LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[Frenchrepublican]

Here are county ratings I made for all three races.



And I should tell you what I'm currently expecting as well so it makes sense...

KY: 52.0-44.5 Bevin (slightly worse margin than last time, but the county swings are going to be ridiculous)

LA: 50.5-49.5 Edwards

MS: 53.5-45.5 Reeves (almost exact margin of MS special senate race. Counties are exactly the same too)

You might be too optimistic with Beshear's chances in Kentucky. I'm not sure if Elliott County will vote Democratic at this point.

He will carry it without any doubt. Last year even the sacrificial lamb who ran against Hal Rogers and who barely won 20% won close to 45% in Elliott.

But 2018 was the first time ever that Rogers won Elliott County against a Democratic opponent. And as we've seen with the Louisiana jungle primary and the NC-09 special election, rural trends against the Democrats are proceeding in full force.

If Beshear wins at least 41% statewide, he will carry Elliott.

[Calthrina950]

Here are county ratings I made for all three races.



And I should tell you what I'm currently expecting as well so it makes sense...

KY: 52.0-44.5 Bevin (slightly worse margin than last time, but the county swings are going to be ridiculous)

LA: 50.5-49.5 Edwards

MS: 53.5-45.5 Reeves (almost exact margin of MS special senate race. Counties are exactly the same too)

You might be too optimistic with Beshear's chances in Kentucky. I'm not sure if Elliott County will vote Democratic at this point.

He will carry it without any doubt. Last year even the sacrificial lamb who ran against Hal Rogers and who barely won 20% won close to 45% in Elliott.

But 2018 was the first time ever that Rogers won Elliott County against a Democratic opponent. And as we've seen with the Louisiana jungle primary and the NC-09 special election, rural trends against the Democrats are proceeding in full force.

If Beshear wins at least 41% statewide, he will carry Elliott.

Jim Gray got 43% in 2016 against Rand Paul, and he carried Elliott 56-44, while Trump was carrying the county 70-26. So I suppose that it's possible, even though as I've said, the rural trends since then may hand the county to Bevin. We will have to see.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Beshear definitely wins Jefferson, Fayette, Franklin and probably wins Elliott, Nicholas, Marion, Woodford, Rowan, Nelson, Bourbon.

I’m sure this will age well as those “Likely D LA Gov” posts

[Politician]

Beshear definitely wins Jefferson, Fayette, Franklin and probably wins Elliott, Nicholas, Marion, Woodford, Rowan, Nelson, Bourbon.

I’m sure this will age well as those “Likely D LA Gov” posts

Uh, saying LA-GOV was Likely D was reasonable based on the information at the time and my final pre-runoff rating was Lean D, but thanks for playing

Since I know you're going to dig up one dumb thing I said, here was my final primary prediction which was no further off than yours:

Edwards 49
Rispone 25
Abraham 22

[I Can Now Die Happy]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FBVwX53kF5s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inxZ3kJJyDM

Wow, didn't know that JBE was so bad for Louisiana's economy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=so3LhNWs9R4

Wow, didn't know that JBE tried to push Stacy Abrams on Georgia and that she is trying to help him win.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPnFrtLcsGo

Wow, didn't know that so many Democrat governors / candidates for gubernatorial races were so bad.

It's looking worse for JBE every day.

[Calthrina950]

Beshear definitely wins Jefferson, Fayette, Franklin and probably wins Elliott, Nicholas, Marion, Woodford, Rowan, Nelson, Bourbon.

I’m sure this will age well as those “Likely D LA Gov” posts

Uh, saying LA-GOV was Likely D was reasonable based on the information at the time and my final pre-runoff rating was Lean D, but thanks for playing

Since I know you're going to dig up one dumb thing I said, here was my final primary prediction which was no further off than yours:

Edwards 49
Rispone 25
Abraham 22

Jim Gray won Nicholas, Marion, and Rowan in 2016, in addition to Jefferson, Franklin, Fayette, and Elliott. But given rural trends, I doubt that Beshear will carry Nicholas and Marion, and I've already expressed my doubts about Elliott. He does have a shot in Rowan, since it did reject Kim Davis last year, but it's out there. I earnestly wouldn't be surprised if Beshear carried the Democratic base counties and nothing else.

[Skill and Chance]

Beshear definitely wins Jefferson, Fayette, Franklin and probably wins Elliott, Nicholas, Marion, Woodford, Rowan, Nelson, Bourbon.

I’m sure this will age well as those “Likely D LA Gov” posts

I mean, I could see Beshear losing by only 5 and only carrying Jefferson, Franklin, and Fayette.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Beshear definitely wins Jefferson, Fayette, Franklin and probably wins Elliott, Nicholas, Marion, Woodford, Rowan, Nelson, Bourbon.

I’m sure this will age well as those “Likely D LA Gov” posts

I mean, I could see Beshear losing by only 5 and only carrying Jefferson, Franklin, and Fayette.

