Four years from today, who will be.....?

[CumbrianLefty]

These comments just show that you are a moronic cultist yourself - merely a different kind.

Of course, your utterly risible username confirms that too

[CumbrianLefty]

And that comment about Swinson - genuine ROFLMAO.

She is a lightweight centre-right neoliberal.

The end.

[CumbrianLefty]

I don't think such a description of her is even particularly controversial.

She is what she is.

Like, even right leaning LibDems tend not to think a statue of Thatcher is a good idea.

[CumbrianLefty]

President of the United States: Joe Biden, with Kamala Harris as President-elect.

Chancellor of Germany: Heiko Maas

President of France: Marine Le Pen

Prime Minister of the United Kingdom: Boris Johnson

Prime Minister of Canada: Justin Trudeau

Prime Minister of Australia: No clue

Even if the Tories are still in power as 2025 arrives, its highly unlikely that Johnson will then be PM.

[CumbrianLefty]

I notice no one has questioned my pick of Marine Le Pen as the next French President yet...

If the Americans voted out Trump by a 5%-margin, the French will not elect LePen ...

There are certainly strong reasons for thinking it might not happen, but "look at America" maybe isn't one given that we are talking about *France* here

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm probably going to me just as wrong as I was in 2013, but I'll give it a go.

United States: Kamala Harris, who will be running against a DeSantis/Hawley ticket in 2024.
United Kingdom: Depends when the GE is, but probably BoJo.
France: I have no idea.
Canada: A Liberal not named Trudeau.

By law there has to be a general election by the end of 2024 in the UK. Whenever it is and whatever the result, I have made clear my view on the likelihood of the present PM still being there upthread.

[CumbrianLefty]

Not to worry, just shows that four years is an even "longer" period than usual right now.

[CumbrianLefty]

These things are a bit like the stock market. It's usually better not to go for whatever is trending at the present moment.

There is a fair amount of truth in this, "conventional wisdom" is wrong an awful lot of the time.

[CumbrianLefty]

*bump*

Well, no one posted predictions in this thread in 2018.  So we don’t know if anyone would have gotten Scholz or Albanese during that time.  However, we do have two predictions from September 2019 that predicted Albanese:

...president of the United States? Biden
...chancellor of Germany? AKK
...president of France? Macron
...prime minister of the UK? Swinson
...prime minister of Canada? Trudeau
...prime minister of Australia? Albanese

Look who that one had as the UK premier, though

[CumbrianLefty]

Well, I was badly wrong.

2026:

Australia: I'll say it's still Albanese
United Kingdom: Rishi Sunak
France:Emmanuel Macron (as the 2027 Election hasn't happened yet)
Canada: Still Justin Trudeau
United States: Kamala Harris

LOL, been in a coma this year have we?

[CumbrianLefty]

Those all look reasonably plausible right now.

As far as the UK in 2026 is concerned, if we assume there is a change of government then quite a big factor is how the Tories react to losing office. Quite possibly not that well, given current indications.