European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[Mike88]

Well, let's talk about Portugal. European elections have a tradition of punishment of either the government, the opposition or both. 1989, 2004 and 2009 were elections of clear punishment of the incumbent government: 1989 a punishment to Cavaco Silva's PSD; 2004 a punishment to Barroso's PSD; 2009 an overwhelming punishment to Sócrates's PS. But, 1987, 1994 and 1999 were elections of congratulations to the incumbent governments: 1987, the 1st EU elections, gave a landslide victory to the PSD; 1994, the PSD, after 9 years in power, basically tied with the PS in votes; 1999, a resounding PS victory. 2014 was the exception. Both PS and PSD/CDS were clearly punished, but more the PS than the PSD/CDS because of expectations.

So, what will happen in 2019? A lot can happen till then but, with the current data, the PS will have a comfortable win of more than 10 points over PSD. As of right now, this is how i see it:

37.7% PS, 9 seats (+1)
26.5% PSD, 7 (+1)
  8.9% BE, 2 (+1)
  8.0% CDS, 2 (+1)
  7.3% CDU, 1 (-2)
  2.5% PAN, 0
  4.1% Other, 0 (-2)
  5.0% Blank/Invalid

35.0% Turnout

9 S&D (+1)
9 EPP (+1)
3 GUE/NGL (-1)
0 ALDE (-1)

MPT would lose its sole MEP, José Inácio Faria - currently seating with EPP, because Marinho Pinto left the party to form a new one, PDR, and Marinho Pinho would also be out because he has stated he will not run for another term.

[Mike88]

Treffpunkt Europa has a prognosis for every EU country here.

Does not seem too accurate for the Netherlands, though: ALDE parties D66 and VVD winning 11 out of 29 seats seems way too much and is probably the result of using national polls for the next GE as indicator. D66 tend to do somewhat better in European elections compared to GEs, but the VVD do much worse. ALDE parties now have 7 seats (D66 4, VVD 3), so it seems really unlikely that they win more than 9-10 seats in the next EP election (I'd place my bets on 4 for both D66 and the VVD). CU-SGP losing their second seat also seems unlikely with three more EP seats for the Netherlands and the CDA are probably not losing two out of five seats in a low-turnout election. I also think Forum are likely to become the largest party on the Euroskeptic right, not the PVV.

The Portuguese projection seems odd to. PSD+CDS would win 8 seats, not 7, and i don't know where they are finding a Green MP from Portugal.

[Mike88]

LN and AfD will probably be bigger than FN in the new ENF group.

I'm not really sure. FN probably won't go under 15%

But AfD will get more than 10% (probably closer to 15%, possibly even more) and Germany has many more seats than France. Italy has about the same number of seats as France, and the Lega will probably outperform FN unless they suddenly become unpopular in government.

Also saw this today:
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/996765544459243520
Any other "eco-socialist" parties that could join them? I guess it's doubtful the Portuguese, Greeks and Danes make it in, though...

If LIVRE gets the same percentage points it had in the 2015 general election, 0.7%, it will be an amazing feat. So, no, they will not get in. PAN, however, could surprise and get a seat, but it's also very difficult.

[Mike88]

CDS kicks off their election campaign for the EP elections:

CDS, member of EPP, has became the first Portuguese party to start their 2019 EP elections campaign. Assunção Cristas, CDS leader, and Nuno Melo, CDS main candidate for the EP elections, unveiled the first election poster of the party's campaign:

 
CDS poster for the EP elections.

Adding to the poster, Cristas and Melo unveiled a flyer with what the CDS defends, or not, for the EU: they are against European taxes, are open to migrants but they should respect European values, among others. Cristas also stated she wants to double the number of CDS MEP, they have just one, in next year's election.

The head candidates for the main parties, without counting CDS, still have to be chosen, but some are almost certain:

PSD-EPP: Paulo Rangel (most likely)
PS-PES: No one knows
BE-PEL/EACL: Marisa Matias (most likely)
CDU-EGP/PEL: João Ferreira (most likely)
CDS-EPP: Nuno Melo

[Mike88]

PSD announced, today, that they support Manfred Weber. For the EPP congress, PSD has 17 delegates, while CDS has 5.

