Edwards What-If

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Edwards is able to win in Iowa, forcing Obama out after New Hampshire.  He wins South Carolina, trading primaris with Hillary until March, when he takes the nomination.  At the Convention, he makes Kathleen Sebelius his running mate.  Everything goes as IRL on the GOP side; McCain eventually picks Mark Sanford as his running mate.

In October, polls show Edwards leading McCain 48-42 nationally, with 8% undecided, and 2% for another candidate.  Than, on October 8, news of Edwards's affair breaks; what happens from there?

[Lunar]

I imagine there would be a good chance he'd drop out.

I'm not sure what the party rules are in this scenario, but y'all should keep this in mind:  McCain's past affairs would certainly get some press coverage no matter what happens.  It'd be hard for McCain to be holier-than-thou or attack Edwards hard for this (even if he dropped out).  Depending on how it played in the media, McCain would have an outside chance of taking a serious hit in public perception since I don't think most people know about him cheating on his crippled wife with his current [much younger] one.  Sort of what Edwards did with his sick wife, y'know?  Except McCain was smart enough to choose a well-connected, wealthy, pretty one that he fell in love with.

[Lunar]

As an added note: There's no way that the replacement Democrat for Edwards would be so dumb as to not come out hitting McCain hard about his own past marital issues.  Edwards would be forced to do the same if he stayed in as a matter of survival.

God, how STUPID was this guy to a) Cheat on his sick wife and then b) Assume that no one will ever hear of it and run for president a year later.

[Mr. Morden]

I imagine there would be a good chance he'd drop out.

I'm not sure what the party rules are in this scenario.....

It would presumably be too late to get his name off the ballot, but remember, people are really only voting for electors anyway.  The Edwards electors could collectively decide that they would vote for someone else, and this would be communicated to the public....that "voting for Edwards" means that the Edwards electors would vote for the replacement guy.  Exactly how the electors would reach a consensus, I don't know.  It might be as simple as a few party bigwigs making a decision in a smoke filled room, and then telling the electors what to do.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I imagine there would be a good chance he'd drop out.

I'm not sure what the party rules are in this scenario.....

It would presumably be too late to get his name off the ballot, but remember, people are really only voting for electors anyway.  The Edwards electors could collectively decide that they would vote for someone else, and this would be communicated to the public....that "voting for Edwards" means that the Edwards electors would vote for the replacement guy.  Exactly how the electors would reach a consensus, I don't know.  It might be as simple as a few party bigwigs making a decision in a smoke filled room, and then telling the electors what to do.

In that case McCain would win a landslide. Yes we are voting for Electors but the people are voting indirectly for a person and they want to know before hand who that is. For all they new the party big wigs could pick Kucinich or Pelosi. Remember the "Punch Foley for Negron" Slogan in 2006. Even it didn't work.

[© tweed]

a more interesting scenario involves the story being broken at the same point in time as it has in IRL.  the convention likely would have to draft somebody.

[Mr. Morden]

I imagine there would be a good chance he'd drop out.

I'm not sure what the party rules are in this scenario.....

It would presumably be too late to get his name off the ballot, but remember, people are really only voting for electors anyway.  The Edwards electors could collectively decide that they would vote for someone else, and this would be communicated to the public....that "voting for Edwards" means that the Edwards electors would vote for the replacement guy.  Exactly how the electors would reach a consensus, I don't know.  It might be as simple as a few party bigwigs making a decision in a smoke filled room, and then telling the electors what to do.

In that case McCain would win a landslide. Yes we are voting for Electors but the people are voting indirectly for a person and they want to know before hand who that is. For all they new the party big wigs could pick Kucinich or Pelosi. Remember the "Punch Foley for Negron" Slogan in 2006. Even it didn't work.

Of course it would be announced before the election who the replacement for Edwards would be.  My point was that, because you're voting for electors, there's no legal problem with someone substituting in for the party nominee as long as the electors agree.  So if Edwards is nominated at the convention, but is then forced to drop out before the election, the Edwards electors would come to some consensus on who the replacement candidate is before the election, and announce who that person is.  Edwards's name would still be on the ballot, but it would be widely understood that pulling the lever for Edwards would mean a vote for whoever the replacement candidate is.