Those weren’t the counties I had an issue with. Those are all obviously Safe D.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

if trends are indeed real, shouldn't Beshear be winning Kenton, Campbell & Warren even as he's resoundingly defeated statewide?

In a close race, sure. Assuming a close race is what I take issue with.

#trendsarereal doesn’t mean Beshear will win Oldham County lmao. Only that those areas will give him some of the strongest swing

[jamestroll]

Only 28 day and around 16 hours until many of the Parishes that voted for Jindal in 2003 save JBE!

[ElectionsGuy]

if trends are indeed real, shouldn't Beshear be winning Kenton, Campbell & Warren even as he's resoundingly defeated statewide?

No. Trends would suggest they should be good bellwethers (and that's even assuming they catch up to presidential/congressional trends in a Governor race). What you just described is the trends on steroids outcome.

[ElectionsGuy]

Give me a Break! Beshear will win a lot more than just 6 Counties. Jesus.

You should learn from the election of your name. Democrats can win or narrowly lose with very few large counties with large concentrations of vote. I'm bound to be wrong on at least a few counties on that map, but for him to win any more than 10 counties is a far reach even if he's winning or close to winning.

[lfromnj]

if trends are indeed real, shouldn't Beshear be winning Kenton, Campbell & Warren even as he's resoundingly defeated statewide?

No. Trends would suggest they should be good bellwethers (and that's even assuming they catch up to presidential/congressional trends in a Governor race). What you just described is the trends on steroids outcome.

However JBE really shouldn't have won Jefferson by 6 while losing the 2 party vote by 6

[Fuzzy Bear]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FBVwX53kF5s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=inxZ3kJJyDM

Wow, didn't know that JBE was so bad for Louisiana's economy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=so3LhNWs9R4

Wow, didn't know that JBE tried to push Stacy Abrams on Georgia and that she is trying to help him win.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPnFrtLcsGo

Wow, didn't know that so many Democrat governors / candidates for gubernatorial races were so bad.

It's looking worse for JBE every day.

Stacey Abrams is a plus for JBE.  He needs every black vote he can get to win.  His best bet is for Presidential level turnout for black voters and Special Election level turnout for white voters.

[elephantower]

This analysis is just dumb, sorry. Go take my money on PredictIt if you think Edwards has a realistic shot -- he's trading at 30c right now. When it's a 1v1 race, it'll be a lot easier for the GOP to nationalize the race & increase partisanship. Trump's going to use this as a chance to demonstrate his popularity to GOP congresspeople to prepare for potential impeachment hearings, and I'm quite confident most Edwards-Trump voters are more attached to Trump than they are to JBE. As JBE also needs gain 2.6pp from the GOP to win, he only has a ~20% chance (mostly concentrated in a major scandal, extreme weather event, etc).

[I Can Now Die Happy]

I’m going to assume JBE gets 48% statewide. It’s the 46.6% he got, plus Oscar Dantzler’s 0.8%, plus an addition 0.6%. I’m going to apply a uniform 1.4% swing to every single parish . These are very approximate, as I’m also using parish percentages from: https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/Graphical

...which rounds percentages to the nearest whole number. For instance, Acadia is listed as having 25% for JBE (even though NYtimes has it as the more precise 24.9%). So it’ll be 25%+1.4% = 27.4% instead of 24.9+1.4. I’m using voteportal.sos.la.gov instead of NYTimes because it conveniently lists all the parishes in alphabetical order. Add 2% to each of these to get a 50% statewide JBE win. Obviously we won’t be getting uniform swings, but it’ll be convenient for election night predictions when early results come in.

Acadia: 27.4%

Allen: 36.4%

Ascension: 45.4%

Assumption: 52.4%

Ayoyelles: 41.4%

Beauregard: 26.4%

Bienville: 49.4%

Bossier: 31.4%

Caddo: 54.4%

Calcasieu: 45.4%

Caldwell: 22.4%

Cameron: 26.4%

Catahoula: 30.4%

Clairborne: 42.4%

Concordia: 41.4%

De Soto: 42.4%

East Baton Rouge: 63.4%

East Carroll Parish: 62.4%

East Feliciana: 54.4%

Evangeline: 36.4%

Franklin: 28.4%

Grant: 22.4%

Iberia: 36.4%

Iberville: 64.4%

Jackson: 34.4%

Jefferson: 54.4%

Jefferson Davis: 33.4%

Lafayette: 38.4%

Lafourche: 36.4%

Lasalle: 14.4%

Lincoln: 41.4%

Livingston: 29.4%

Madison: 55.4%

Morehouse: 43.4%

Natchitoches: 48.4%

Orleans: 88.4%

Ouachita: 38.4%

Plaquemines: 46.4%

Pointe Coupee: 55.4%

Rapides: 39.4%

Red River: 45.4%

Richland: 33.4%

Sabine: 19.4%

St. Bernard: 51.4%

St. Charles: 48.4%

St. Helena: 69.4%

St. James: 64.4%

St. John the Baptist: 70.4%

St. Landry: 47.4%

St. Martin: 36.4%

St. Mary: 41.4%

St. Tammany: 39.4%

Tangipahoa: 49.4%

Tensas: 53.4%

Terrebonne: 35.4%

Union: 28.4%

Vermilion: 23.4%

Vernon: 23.4%

Washington: 44.4%

Webster: 38.4%

West Baton Rouge: 56.4%

West Carroll: 21.4%

West Feliciana: 53.4%

Winn: 31.4%

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Actually, because I have enough free time at the moment, let me apply uniform swings to the NYTimes non-rounded results to see what a JBE 50% win would look like.  Adding 3.4% to JBE's result in each Parish. This won't be in alphabetical order, but rather 'approximate geographical' order, where I'll start in the upper north west, go from west to east, then go south once I reach the furthest eastern boundary, starting from west to east again.