[Mike88]

No surprise here: Marisa Matias will be the main candidate for the Left Bloc (BE) in the EP elections.


In 2014, Marisa Matias also led the BE's list and got only 4.6% of the votes.

[Mike88]

The Austrian Election Commission will not release the results of the EP election until 11pm on Sunday, May 26th this time, even though polls in Austria already close at 5pm.

That is because the last polls close at 11pm EU-wide and the Austrian Interior Ministry does not want to publish results earlier to influence voters in other countries (as it should be).

I wish all countries that are voting earlier than Sunday (like the Netherlands) or that close earlier would do so. If someone knows the results from the Netherlands, one could make a decision based on those results, which should be prohibited IMO.

https://www.vienna.at/eu-wahl-viele-veraenderungen-erwartet/6044966

I don't agree with that. In fact, that move of only releasing results after all the polls in Europe are closed is just silly, IMO. Like it or not, EP elections are more a country by country election, where the dinamics are completely different from each other. The overwhelimg majority of voters, 90%+, don't vote on their favourite candidate for the EU commission, the vast majority don't even know who they are, but, rather, on the party they feel did the best campaign in their country, or against the government they have in that moment. Also, no one will vote in some way, or not, based on the results in other EU countries. The way the Greeks voted will not affect, at all, the Finnish or Irish voters, for example.

[Mike88]

The Austrian Election Commission will not release the results of the EP election until 11pm on Sunday, May 26th this time, even though polls in Austria already close at 5pm.

That is because the last polls close at 11pm EU-wide and the Austrian Interior Ministry does not want to publish results earlier to influence voters in other countries (as it should be).

I wish all countries that are voting earlier than Sunday (like the Netherlands) or that close earlier would do so. If someone knows the results from the Netherlands, one could make a decision based on those results, which should be prohibited IMO.

https://www.vienna.at/eu-wahl-viele-veraenderungen-erwartet/6044966

I don't agree with that. In fact, that move of only releasing results after all the polls in Europe are closed is just silly, IMO. Like it or not, EP elections are more a country by country election, where the dinamics are completely different from each other. The overwhelimg majority of voters, 90%+, don't vote on their favourite candidate for the EU commission, the vast majority don't even know who they are, but, rather, on the party they feel did the best campaign in their country, or against the government they have in that moment. Also, no one will vote in some way, or not, based on the results in other EU countries. The way the Greeks voted will not affect, at all, the Finnish or Irish voters, for example.

There is no evidence of that and that is highly subjective. What if it does ? Even if there are just 5% of people out there who are making their decision based on the results of the Netherlands, which is voting on Thursday (IIRC) and already release their results then instead of Sunday night ? 5% of people voting that way could change a lot.

That's why I also favour the same publishing embargo for US elections. For example when polls close in Virginia, people in CA, OR, WA, HI and AK are still voting. If people there know that Virginia will suddenly go Republican instead of Democratic like all the time in recent decades, it will impact at least some voters in those states and they could vote differently. CA, OR, WA, HI, AK are not close states, but what if they were ? If people knew the results from the East Coast and the West Coast states were in fact close and could decide a Presidential election, there's no reason why results shouldn't be embargoed. All results should therefore be released at the same time. Better would even be if all states/countries would not even start their vote count until the last precinct has closed (to avoid leaks to the media). In the case of the US, this would mean that no state would be allowed to count their votes until HI has closed all their polls.

Again, it's just my opinion, but that's not the case. In the US, you have the same candidates in all 50 states+DC on the ballot and the political parties are also the same in every state, and there's no proof that California voters are influenced by early returns from Florida, for example. So, it's not a very good comparison. In the EU it's the opposite. In Ireland, Greece or France PES is almost nonexistent, in Italy or Netherlands EPP is almost nonexistent, and in Portugal, for example, ADLE is nonexistent. Therefore, the party dynamics are completely different country by country, meaning that if Austria, for example, votes massively for OVP (EPP), that will not occur, or won't effect voters, in Italy, Portugal or Netherlands. Like i said above, EP parliament elections are more aligned with the political mood in each country and European issues are very neglected during the campaign.

