VA-Monmouth: dead heat

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Go Gillespie!

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I want to see a couple more polls, but other than Quinnipiac the race has been shown as a dead heat, and though Trump is Toxic, merely tying Gillespie to Trump will not work.  I rated it Tossup-Tilt D, keeping it there.


From the poll


10. Is The God Emperor of Mankind a major factor, minor factor, or not a factor in deciding how you will vote for governor?

26%     Major factor

14%     Minor factor

59%     Not a factor

  1%     (VOL) Don't know

I think this proves tying Ed to Trump won't do Northam that much good.

No, it doesn't. Consider this:

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So essentially Trump gives Northam a roughly five point bounce.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I want to see a couple more polls, but other than Quinnipiac the race has been shown as a dead heat, and though Trump is Toxic, merely tying Gillespie to Trump will not work.  I rated it Tossup-Tilt D, keeping it there.


From the poll


10. Is The God Emperor of Mankind a major factor, minor factor, or not a factor in deciding how you will vote for governor?

26%     Major factor

14%     Minor factor

59%     Not a factor

  1%     (VOL) Don't know

I think this proves tying Ed to Trump won't do Northam that much good.

No, it doesn't. Consider this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So essentially Trump gives Northam a roughly five point bounce.

Alright, well then is it all Rs in that 59% group?  Or independents who don't really think Trump matters?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I want to see a couple more polls, but other than Quinnipiac the race has been shown as a dead heat, and though Trump is Toxic, merely tying Gillespie to Trump will not work.  I rated it Tossup-Tilt D, keeping it there.


From the poll


10. Is The God Emperor of Mankind a major factor, minor factor, or not a factor in deciding how you will vote for governor?

26%     Major factor

14%     Minor factor

59%     Not a factor

  1%     (VOL) Don't know

I think this proves tying Ed to Trump won't do Northam that much good.

No, it doesn't. Consider this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So essentially Trump gives Northam a roughly five point bounce.

Alright, well then is it all Rs in that 59% group?  Or independents who don't really think Trump matters?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So that'd be 68% of undecideds saying Trump isn't, alright.

Gillespie's group is probably almost all former Stewart supporters.

If Dems were remotely competent, Trump's approval rating in the state/district should be a ceiling on the GOP share of the vote in any election held for the next 4 years unless the Dem candidate has a yuge scandal.  That's how it worked in the Obama years.

Er, not really. Obama's approval in Louisiana in 2014 was around 35%, but Mary Landrieu received 44% of the vote.