Caddo: 56.6%
Bossier: 33.1%
Webster: 40.1%
Claiborne: 44.6%
Union: 29.9%
Morehouse: 45.0%
West Carroll: 23.3%
East Carroll: 64.2%
Bienville: 51.1%
Lincoln: 43.8%
Ouachita: 41.2%
Richland: 35.3%
Madison: 57.2%
De Soto: 44.5%
Red River: 47.7%
Natchitoches: 49.9%
Winn:33.0%
Caldwell: 24.7%
Franklin: 30.2%
Tensas: 55.6%
Sabine: 21.3%
Grant: 24.4%
LaSalle: 16.8%
Catahoula: 32.4%
Concordia: 43.0%
Vernon: 25.3%
Ayoyelles: 43.6%
Beauregard: 28.4%
Allen: 38.3%
Evangeline: 38.9%
St. Landry: 49.6%
Pointe Coupee: 57.1%
West Baton Rouge: 58.5%
East Baton Rouge: 65.2%
Livingston: 31.4%
Tangipahoa: 51.2%
Washington: 46.3%
St. Tammany: 41.1%
Calcasieu: 47.0%
Jefferson Davis: 35.6%
Acadia: 28.3%
Lafayette: 40.2%
St. Martin: 38.4%
Iberville: 66.3%
Ascension: 47.3%
St. John the Baptist: 72.3%
St. Charles: 50.6%
Jefferson: 56.3%
Orleans: 90.4%
St. Bernard: 53.3%
Plaquemines: 48.8%
Lafourche: 38.7%
Terebonne: 37.4%
St. Mary: 43.5%
Iberia: 38.8%
Vermillion: 25.6%
Cameron: 28.3%

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1190785476581572608

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1190800755596222465

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1190785476581572608

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1190800755596222465

The example he points to for high turnout, Vermillion, only gave JBE 22% in the primary. If thats the trend he chooses to point out, JBE should be concerned.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1190785476581572608

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1190800755596222465

The example he points to for high turnout, Vermillion, only gave JBE 22% in the primary. If thats the trend he chooses to point out, JBE should be concerned.

I still find it to be a shame how Edwards is in the fight of his political life, when in a less polarized environment, he would be sailing to reelection. He has none of the privileges afforded to Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan, and Phil Scott. Republican voters in Louisiana, it is clear at this point, make no distinction between him and the national Democratic Party. His support for the fetal heartbeat bill earlier this year may not save him from defeat, which makes it all a fruitless effort.

[Cinemark]

Im not gonna read too much into anecdotal reports, especially since we're getting actually numbers soon.

[MT Treasurer]

I still find it to be a shame how Edwards is in the fight of his political life, when in a less polarized environment, he would be sailing to reelection. He has none of the privileges afforded to Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan, and Phil Scott. Republican voters in Louisiana, it is clear at this point, make no distinction between him and the national Democratic Party. His support for the fetal heartbeat bill earlier this year may not save him from defeat, which makes it all a fruitless effort.

They can’t really attack him on his abortion record so they’re tying him to Clinton.

https://t.co/IJJybqNXPC

[Tender Branson]

One should not read too much into these early voting numbers ...

I expect turnout to be a bit higher though: 1.4-1.5 million

[Frenchrepublican]

I still find it to be a shame how Edwards is in the fight of his political life, when in a less polarized environment, he would be sailing to reelection. He has none of the privileges afforded to Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan, and Phil Scott. Republican voters in Louisiana, it is clear at this point, make no distinction between him and the national Democratic Party. His support for the fetal heartbeat bill earlier this year may not save him from defeat, which makes it all a fruitless effort.

They can’t really attack him on his abortion record so they’re tying him to Clinton.

https://t.co/IJJybqNXPC

Well, it’s factually true, he supported Clinton in 2016

[Frenchrepublican]

Early voting numbers are in and they are far better for Edwards than those of the jungle primary
https://electionstatistics.sos.la.gov/Data/Early_Voting_Statistics/Statewide/2019_1116_StatewideStats.pdf

89.6 k early votes casted
Democrats : 45.3% (44% for the first day of the primary)
Republicans : 39.1% (42% for the first day of the primary)

Whites : 66%
Blacks : 30.8%

Generally speaking weekend days are more favourable to democrats than week days.