[Mike88]

Portugal, Aximage poll:

Vote share %:

32.6% PS, 8/10 seats
19.8% PSD, 5/7
11.3% CDU 2/3
  8.4% CDS, 2/3
  6.3% BE, 2/3
  2.0% PAN, 0
  1.2% Alliance, 0
  3.0% Others/Invalid, 0
15.4% Undecided

Poll conducted between 4 and 7 January 2019. Polled 608 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

Portugal: PSD and PS lead candidates announced.


Pedro Marques, PS lead candidate.


Paulo Rangel, PSD lead candidate.

The PSD and PS have chosen who will head their lists to the May EP election. For the PSD, Paulo Rangel is, once again and as expected, the chosen one. He was already the lead candidate in 2009 and 2014. For the PS is Pedro Marques, current minister of Infrastructures, although he will only be confirmed on February 16th in the socialists national convention.

[Mike88]

Portugal: André Ventura's Enough! party and several other right-wing parties, are negotiating an "anti-system" coalition for the EP elections:


André Ventura's Enough! party campaign poster in Porto city.

André Ventura's new party, Enough!, isn't legalized yet but it is already making contacts with several smaller right-wing parties to form an "anti-system" coalition. Until now, he has forged deals with Democracy 21, a movement that is collecting signatures to become a party and PPV/CDC - Portugal Pro Life/Christian Democracy Citizens. Adding to the list, seems to be PPM - People's Monarchist Party. The party has confirmed they have been talking with Ventura, but a deal with him is still on the works.

This coalition, if gathers Enough!, PPV/CDC and PPM, could get, with my math and looking to past election results of PPM and PPV/CDC, almost 2% of the votes in the EP elections, not enough to win a seat, but still, a respectable account.

[Mike88]

2%? I think this is rather pessimistic, as the Spanish "Vox" party was too a marginal party until the Andalusian election. Unfortunately most estimates of the results of populist parties are pessimistic.

That's just my hunch. There's a big protest party also on the ballot, PAN, that can steal votes from the left and right, but Ventura may be underestimated, no doubt. He's most known to be a football commentator, pro-Benfica, that infuriates Porto and Sporting fans. However, as a politician he became famous because of his remarks about gypsies and, currently, for his support of castration of pedophiles and the implementation of life imprisonment.

He could appeal to some voters, particularly elderly votes who are viewers of CMTV, the fourth largest TV channel in Portugal with a viewing share of around 5-6%, somedays it ties with RTP1. The channel, like the newspaper, is very, very dramatic, reports killing sprees across Portugal, stabbings, robberies, corruption scandals and other stories that can create a sense of insecurity, which in the majority of times are completely false and over the top. Ventura is a football commentator in CMTV and also writes an op-ed about politics once a week. He could appeal to voters that feel a sense of insecurity, impunity and that things are out of control. We'll see, but i am sticking with my hunch of around 2%.

[Mike88]

Portugal: PS list (PES) presented:

1. Pedro Marques, former minister of infrastructures
2. Maria Manuel Leitão Marques, former minister of modernization
3. Pedro Silva Pereira, current MEP; former minister in Sócrates cabinets
4. Margarida Marques, former secretary of European affairs
5. André Bradford, nominated by PS-Azores
6. Sara Cerdas, nominated by PS-Madeira
7. Carlos Zorrinho, current MEP
8. Isabel Santos, current of MP from Porto district
9. Manuel Pizarro, leader of PS-Porto
10. Isabel Estrada
11. João Albuquerque, leader of the Young European Socialists
12. Selene Martinho

The first 12 candidates are 50% male and 50% female. The rest, until number 21, has 0% of being elected.

Out of the lists:

Francisco Assis, current MEP
Ana Gomes, current MEP
Maria João Rodrigues, current MEP
Liliana Rodrigues, current MEP
Ricardo Serrão Santos, current MEP

To add also, the PSD (EPP) will present and approve their lists on March 13th.

