Japan General Discussion

[jaichind]

Some interesting facts and background of heavyweight MP from Kumamoto Prefecture (熊本) Sonoda Hiroyuki (園田博之) who recently left FPG to rejoin LDP.  

Sonoda is the son of one Sonoda Sunao (園田直) who was first elected from Kumamoto in 1947 and was re-elected every election up to 1983.  Sonoda senior died in 1984.   Sonoda junior then ran for his father's seat and won but had to face his own stepmother Sonoda Tenkōkō (園田天光光) and defeated her in a 5 member district race.  Sonoda Tenkōkō was called Matsutani Tenkōkō (松谷天光光) and was also elected in 1947 in Tokyo as a Socialist.  While in the diet she had an affair with the married Sonoda senior and got pregnant.  Sonada senior then divorced his wife and  mother of Sonoda Hiroyuki and married Matsutani which was one of the great scandals of the Japanese diet in the late 1940s.  Sonoda Tenkōkō  was the first MP to give birth while being a MP.  Sonoda Tenkōkō then had a shift in political views and joined the right wing Progressive Party of her husband but lost reelection in Tokyo in 1952.  She tried in 1953 1955 and 1958 to get elected in Tokyo as a center-right candidate and failed in center-left Tokyo.  After that she shifted her effort to helping her husband in Kumamoto.  When Sonoda senior died in 1984 both she and her stepson Sonoda Hiroyuki claimed the mantel of Sonoda senior.  LDP high command was neutral so both ran as independents, but several powerful LDP factions backed Sonoda Hiroyuki who won in this famous political family fued.   Sonoda Tenkōkō  only passed away in early 2015 at age 96.  While she was a feminist Socialist fire-band in the 1940s toward the 1980s she has moved to extreme right and was very connected to the highly revisionist Nihon Kaigi (日本会議).  

 As for Sonoda junior he was part of the 1993 rebellion against LDP by joining NPS (New Party Sakigake) and was able to win in 1996 as a NPS candidate.  He rejoined LDP in 1998.  Then in 2010 he joined the extreme right LDP splinter SPJ (Sunrise Party of Japan) of Hiranuma Takeo (平沼 赳夫) before joining JRP as part of merger of SPJ into JRP.  He then joined the split of FPG from JRP in 2014 before leaving for a few months to try to revive SPJ and then coming back to FPG.  Now he has rejoined LDP.  It seems that Sonada junior never made up with his stepmother even as both share the same extreme right revisionist beliefs.

[jaichind]

Now that diet session is over there are efforts for party alliance realignment.  DPJ and JIP are trying to work out a common manifesto for 2016 Upper House elections with an eye perhaps on a merger that also includes PLP and SDP.  JCP is proposing an all Japan alliance with DPJ and JIP and for a post election united front government.  On the hawk side, there are talk that PGP, AEJ and the Hashimoto party, once it forms, forms an rightist hawkish alliance that can act as an alliance partner for LDP.  Abe seems keen on such an alliance as there is fear that KP might lose support in 2016 Upper House elections as its MPs voted for the new security law even as the KP base grassroots seems negative on the new laws.   

[jaichind]

Wait the PLP? They're inviting freaking Ichiro Ozawa back? Lmao

It is more the JIP guys are pushing it.  JIP wants all 4 parties (DPJ JIP SDP and PLP) to dissolve and merge into a new party.  DPJ wants the rest of them to merge into DPJ which could but does not have to include PLP.   

[jaichind]

Looks like Hashimoto's new national party will be called Osaka Restoration Association which will focus on Osaka.  So again not sure how national this party really is.  Hashimoto insist that Osaka being in the name is a symbol of the new party's desire to push for regional autonomy and regulation.  The new party will push for direct election of PM.  It seems that Osaka governor Matsui will lead the party and will run for reelection Nov 22 along with Upper House JIP MP Katayama Toranosuke (片山 虎之助) who as I mentioned before has a FPG background .  Also as mentioned before JIP MP Yoshimura will run for mayor for ORA on the same day.  Everything depends on winning both races.  As expected at the national level this new party will be pro-Abe when it comes to foreign policy issues.

Hashimoto denounced the current JIP as a "fake" but did reconfirm that he will retire from politics but I am pretty sure no one believes him on this one.

[jaichind]

Latest on JIP split

Pro-Hashimoto bloc has 17 MP (11 Lower House 6 Upper House)  - really 10 Lower House since one pro-Hashimoto MP resigned to run for Osaka Mayor.

