ND-SEN: But you are, Blanche, you are

[MycroftCZ]

The feeling I get out of North Dakota is that Heitkamp is really putting in the work for a second term while Cramer sorta expects to be elected because to state is red(ish)... I'd still say advantage Heitkamp in ND

[MycroftCZ]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1012070304091435010

I wonder what his nickname for Heitkamp will be...

[MycroftCZ]

Who else misses January, when it was Heitkamp vs. Tom Campbell, she was incredibly popular, and the race was Lean D?

[MycroftCZ]

wow, I hope this gets some traction... Go, Heidi!

[MycroftCZ]

Heitkamp better be preparing an ad about what Cramer said. If she doesn't do anything with it, she deserves to lose.

She already made one.

Good!

Where's the ad? She's got a lot more material after today.

[MycroftCZ]

This means she’ll probably lose reelection and she knows that. Doing the right thing over winning an election. Respect.

[MycroftCZ]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYeFsMNFzwM

This is such a good ad from Heidi(what else is new). On the heels of the Kavanaugh announcement, this is gonna help her.

[MycroftCZ]

https://youtu.be/QNZuXF7ewf0

Ad from Heitkamp explaining her Kavanaugh vote and mentioning that she voted for Gorsuch. It’s a good strategy and I think she should really stress that she would have voted for anyone BUT Kavanaugh.

[MycroftCZ]

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https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/19/schumer-senate-midterms-915405

He seems generally confident about Heitkamp... wonder if their internals show her bouncing back?

[MycroftCZ]

So I gave money to Heitkamp after the Kavanaugh vote and since then her campaign has sent me at least five emails a day asking for more.

That's generally how political campaigns work.

I have friends who donate to a lot of campaigns who are particularly annoyed with Heitkamp emails.

There's no way they're more annoying than the Doug Jones emails.

[MycroftCZ]

Heitkamp's down but this state has NO VOTER REGISTRATION and we have a poll with only 9% of people identified as Independents. That Cramer +16 poll is complete junk and if you move the numbers to 45% R, 35% D, and 20% Independent, Heitkamp's got a slim lead. 

[MycroftCZ]

Heitkamp's down but this state has NO VOTER REGISTRATION and we have a poll with only 9% of people identified as Independents. That Cramer +16 poll is complete junk and if you move the numbers to 45% R, 35% D, and 20% Independent, Heitkamp's got a slim lead. 

Yes yes unskew those polls

To be fair, those are just the 2016 numbers, though a bit D friendly in my book.

I know, all the polls have her down double digits and the recent cycle has been dominated by her doxxing domestic abuse victims but if you want to believe she still has a shot (just like you believed Jealous was ahead in Maryland) go ahead

Ooof, you got me, I though a race may get closer back in June, and I was wrong, I should be ashamed.

All Im doing is pointing out that the numbers the poster used are almost exactly the 2016 numbers, giving 2% more to Rs and 2% more to Is, giving an electorate of 31% Ds, 47% Rs, and 22% Is. Not claiming anything, just laying down numbers. I personally dont like to go based off a hunch, unlike you do whenever an R is leading a race by more than 1 in a single poll.

I'm not saying that Heitkamp's gonna win and I think I'm definitely going to be more optimistic about her chances because I love her. What I am saying that we really have no idea who's gonna turn out in 2 weeks and I have a feeling that there are a lot more people that are gonna vote for Heitkamp than a lot of us think.