[Mike88]

Portugal, Aximage poll from February:

Vote share %: (compared with the January poll)

34.1% PS (+1.5), 9 seats
24.8% PSD (+5.0), 6
  9.2% BE (+2.9), 2
  8.3% CDU (-3.0), 2
  8.1% CDS (-0.3), 2
  1.8% Alliance (+0.6), 0
  1.4% PAN (-0.6), 0
  7.0% Others/Invalid (+5.0), 0
  5.3% Undecided (-10.1)

38.2% Turnout (+2.2)

Poll conducted between 5 and 10 February 2019. Polled 602 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

AFAIK AFD (Germany) from ECR, Smer (Slovakia) were briefly suspended from S&D after forming a coalition with a far-right party, and CDS (Portugal) from EPP. I'm sure there are more examples.

CDS was expelled in 1993 for becoming eurosceptic, anti-Maastricht and for not paying fees to the EPP under the then leader, Manuel Monteiro. 10 years later, under Paulo Portas leadership, the CDS once again returned to the EPP by the hand of the PSD.

[Mike88]

Portugal: PSD list (EPP) presented:

1. Paulo Rangel, current MEP
2. Lídia Pereira, leader of YouthEPP
3. José Manuel Fernandes, current MEP
4. Maria Graça Carvalho, former MEP
5. Álvaro Amaro, mayor of Guarda city
6. Cláudia Aguiar, nominated by PSD-Madeira
7. Carlos Coelho, current MEP
8. Ana Miguel dos Santos
9. Sónia Cristina dos Ramos
10. Teófilo dos Santos
11. Vânia Neto
12. Ricardo Morgado

The first 12 candidates are 50% male and 50% female. The rest, until number 21, has 0% chances of being elected, although the overall number of the PSD list has 15 women and 14 men.

[Mike88]

Portugal: PSD list (EPP) presented:

1. Paulo Rangel, current MEP
2. Lídia Pereira, leader of YouthEPP
3. José Manuel Fernandes, current MEP
4. Maria Graça Carvalho, former MEP
5. Álvaro Amaro, mayor of Guarda city
6. Cláudia Aguiar, nominated by PSD-Madeira
7. Carlos Coelho, current MEP
8. Ana Miguel dos Santos
9. Sónia Cristina dos Ramos
10. Teófilo dos Santos
11. Vânia Neto
12. Ricardo Morgado

The first 12 candidates are 50% male and 50% female. The rest, until number 21, has 0% chances of being elected, although the overall number of the PSD list has 15 women and 14 men.

Any idea why Coelho got demoted? He's been here quite a few times in the past as the Parliament's rapporteur on Bulgaria and Romania's Schengen status, so many people, especially in GERB, would be sorry to see him lose his seat.

It was Rui Rio's choice. Coelho is a MEP since 1994, i believe, and Rio wanted to "shake up" and rejuvenate the PSD lists, not to mention he wanted full parity between men and women. Nonetheless, he can still be reelected. The PSD is polling at around 26% for the EP elections, and if they can increase that number to 27/28%, Carlos Coelho is easily reelected.

[Mike88]

In a new setback, PPM, People's Monarchist Party, votes against André Ventura being the main candidate for the EP elections:

The PPM national council has voted against André Ventura being the main candidate for the EP elections, calling him "racist" and "populist" This mean that Ventura has to have his party legalized until the April 15th, the deadline to present candidates. His party was adverted by the Constitutional Court for having signatures of children and others. He says that he has collected an extra 1,000 new signatures and will deliver them next Monday to the Court.

The proposed coalition between Enough! and PPM could also be dead. We'll see.

In another U-turn, PPM, People's Monarchist Party, approved André Ventura as the main candidate for the Enough! coalition for the EP elections. After refusing Ventura's name as the main candidate, the party did a re-vote and an overwhelming number approved his name. The coalition called "Enough!" will be composed by PPM, PPV/CDC (Portugal pro life party), Ventura's party, Enough!, which isn't legal yet, and Democracy 21, a movement that wants to become a party.

The coalition will be officially announced next week, although PPM says it has different views and manifestos compared with Ventura. For the 5th place in the list, Ventura asked a police officer, Hugo Ernano, that was convicted of fatally shooting a kid during a police chase back in 2008. Ernano is still considering because police officers are barred from political activity in Portugal.