Anti-Hashimoto bloc has 26 MP (21 Lower House and 5 Upper Hoise)

Neutral bloc has 8 Lower House MPs.  

What seems to be driving choices is not just ideology (OSA background for sure going for Hashimoto while PFG and LDP background mostly for Hashimoto while YP DPJ PLP background should be mostly anti-Hashimoto) but especially for Lower House MPs, re-election prospects.  Several FPG and LDP lower House MPs are in the neutral bloc since for them to win re-election they need to go up against LDP candidates.  Just like several Okinawa and DPJ background MPs which should be anti-Hashimoto choose to be in the pro-Hashimoto camp or neutral because DPJ already has formed anti-LDP alliances in their district ergo there is no place for them during re-election if they side with JIP which means siding with DPJ.   It is also easier for DPJ or YP background Upper House MPs who won on PR to go with Hashimoto because they can always run on the PR slate.  The new Hashimoto party outside of Kinki will not do well in district seats but the party as a whole could get up to 8% of the national vote which would mean 4 PR MPs in the Upper House PR list.  

[jaichind]

For Osaka mayor election it is all set.  It will be LDP's Akira Yanagimoto (柳本顕) who is a member of the Osaka city council versus ORA's Hirofumi Yoshimura (吉村洋文) who is a current JIP MP from Osaka.  As expected for Osaka politics, DPJ and JCP will back the LDP candidate.  In Osaka it is now mostly everyone gang up on OAA.  For Hashimoto this is a must win if he is able to prove his new Osaka based national party can go anywhere.

As for Osaka governor ORA will run Ichirō Matsui (松井一郎) for reelection and the anti-ORA front is still trying to work out who will challange him.  Kunio Hiramatsu (平松 邦夫) who was mayor of Osaka is offering himself as a compromise candidate.  Kunio Hiramatsu was first elected as Osaka mayor back in 2007 backed by DPJ but lost re-election to Hashimoto in 2011.

[jaichind]

JIP expelled the Osaka based 12 MPs.  About 16 JIP MPs are expected to join the new Hashimoto Party of ORA.  The formation of the new party is being delayed to dispute the expulsion.  At stake are the $20+ million worth subsidies JIP gets annually based on their vote share on the PR slate.  ORA will claim that JIP split so they deserve their share of the money whereas JIP claims the pro-Hashimoto faction were expelled so they deserve nothing.  This will most likely go to the courts.

[jaichind]

Latest polls has ORA well ahead for the Osaka Governor election where Matsui Ichirō (松井一郎) is running for reelection



For the Osaka mayor race ORA's Yoshimura Hirofumi (吉村洋文) has a slight lead

[jaichind]

New scandal.  New Minister for Reconstruction Takagi Tsuyoshi (高木毅) is accused of having multiple counts of stealing women's underwear some 30 years ago.  Takagi is not responding to these allegations.   

[jaichind]

Miyagi (宮城) Prefecture elections this Sunday.  This prefecture always had a slight anti-LDP lean.  Of course just like every other prefecture, LDP dominates the prefecture assembly.   YP did very well last time so it would be interesting to see where the YP vote went and if DPJ could make advances due to the new Security law.

[jaichind]

Miyagi (宮城) Prefecture elections voting mostly done.  Turnout is projected to be around 27%-28% as of 6pm which is a massive drop from 2011, which in turn was a low.  So turnout overall will be lower than 2011.



Most likely this will help LDP-KP and JCP.

[jaichind]

Miyagi (宮城) Prefecture elections.  Will have more details later.  LDP-KP mostly holding their own with some minor losses relative to 2011.  JCP makes large advances relative to SDP and to some extent DPJ.  The 2011 YP vote seems to have been split evenly JIP as well as other post-YP parties or independents, LDP, and DPJ.

[jaichind]

Miyagi (宮城) Prefecture has LDP-KP losing a bit of ground since 2011.  This is mostly because of some LDP rebels that are running and won with implicit DPJ support and most likely win caucus with DPJ.  JIP and YP retained some of the YP support from 2011 but some of it leaked back to LDP.  JCP surged mostly due to fears over TPP getting vote share from DPJ and SDP.

