VA-Gov 2021: Herring for AG after submitting to resident political overlord T-MAC

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VPAP has a nice visual on the fundraising of all of the gubernatorial candidates (official accounts and PACs). It shows the money raised in the first half of 2020, and their cash on hand as of June 30.

I can't post the link, but here's the data:

Terry McAuliffe: $1,689,000 raised, $1,594,000 on hand

Jennifer Carroll Foy: $811,000 raised, $696,000 on hand

Jennifer McClellan: $490,000 raised, $411,000 on hand

Amanda Chase: $227,000 raised, $191,000 on hand

Mark Herring: $24,000 raised, $392,000 on hand

Justin Fairfax: $19,000 raised, $85,000 on hand

Bill Carrico: $0 raised, $7,000 on hand.



For me, the big takeaway is that I have do not have to fear Justin Fairfax getting the Dem nomination, even with a split field. While some Dems are willing to tolerate him and invite him to events now, he is not seen as a credible candidate for governor.

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So with all this fundraising for Tmac, is it a certainty he runs

Not a certainty but highly likely.

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Would he have any other reason to start fundraising right now

Well in his case it's all PAC money. If he prefers to take a spot in the Biden administration, all the money is still there for him to spread around as he pleases or save for a future race.

But that being said, I do think he'd rather be governor again than work in the Biden administration. Especially when Biden has no particular reason to offer him a top position.

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Virginia’s Riggleman Says He’s Considering Bid for Governor

Congressman Riggleman is thinking about running. Not necessarily as a Republican.

[LtNOWIS]

Virginia’s Riggleman Says He’s Considering Bid for Governor

Congressman Riggleman is thinking about running. Not necessarily as a Republican.

If he ran as an indy, how well would he do?

Probably not great. People are polarized nowadays.

It would depend a lot on who the GOP nominee was. If the GOP nominates Amanda Chase, Riggleman could get a lot of people looking for a "sane Republican," like in the 1994 Senate race. But that would still only be good for high single digits IMHO.

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McAuliffe filed paperwork yesterday to set up a 2021 gubernatorial campaign committee. He appears to be running.

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1296454306590334982

[LtNOWIS]

How likely is it that they pass legislation to get rid of the one-term limit? I really don't get why the governor is term-limited, but the LG and AG aren't.

I mean from an "elections fan" perspective, the term limit is great. Keeps things interesting in comparison to other states. 

https://twitter.com/VaPoliticalNews/status/1290090288115937280?s=20
Does he really think he could defeat Chase in a primary? He's got way too much baggage that can be attacked from the right...and the left if he gets that far.

what baggage?

I think it was also blackface. Someone correct me if I'm wrong.

You may be thinking of the Virginia state senate GOP leader Tommy Norment. Norment never appeared in blackface but he was one of the editors of a racist college yearbook that had a lot of blackface and Klan attire in it.

As a white guy who went to JMU and Colonial Heights High School in the 70s, it's possible Cox has this stuff as well, but nothing's come out yet.

[LtNOWIS]

If T-Mac jumps in, he definitely has this in the bag. I very much like him and think he was a great governor. But I also find Jennifer Carroll Foy a very inspiring candidate, who could make history by becoming to first black woman as governor. Should T-Mac actually get in, maybe they can strike a deal and have her run for lieutenant governor instead, with T-Macs support. In 2025, she could run to replace him. She's still in her early 40s and could get some additional experience in the second spot.

IMHO Jennifer Carroll Foy is not any better than the other two state legislators already running for Lt. Governor, Hala Ayala and Elizabeth Guzman.

Interestingly, all 3 women were elected in 2017. They all live in Prince William County, in the outer suburbs of DC. They live in neighboring districts and according to VPAP, all have Woodbridge addresses.

[LtNOWIS]

If T-Mac jumps in, he definitely has this in the bag. I very much like him and think he was a great governor. But I also find Jennifer Carroll Foy a very inspiring candidate, who could make history by becoming to first black woman as governor. Should T-Mac actually get in, maybe they can strike a deal and have her run for lieutenant governor instead, with T-Macs support. In 2025, she could run to replace him. She's still in her early 40s and could get some additional experience in the second spot.

IMHO Jennifer Carroll Foy is not any better than the other two state legislators already running for Lt. Governor, Hala Ayala and Elizabeth Guzman.

Interestingly, all 3 women were elected in 2017. They all live in Prince William County, in the outer suburbs of DC. They live in neighboring districts and according to VPAP, all have Woodbridge addresses.

I really wish all three of those delegate seats wouldn't be open and wish at least two of them would run for re-election.
 
They seem to be reach seats for the GOP. Especially under Biden.

I hate to say "the realignment is permanent," but in this case I think it will be durable. The demographic shift is immense. A hell of a lot of new immigrants arrived in the county, and after 2016 they figured out that Virginia also has odd year elections. The new maps will also aid Democrats, since Prince William and Loudoun are growing compared to the rest of the state.

[LtNOWIS]

Keeping the one-term limit and the odd year elections makes us different than other states, and makes things more interesting. That's as good a reason as any to keep things the way they are.

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https://wtop.com/virginia/2020/09/democrat-fairfax-announces-bid-for-virginia-governor/

Justin Fairfax is making it official. I'm mildly surprised he's still going through with his bid.


All the local news articles and radio sound bites are mentioning the sexual assault allegations, so I'm not too worried about him winning, but it's really a bad look for the Commonwealth that he continues to serve as Lt. Governor and attend Democratic events.