[Mike88]

Portugal, Aximage poll from March:

Vote share %: (compared with the February poll)

34.1% PS (nc), 8/9 seats
29.1% PSD (+4.3), 7/8
  9.2% CDU (+0.9), 2
  7.6% BE (-1.6), 2
  7.3% CDS (-0.7), 1/2
  2.0% Alliance (+0.2), 0
  1.9% PAN (+0.5), 0
  8.8% Others/Invalid (+1.8 ), 0

44.5% Turnout (+6.3)

Poll conducted between 9 and 13 March 2019. Polled 600 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

Portugal: Constitutional Court rejects the name of André Ventura's coalition, Enough.

The Constitutional Court has rejected the name of André Ventura's coalition, Enough. The right-wing coalition, with PPM, Portugal pro life, Democracy 21 and Ventura's party, Enough - which isn't legal yet, is now considering skipping the EP elections, although the decision is not yet final. The Court says that because the coalition name is the same of Ventura's party, that could confuse voters. The Court has given two weeks in order to change the name. Ventura is quite upset by this ruling and, like the coalition, is considering dropping out.

[Mike88]

André Ventura's coalition, now called "Europe Enough", is again struck down by the Constitutional Court.

[Mike88]

André Ventura's coalition, now called "Europe Enough", is again struck down by the Constitutional Court.

Third time's the charm. Constitutional Court approves André Ventura's new name for his right-wing coalition. Insted of "Europa Chega", it will be called "Coligação Basta". In English both have the same meaning "Enough Coalition".

Another coalition is still waiting the Court's ruling because of divisions within the MPT, Earth Party. This coalition is called "The Civic Front" and it's composed by MPT, Earth Party and We, the Citizens!, both center to center-right parties. The coalition is headed by former 2016 presidential candidate, Paulo de Morais.

[Mike88]

André Ventura's coalition, now called "Europe Enough", is again struck down by the Constitutional Court.

Third time's the charm. Constitutional Court approves André Ventura's new name for his right-wing coalition. Insted of "Europa Chega", it will be called "Coligação Basta". In English both have the same meaning "Enough Coalition".

Another coalition is still waiting the Court's ruling because of divisions within the MPT, Earth Party. This coalition is called "The Civic Front" and it's composed by MPT, Earth Party and We, the Citizens!, both center to center-right parties. The coalition is headed by former 2016 presidential candidate, Paulo de Morais.

What was the court's reason not to approve the name "Europa Chega" (Europe Enough) ?

Sounds crazy to me that a court would rule against such a name ...

Was the reason political correctness or was it a trademark problem (some other group already having that name) ?

The court's reason was that you cannot name a coalition with the same name of a party that was under consideration for approval by the Court. André Ventura's party is also called "Chega" (Enough). According to the Court, that could confuse voters, as they could think they were voting for the party rather than the coalition.

I had nothing anything to due with PC or something like that. It was just Portuguese language names difficulties, in my view.

[Mike88]

Portugal: Aximage poll from April:

Vote share %:

33.6% PS (-0.5), 8 seats
31.1% PSD (+2.0), 8
  9.4% CDU (+0.2), 2
  8.0% BE (+0.4), 2
  6.8% CDS (-0.5), 1
  1.3% PAN (-0.6), 0
  1.3% Alliance (-0.7), 0
  8.5% Others/Invalid (-0.3), 0

Poll conducted between 30 March and 1 April 2019. Polled 602 voters. MoE of 4.00%.

[Mike88]

About the Aximage poll, pundits in Portugal are now considering that the PS could be on the verge of losing the EP elections. Now, the PS is still ahead in the polls, but the trend is, currently, negative for them. This is a big turn of events. Just 3 months ago, the PSD was in a huge leadership row and plummeting in the polls, and look at them now. I still think the PS will win, but it could be a razor thin margin. We'll see.

Also, according to that poll, EPP would get 37.9% (9 seats), PES would get 33.6% (8 seats), GUE/NGL would get 17.4% (4 seats), and EGP would get 1.3% (0 seats).