LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[Skill and Chance]

It's either going to be a JBE majority blowout in the 1st round (most likely IMO) or a close 51/49ish runoff either way if he can't close the deal in October.   

[Skill and Chance]

The risk for Edwards is a runoff with Rispone after he surprised for 2nd in the primary round.  Otherwise, JBE is clearly favored.

[Skill and Chance]

Here is my final Jungle Primary Prediction

Edwards 43%
Rispone 30%
Abraham 20%

If it's that close, Edwards is losing the runoff. 

[Skill and Chance]

If Edwards wins this year, I wouldn't be surprised if it is decades before a Democrat prevails here again.

I'm not so sure about that.  There's a viable urban/suburban path to a statewide win if the New Orleans suburbs move left enough.  Breaking records in New Orleans and Baton Rouge was already a substantial part of how JBE got elected in 2015.

[Skill and Chance]

Beshear definitely wins Jefferson, Fayette, Franklin and probably wins Elliott, Nicholas, Marion, Woodford, Rowan, Nelson, Bourbon.

I’m sure this will age well as those “Likely D LA Gov” posts

I mean, I could see Beshear losing by only 5 and only carrying Jefferson, Franklin, and Fayette.

[Skill and Chance]

If (big if) the runoff EV still looks like this after the last day, I think Edwards could cross 52%.

[Skill and Chance]

After Beshear's win and Reeves winning by less than 6, and with the runoff early voting looking more Dem friendly than the primary, I think Edwards will be OK.  Tempted to move to Lean D.

[Skill and Chance]

This all looks very good for JBE when compared to the primary round.  

Primary EV was:

74% white
24% black

43% Dem
42% Rep

and JBE got 46.6%

Runoff EV is:

68% white
29.5% black

45.6% Dem
39.2% Rep

I don't know what to make of the Dem vs. Rep numbers as there are likely to be a lot of 70-year-old registered Dems in Cajun country turning out for Rispone and also a good number of 35-year-old registered Reps in Metairie and Baton Rouge turning out for JBE.  

One caveat is the primary EV was influenced by a major college football game on the October 12th election day.  College football is one of the most Republican-leaning major sports, and Primary round EV ended up being more Republican than the election day day vote, which is historically unusual.

As someone mentioned earlier, this time the big college football game is today, on the last day of EV, with a much less exciting matchup next Saturday.  If college football is indeed driving when people vote, we would expect to see a very Dem turnout today and a better election day relative to EV for Republicans in the runoff.  Even without a Dem EV surge today, this is looking like "enough" for JBE when compared to the primary EV.  

Between defeating JBE or getting a supermajority in the State House, which do you think will be easier for LA Republicans?  This has potentially important implications for redistricting, as a JBE veto of the 2021 maps could force 2 separate Dem leaning CDs in NOLA and Baton Rouge and keep Republicans structurally below a legislative supermajority through the 2020's.  After seeing the 2 suburban Trump districts flip in MS and a couple of the rural seats hold, I think JBE will be able to get his vetoes sustained in any scenario where he wins reelection.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/JohnBelforLA/status/1193330290812321792

FTR, the LSU coach is a JBE supporter. He's appeared in JBE football-themed ads before  hand, and it's not that hard to recognize that JBE wants to milk this for all its got.

I believe there is some research showing the home team winning a big game helps incumbents.

[Skill and Chance]

Dems will always have mayors/state legislators they can run because of NOLA and Baton Rouge.  If and when they get someone elected to a seat in Metairie, that person should look at running statewide in the next cycle.  Any wins going forward (including JBE if he pulls through next Saturday) are likely to be with the new urban-suburban coalition- winning NOLA and EBR near unanimously, getting a big margin out of Jefferson and Caddo, and keeping Calcasieu and St. Tammany closee.

[Skill and Chance]

Wow, what a shift in the EV from the primary to the runoff.  This opens up the possibility of a JBE win by 6-10, though I do expect election day voting to favor Rispone more, so probably more like a 2.5-5% JBE win in the end.  

[Skill and Chance]

I think Abraham ran better everywhere in early voting than he did on election day in the primary because he was better organized and had establishment support while Rispone has no organization, so I guess that could be reflected here to.

Actually the LA Oct primary was one of the rare elections where Republicans did worse in election day voting than they did in EV across the board.  That was likely influenced by college football, and the timing of the big game this time (it happened yesterday vs. on the Oct primary election day) favors a better R performance on election day vs. in EV.

[Skill and Chance]

Yes, perhaps I should be more careful not to overstate JBE's apparent advantage here.  Reasons for caution:

1. He can improve his vote share from the primary round and still lose. 
2. Historical EV vs. ED dynamic and the very Republican-leaning college football fanbase
3. Rispone fits the profile of recent R overperformers as an outsider businessman
4. JBE may fit the profile of recent D underperformers in an "only won because of his opponent's scandals" kind of way.  On the other hand, he won by 12 against Vitter, a margin large enough that he could have been competitive against Generic R. 
5. Hood's loss next door

[Skill and Chance]

Really interesting that JBE appears to be the only Trump-era Dem who succeeded in getting Obama-level black turnout for a downballot contest. 

[Skill and Chance]

Demographic data for the runoff have posted

Turnout:
White 52.7
Black 50.2
Other 35.2

The gap between W/B turnout was 9.6 in the primary and 3.0 in the 2015 general

From the primary, the black vote increased by about 94,000, the white vote 56,000 and other by 9,000. 

The voting electorate was 65.5 white 30.8 black and 3.6 other

The early vote was 65.9 white 31.1 black and 3.0 other

Wow, that was a stronger black turnout as a % of the statewide vote than in 2012 (30.6%) or 2008 (29.5%)!