP than a solid McCready win.

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Saw an internal poll the other day with McCready +1, with the same horrendous voter enthusiasm numbers for Republicans as in this poll. They are really betting on Trump's last-minute rally to get their voters out.

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Notable that turnout in this special was rather low at ~189k votes.

This is significantly lower than the competitive specials we saw in 2017 and 2018. GA-06 was ~260k, MT-AL was ~381k, PA-18 was ~229k, OH-12 was ~208k.

No doubt McCready's campaign was expecting to pass the 200k mark at the least. Had they hit that threshold, McCready likely could've pulled off a thin victory, and his strong performance despite the turnout drop is a testament to how hard the trends have hit this district.

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If the Lumbee Tribe swung towards Bishop at only the same rate as the other eastern counties, McCready probably wins.

Not sure the Lumbee Tribe swung towards Bishop as much as they just did not turn out for McCready. Bishop's raw vote total in Robeson was barely short of Harris' whereas McCready's plunged.

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Interesting op-ed in The Hill puts forward the possible but highly unlikely scenario in which the WI-07 special could decide the Presidential election.

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Interesting op-ed in The Hill puts forward the possible but highly unlikely scenario in which the WI-07 special could decide the Presidential election.

I saw a lot about Lincoln Chafee, but nothing about WI-07.

Well, that's embarrassing.

Here's the right link