Results are (I always count pro-DPJ and pro-SDP independents under DPJ and SDP as well pro-LDP independents which I count under LDP)

2015            

Party       Candidate         Wins            Vote Share
LDP             43                 32                 48.92%
KP                 4                   4                   7.11%
JIP                 3                   1                   2.38%
Post-YP          3                   2                   3.44%
DPJ              16                 10                 18.95%
SDP               3                   2                   4.16%
JCP                9                   8                  12.80%
Ind.               5                   0                    2.24%



2011

Party       Candidate         Wins            Vote Share
LDP             41                 34                 49.07%
KP                 4                   4                   6.93%
YP                 8                   4                   9.36%
DPJ              18                   9                 18.89%
SDP               5                   4                   5.29%
JCP                7                   4                   7.33%
Ind.               7                   0                   3.13%




2007

Party       Candidate         Wins            Vote Share
LDP             47                 39                 54.98%
KP                 4                   4                   6.25%
DPJ              18                 12                 22.68%
SDP               7                   4                   7.90%
JCP                8                   2                   7.25%
Ind.               2                   0                   0.94%

[jaichind]

The current status of JIP split is that ORA was formed  with 20 of JIP MPs joining up.  There are a few more that could join but they are waiting for results of the Osaka Mayor and Governor election of next weekend 11/15.  Meanwhile in DPJ there are now pressures to dissolve the DPJ so a DPJ-JIP merger can take place under a new name.  The current plan is for DPJ and JIP to form one caucus.   

[jaichind]

Fukushima (福島) Prefecture elections tomorrow.  LDP tends to be weaker here but LDP-KP should be able to keep their majority. 

[jaichind]

Fukushima (福島) Prefecture elections.  LDP seems to be doing well in rural areas where votes counts are coming in.  Nothing in urban areas yet where JCP will do well.

In 2011 it was

LDP           32
KP              3
YP               1
DPJ            16
SDP            1
JCP             5

Now so far it is

LDP          19
KP              1
DPJ            7
JCP            1

with LDP clearly gaining a couple of seats from DPJ in rural areas.

[jaichind]

Fukushima (福島) Prefecture elections.  Some more results coming in from urban areas

In 2011 it was

LDP           32
KP              3
YP               1
DPJ            16
SDP            1
JCP             5

Now so far it is

LDP          22
KP              1
JIP              1
DPJ            9
JCP            2

with LDP clearly gaining a couple of seats from DPJ in rural areas.  The YP winner of 2011 is now running and winning as a JIP backed independent. 

[jaichind]

Fukushima (福島) Prefecture elections.  Some more results coming in from urban areas

In 2011 it was

LDP           32
KP              3
YP               1
DPJ            16
SDP            1
JCP             5

Now so far it is

LDP          24
KP              1
JIP              1
DPJ           10
JCP             4

LDP most likely will repeat its 2011 result of 32 seats.  A couple of LDP backed independents might caucus with JIP.  LDP will most likely gain in terms of vote share.

[jaichind]

Fukushima (福島) Prefecture elections.  Some more results coming in from urban areas

In 2011 it was

LDP           32
KP              3
YP               1
DPJ            16
SDP            1
JCP             5

Now so far it is

LDP          24
KP              1
JIP              1
DPJ           12
JCP             4

LDP losing ground a bit in urban mostly because of superior DPJ nomination strategy.  JCP not doing as well as expected.
 

[jaichind]

Fukushima (福島) Prefecture elections.  Some more results coming in from urban areas

In 2011 it was

LDP           32
KP              3
YP               1
DPJ            16
SDP            1
JCP             5

Now so far it is

LDP          26
KP              1
JIP              1
DPJ           12
JCP             4

Only results from Fukushima City (福島市) Koriyama (郡山市) are outstanding. My back-of-the-envelope guess of what the final results will be

LDP          33
KP              3
JIP              1
DPJ           15
SDP            1
JCP             5

[jaichind]

Fukushima (福島) Prefecture elections.  Some more results coming in from urban areas

In 2011 it was

LDP           32
KP              3
YP               1
DPJ            16
SDP            1
JCP             5

Now so far it is

LDP          31
KP              2
JIP              1
DPJ           14
JCP             5

Only results from Fukushima City (福島市) are outstanding.  DPJ doing a better there than I expected.  I now project

LDP          32
KP              3
JIP              1
DPJ           16
SDP            1
JCP             5

Which means no change from 2011.  Net net, LDP gains ground in rural areas and loses ground in urban areas.

[jaichind]

Fukushima (福島) Prefecture elections all races called

In 2011 it was

LDP           32
KP              3
YP               1
DPJ            16
SDP            1
JCP             5

2015 results are

LDP          32
KP              3
JIP              1
DPJ           16
SDP            1
JCP             5

I will have vote share calculations later.  Like I said before, LDP did gain ground from DPJ in rural areas but lost ground to DPJ in urban areas most due to superior DPJ nomination strategies.  JCP did not do as well as expected.

