Quebec General Election 2012 (4th September)

[Hatman 🍁]

I made the 1994 and 1998 maps, and I have stuff about boundaries since 1966 (but I haven't traced any base maps from them, because it seems really hard, but if somebody is a winner they should...)

And there's a reason why I use Wordpress, noob

Yes, I know word press is better. Too late now, though

I have the 1994 base map, but if you want me to put up your maps, I will.

[Hatman 🍁]

I dont know Smid, can you convert boundary descriptions into maps? I think that's what Hash has. 

[Hatman 🍁]

I dont know Smid, can you convert boundary descriptions into maps? I think that's what Hash has. 

No, no; I have the actual maps (but not in a way which is currently friendly to MS Paint editing).

Why not? Are they individual riding maps?

[Hatman 🍁]

Quebec doesn't have community service hours requirements in high school? I didn't know that. 10 hours is a ridiculously tiny amount, though. Ontario has 40 (or was it 35?) hours required to graduate.

And Earl, while the maps are not individual riding maps but rather the lines for the entire province, they're on the Google Earth so a bit tougher to edit (and I don't have time for this kind of stuff).

Yeah, Smid sent me the link. I have traced a google earth screen shot in paint before, but if it's for the entire province, then I'd have to start from scratch. I doubt I will get the time to go that far back in the near future, but it is handy to have for future endeavours.

[Hatman 🍁]

Max is right, but I would suggest that any federalist NDP supporter in Quebec try and back this new UCQ party.

[Hatman 🍁]

Some reasons why there is no NPDQ... yet

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/Democrats+consider+resurrecting+provincial+party+Quebec/7090600/story.html

The main problem is than a large part of NDP voters are independantists.

Well Soft-sovereigntist i suppost; any NDP MP would still have to support the Sherbrooke Declaration but, yes there are some QS members/supporters in the caucus.

I get the impression that most left wingers in Quebec are nationalists, so is there a market for left-wing federalists?

Yes, but there has to be federalists in Quebec that hate Jean Charest. There is definitely a market for that. There's probably a good 25% of voters that are federalist and will not/wish they had other choices other than to vote for the PLQ.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDG seems to me as the most left wing federalist riding in Quebec. (consequently it is the best riding for the PVQ- the de facto party of left wing federalists, even though they aren't federalist per se)

[Hatman 🍁]

Outremont has to be another left leaning federalist riding, for obvious reasons. (It was the NDP's best riding in Quebec in 2006, and again in 2008 (obviously).

Also, one can also look at the 2011 elections as an indicator (somewhat). Best NDP seats in Quebec were both in the Outaouais.  Both Gatineau (Chapleau provincially) and Hull are fairly federalist, and fairly left wing. So, an NDPQ should target NDG, Outremont, Hull and Chapleau.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ahh. How does QS do in Mile End then? That area is at least somewhat federalist, no?

[Hatman 🍁]

yes, the CCF won one of the Abitbi seats with less than 30% of the vote in a 4-way race.

Anyways, looks like that strip of Mercier along its south-west border is probably very left - federalist.

Riding polls since the beginning.

Sherbrooke (http://www.lapresse.ca/la-tribune/actualites/201208/10/01-4564008-cardin-mene-par-15-points-dans-sherbrooke.php), Segma-La Tribune-NRJ-Rouge FM:
PQ 46, PLQ (Charest himself) 31, CAQ 11, QS 6, Green 2, ON 2

Granby (http://www.lapresse.ca/la-voix-de-lest/actualites/201208/10/01-4564211-francois-bonnardel-largement-en-avance.php), Segma-La Voix de l'Est:
CAQ 49 (incumbent), PQ 24, PLQ 16,

Dubuc (http://www.radio-canada.ca/sujet/elections-quebec-2012/2012/08/16/001-dubuc-sondage-segma.shtml), Segma-Le Quotidien-NRJ-Rouge FM:
PQ 44, PLQ(incumbent) 32, CAQ 18, QS 4

Numbers are similar to mine for Dubuc, but I have Sherbrooke as a tie right now. Maybe I should be less generous to Charest. In Granby I have the CAQ winning by a lot, but not that much.

[Hatman 🍁]

I have been underestimating the PQ up there by 5-10%. Then again the PQ have made some gains overall since my last projection.

[Hatman 🍁]

Why exactly are only the two of them debating?

[Hatman 🍁]

Is the QS opposing this?

[Hatman 🍁]

Why doesnt she get to be in the 1 on 1 debates?

[Hatman 🍁]

p*ssies

[Hatman 🍁]

Why doesnt she get to be in the 1 on 1 debates?

Because they are left-wing and than TVA belongs to the same group than the Sun newspapers.

Ahhh

[Hatman 🍁]

Nationalist is the wrong word. You're thinking of federalist.

[Hatman 🍁]

Nationalist is the wrong word. You're thinking of federalist.

Right, thanks.  How would you think a left-federalist would vote?

I would vote UCQ, but they're only running in 20 ridings. But, they are running in Hull which is where I would live if I were in Quebec, since it's right across the river.

Anyways, Rogue Beaver mentioned a poll from Nicolet, but didnt link to it so, here are the numbers:

CAQ: 31%
ON: 28%
PQ: 25%
PLQ: 16%

Very surprising how well the ON is doing. I know their leader is running there, but still.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm thinking my distaste for Charest would mean I would support the PQ over the PLQ, but the PQ is pretty disgusting too. That's a big 180 for me compared to how I felt when Charest was facing off against Bouchard. I hated Bouchard and the BQ/PQ with a passion in the 90s.

[Hatman 🍁]

I should be clear that I would never vote PQ either. Just that I would marginally support them over the Libs.

[Hatman 🍁]

I disagree; I think the government should be able to tell you what school to send your children. It's important for them to be educated the same way as everyone else so that they have the same opportunities. Exceptions are for special needs students of course.

[Hatman 🍁]

Wow, great find!

[Hatman 🍁]

Found 2 errors in the Chapleau riding where the Greens "won" massively while the Liberals got 1 or 0 votes in a safe Liberal ridings.

[Hatman 🍁]

Found 2 errors in the Chapleau riding where the Greens "won" massively while the Liberals got 1 or 0 votes in a safe Liberal ridings.

An error in data switiching Lib and Green I imagine. I hope the map is not full of mistakes.

It might not be La Presse's fault, but rather the fault of Elections Quebec. Once in a while you will see results from a poll that make no sense because someone somewhere a long the line switched the numbers. In this case, someone put the Liberal numbers in the green spot and vise-versa. I've seen it happen on the federal level too.  I remember watching the 2004 election, when Peter Mansbridge declared that the Marxist-Leninist Party was ahead in one of the Mississauga ridings due to a similar tabulation error.

[Hatman 🍁]

Heard on radio, the Léger-QMI poll.

PQ: 33
CAQ: 28
PLQ: 27

lol. Where does that put the FR poll?