Morning Consult nat.: Biden 30 Sanders 21 Warren 15 Buttigieg 9 Harris 5 Yang 4

[Mr. Morden]

Morning Consult national poll, conducted Nov. 21-24:

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

Biden 30%
Sanders 21%
Warren 15%
Buttigieg 9%
Harris 5%
Yang 4%
Bloomberg 2%
Booker 2%
Gabbard 2%
Klobuchar 2%
Steyer 2%
Bennet 1%
Bullock 1%
Castro 1%
Delaney 1%
Williamson 1%
Patrick 0%

[Mr. Morden]

fav/unfav % among Dem. primary voters:
Sanders 75/19% for +56%
Biden 68/23% for +45%
Warren 63/19% for +44%
Buttigieg 49/14% for +35%
Harris 53/21% for +32%
Booker 48/16% for +32%
Yang 43/15% for +28%
Klobuchar 36/18% for +18%
Castro 35/18% for +17%
Steyer 28/17% for +11%
Bennet 19/13% for +6%
Bullock 17/13% for +4%
Delaney 17/15% for +2%
Bloomberg 31/30% for +1%
Patrick 15/14% for +1%
Williamson 17/22% for -5%
Gabbard 20/26% for -6%

So Patrick is pretty unknown…even more unknown than Steve Bullock.

Bloomberg is reasonably well known.  ~60% name recognition, so somewhere in between Buttigieg and Yang in terms of % with an opinion of them.  But he’s *much* less popular than they are.

[Shadows]

Early States -

Biden 26%
Bernie 23%
Warren 18%
Steyer 9%
Pete 8%
Yang 4%
Klobuchar 2% Harris 2% Bloomberg 2%

Bernie is likely leading in Iowa, NH, Nevada is his early state numbers are this good. This is his best poll since the start of the campaign.

[Cinemark]

Early States -

Biden 26%
Bernie 23%
Warren 18%
Steyer 9%
Pete 8%
Yang 4%
Klobuchar 2% Harris 2% Bloomberg 2%

Bernie is likely leading in Iowa, NH, Nevada is his early state numbers are this good. This is his best poll since the start of the campaign.

That Steyer number is suspicious.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It changed more than usual this week.

Biden -2
Sanders +1
Warren -2
Buttigieg +1
Harris 0
Yang +1

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is gonna walk away with nomination

[eric82oslo]

It changed more than usual this week.

Biden -2
Sanders +1
Warren -2
Buttigieg +1
Yang +1

Also:

Steyer +1
Bloomberg -1

[izixs]

I've already seen this cited as a sign that Sanders is now 'surging' due to the shift in the early states subsample. And I'm just here rolling my eyes going, do you folks know how to read a poll, like at all? The shift is the same as the margin of error. Yeah, there probably was movement. Maybe, but small? Big? Get more data before declaring the race over.

[bilaps]

Who said that the race is over?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I've already seen this cited as a sign that Sanders is now 'surging' due to the shift in the early states subsample. And I'm just here rolling my eyes going, do you folks know how to read a poll, like at all? The shift is the same as the margin of error. Yeah, there probably was movement. Maybe, but small? Big? Get more data before declaring the race over.

WHY BERNIE DO GOOD!?

[Eraserhead]

I've already seen this cited as a sign that Sanders is now 'surging' due to the shift in the early states subsample. And I'm just here rolling my eyes going, do you folks know how to read a poll, like at all? The shift is the same as the margin of error. Yeah, there probably was movement. Maybe, but small? Big? Get more data before declaring the race over.

Who is declaring the race over???

That said this is YUGE movement by Morning Consult standards.

[Beet]

Yikes. Bad poll for Warren. What she needs to do now is to stop the bleeding.

I much prefer their early states poll.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Warren is done, her millionaire tax, is seen as another tax hike

[Shadows]

I've already seen this cited as a sign that Sanders is now 'surging' due to the shift in the early states subsample. And I'm just here rolling my eyes going, do you folks know how to read a poll, like at all? The shift is the same as the margin of error. Yeah, there probably was movement. Maybe, but small? Big? Get more data before declaring the race over.

Who is declaring the race over???

That said this is YUGE movement by Morning Consult standards.

No1 is declaring the race is over. It is not MoE. Sanders is +5 in Early States, +5. That is more than the margin of error. There is a surge & since Biden/Sanders are at 26/23 & with Biden holding a huge lead in SC, Sanders is likely ahead in Iowa, NH or Nevada or thereabout.

Not a huge change for Biden in the national poll but he lost big in the early states.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I've already seen this cited as a sign that Sanders is now 'surging' due to the shift in the early states subsample. And I'm just here rolling my eyes going, do you folks know how to read a poll, like at all? The shift is the same as the margin of error. Yeah, there probably was movement. Maybe, but small? Big? Get more data before declaring the race over.

Who is declaring the race over???

That said this is YUGE movement by Morning Consult standards.

You just don't know how to read a poll, dummy!  Gaining 5 points in a week is MINUSCULE!  WEAK!  Nate Silver unskewed it and said Biden actually picked up 3.  The MOE tells us this.  Do you not know MOE?  I am smart.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sanders has the most loyal supporters and the largest hatedom and the second largest fandom of any candidate in the race. He's the most polarizing and has been stuck around 15-20% since the race began in earnest. I don't think he'll sink below or rise above of that range for a while, likely speaking.

[bilaps]

Sanders has the most loyal supporters and the largest hatedom and the second largest fandom of any candidate in the race. He's the most polarizing and has been stuck around 15-20% since the race began in earnest. I don't think he'll sink below or rise above of that range for a while, likely speaking.

Sanders has 75-19 favorables in this poll.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sanders has the most loyal supporters and the largest hatedom and the second largest fandom of any candidate in the race. He's the most polarizing and has been stuck around 15-20% since the race began in earnest. I don't think he'll sink below or rise above of that range for a while, likely speaking.

Sanders has 75-19 favorables in this poll.

how does that disprove my argument?

[bilaps]

Sanders has the most loyal supporters and the largest hatedom and the second largest fandom of any candidate in the race. He's the most polarizing and has been stuck around 15-20% since the race began in earnest. I don't think he'll sink below or rise above of that range for a while, likely speaking.

Pretty easily. You say he's the most polarizing.

Sanders has 75-19 favorables in this poll.

how does that disprove my argument?

Pretty easily. You say he's the most polarizing.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Sanders has the most loyal supporters and the largest hatedom and the second largest fandom of any candidate in the race. He's the most polarizing and has been stuck around 15-20% since the race began in earnest. I don't think he'll sink below or rise above of that range for a while, likely speaking.

Pretty easily. You say he's the most polarizing.

Sanders has 75-19 favorables in this poll.

how does that disprove my argument?

Pretty easily. You say he's the most polarizing.

Your logic doesn't follow. The intensity of feelings in regards to Sanders, for both lovers and haters, is higher than for any other candidate.

[President Johnson]

Looks like Warrenmentum has faded away. But she has still a decent chance in Iowa to regain momentum.

[izixs]

I've already seen this cited as a sign that Sanders is now 'surging' due to the shift in the early states subsample. And I'm just here rolling my eyes going, do you folks know how to read a poll, like at all? The shift is the same as the margin of error. Yeah, there probably was movement. Maybe, but small? Big? Get more data before declaring the race over.

Who is declaring the race over???

That said this is YUGE movement by Morning Consult standards.

Those declaring it over are the usual folks on my twitter feed whom are all in for Sanders.