France 2012: the official thread

[big bad fab]

No other predictions ?
Tender ?

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #52 - 23 April 2012   


(the current thread was locked, so I'm a bit late to give you these numbers here )      

With raw datas (as usual):
Hollande 55,11
Sarkozy 44,89

With vote transfers datas applied to real first round results:
Hollande 54.59
Sarkozy 45.41

Daily IFOP poll steady at 55-45 since Monday.

On my blog, an analysis of pollsters: Harris is the best one !... behind the Big Bad Tracker of course !

Harris clearly ahead, with IFOP, TNS-Sofres, OpinionWay and IPSOS not so far away.
LH2 and CSA are quite bad. BVA is bad.

[big bad fab]

Sarko is going nuts... Even more than expected.

From what little I've read, it appear's that he's going balls-to-the-wall in attempting to woo the FN... even if he does convince Le Pen voters to show up and vote for him in the second round, isn't he scaring off a lot more moderates in the process?

I think so, yeah. I think Fabien agrees, too. He's shooting himself in the foot with this strategy.

SIGH....

Read my blog tonight... read the numbers of vote transfers in the daily IFOP poll... gasp !

Juppé président !

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #53 - 27 April 2012   

      

With raw datas (as usual):
Hollande 54.59
Sarkozy 45.41

With vote transfers datas applied to real first round results:
Hollande 53.59
Sarkozy 46.41

Expect far worse numbers for Sarkozy on Monday...

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #54 - 30 April 2012   

      

With raw datas (as usual):
Hollande 54.34
Sarkozy 45.66

With vote transfers datas applied to real first round results:
Hollande 54.20
Sarkozy 45.80

My two trackers are almost even: so, who will try to beat Hollande in 2017 ?

[big bad fab]

2012 Big Bad Tracker #54 - 30 April 2012   

      

With raw datas (as usual):
Hollande 54.34
Sarkozy 45.66

With vote transfers datas applied to real first round results:
Hollande 54.20
Sarkozy 45.80

My two trackers are almost even: so, who will try to beat Hollande in 2017 ?

I re-post this, just in case...
Come on guys, this is not a "general discussion thread"....

[big bad fab]

I'm a bit lazy to explain it in English (go to my blog ).
But it was a paradoxical debate, Hollande being even more aggressive than Sarkozy (yes, Antonio) but Sarkozy being unable not to speak about his five years and sometimes being silent...
Paradoxical also because Sarko wasn't so good on immigration, has probably gained more ground in the center than in the far-right and because Hollande didn't hesitate to drop Greens and even leftists, being able to please some Le Pen voters.

So, yes, Hollande has probably won because he hasn't lost and because Sarko wasn't, deeply inside, self-confident. And, eventually, all is back to the beginning: views of Sarko's record and Hollande pushing himself as "normal". All this campaign and this debate for nothing....

I doubt the debate will have an effect on polls, overall.
Let's expect 53-47 (but my prediction will probably be different, based on my last tracker, on Friday night).

[big bad fab]

If someone is able to explain me why, I'll consider him the greatest psephologist of all times.

Sarkozy ?

Highlighted to make it clearer. Doesn't that sound clear in English ? Because if I spelt the sentence in French there would be no doubt on who the "him" would refer to.

OK, I read the sentence too fast. But now I understand what you wanna say.

Why is Sarkozy closing the gap ?

Sarkozy collecting most of the right- and center-voters of which there are a lot according to the first round.

Even if 15% of Melenchon's voters vote for Sarkozy, Hollande could be in trouble if many LePen voters also hold their noses and vote for Sarkozy.

But, the good thing is that Bayrou's decision today might have saved Hollande from a really close race.

Bayrou's endorsement won't have any effect: it just pollutes the last days of campaign for Sarkozy.
We are on something like 53-47 currently (my last tracker tomorrow ).

Have just published the latest polls on my blog. CSA 53-47, LH2 53-47, OpinionWay 52.5-47.5, IFOP 53-47, Harris 53-47.
Last BVA was 53.5-46.5 and last IPSOS 53-47.
Let's wait for IFOP tomorrow and maybe IPSOS and TNS-Sofres.

(Math would ba ble to tell us which polls are planned, but he doesn't post any longer since I've noticed he stole one article from my blog Too bad !)

[big bad fab]

Why can't the troll go to the prediction thread I've opened ?
It's not aimed to remain a very serious and useful thread, so... go there, please

[big bad fab]

BREAKING NEWS !
2012 Big Bad Tracker #55 - 4 May 2012   


My very last tracker !!!       

With raw datas :
Hollande 52.95
Sarkozy 47.05

With vote transfers datas applied to real first round results:
Hollande 52.97
Sarkozy 47.03

No, I haven't cheated.

Simple average of all the last polls of each pollster, without weighting: 52.75 / 47.25
Weighted average of all the last polls of each pollster: 52.70 / 47.30

Now, you can go to the prediction thread and put all the mess you want