[jaichind]

Fukushima (福島) Prefecture elections comparison between 2007 2011 2015

I lumped pro-LDP independents with LDP and pro-DPJ independents with DPJ.  


2015

Party               Contested             Won            Vote Share
LDP                     40                     32                  48.06%
KP                         3                       3                    6.71%
JIP                        3                       1                    2.22%
DPJ                     21                     16                   27.95%
SDP                      2                       1                     2.71%
JCP                       6                       5                    10.71%
Independents        4                       0                     1.64%
                                  


2011

Party               Contested             Won            Vote Share
LDP                     40                     32                  50.90%
KP                         3                       3                    6.37%
YP                         3                       1                    2.55%
DPJ                     27                     16                   26.44%
SDP                      4                       1                     3.63%
JCP                       6                       5                     8.70%
Independents       5                      0                      1.40%



2007

Party               Contested             Won            Vote Share
LDP                     44                     32                  53.11%
KP                         3                       3                    6.20%
DPJ                     21                     17                   26.86%
SDP                      4                       3                     5.15%
JCP                       6                       3                     8.12%
Independents       2                       0                      0.56%


While it seems that DPJ and JCP gained vote share against LDP since 2011 it is not really the case.  In 2015 the DPJ decided not to contest as much as they did in 2011 in LDP dominated seats in rural areas.  This has the effect of artifically lowering the LDP vote share since there were more districts where voting was not necessary.  Looking  the rural seats where the DPJ did confront LDP as well as urban seats it is clear that LDP gained on DPJ in rural areas while DPJ and JCP gained on LDP in urban areas.  So in terms of level of support 2015 is also pretty much a wash relative to 2011 for the LDP.  In that sense this is not a bad result for DPJ since 2011 is mostly seen as the nadir of the LDP in local elections.



Another way to look at the data to understand the urban/rural dynamics is to just look at the 4 urban election districts and compare 2007 2011 and 2015 results there since all 4 districts are contested.  These 4 urban districts make up 31 out of 58 seats.

2015

Party               Contested             Won            Vote Share
LDP                     17                     13                  42.59%
KP                         3                       3                  10.42%
JIP                        3                       1                    3.45%
DPJ                     11                       9                   24.74%
SDP                      2                       1                     4.21%
JCP                       5                       4                   13.52%
Independents        2                       0                     1.07%
                                  


2011

Party               Contested             Won            Vote Share
LDP                     17                     15                  42.47%
KP                         3                       3                   11.46%
YP                         3                       1                    4.59%
DPJ                     12                       7                  22.54%
SDP                      3                       1                     5.51%
JCP                       5                       4                   12.54%
Independents       5                       0                     0.90%



2007

Party               Contested             Won            Vote Share
LDP                     20                     15                  49.05%
KP                         3                       3                  10.13%
DPJ                       8                       7                   21.25%
SDP                      4                       3                     8.42%
JCP                       5                       3                   10.43%
Independents        1                       0                    0.72%

It seems clear what took place.  LDP+KP vote share dropped about 1% in urban areas between 2011 and 2015 and because DPJ+SDP nominated less people they were able to gain 2 seats from LDP with a 1% growth in vote share.  JCP also gained a bit in vote share.

In rural areas, DPJ contested less seats giving LDP a bunch of walkovers and DPJ lost two open seats to LDP, one of them where DPJ did not bother to put up a candidate even thought DPJ held the seats.  

So this election is about DPJ getting smarter in urban areas plus a small swing.  In rural areas it is mostly LDP vs DPJ head to head and DPJ continues to lose confidence as turnout falls and it finds it hard to win against the LDP larger vote base absent the floating vote actually turning out.  This same trend was going on from 2007 to 2011 as most of the gains by DPJ against LDP in that period was also clearly in urban areas.

[jaichind]

Major setback for Abe.  Japan July-September GDP shrinks annualized 0.8%.  Japan is now in recession a second time since the Abe administration began in Dec 2012.  There will now be pressure for a extra budget which will run into resistance from the powerful Ministry of Finance.  There will also be pressure for yet another round of QE.  Of course if QE is stepped up and continues at that pace in the BOJ will pretty much own all Japanese public debt in a decade or so.

[jaichind]

Osaka mayor and Osaka governor election tomorrow.  Right now it seems ORA seems to be well placed to win both races over LDP.