Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[Holmes]

I believe the NDP will sit comfortably around 24% - 26% until election day... good performance in the debate, yes, but not enough people are jumping from the Liberals to NDP, now that McGuinty has a chance. Or maybe we'll all be surprised. Surprises are always good for New Democrats.

[Holmes]

Thunder Bay - Atikokan


Thunder Bay - Superior North


http://netnewsledger.com/2011/09/30/forum-research-poll-shows-ndp-surge-in-thunder-bay-atikokan/

Sudbury

NDP - 38%
Lib - 37%
PC - 19%
Green - 4%

http://www.northernlife.ca/news/localNews/2011/09/30-OFL-polls-liberals-ndp.aspx


If these seats fall to the NDP, Liberals will become the third party in Northern Ontario in the next election.

[Holmes]

Oh, that's great. Honestly, all Canadian polls are okay. I think it's Compas that's really bias towards Consevatives though, and I believe that Nanos was the most accurate in the federal, fwiw. Harris-Decima was good too. Speaking of Nanos,

Lib - 37.7% (-0.4%)
PC - 34.4% (-0.3%)
NDP - 25.5% (+1.2%)
Green - 2.0% (-0.7%)

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/POLONT-F11-T504.pdf

Hardly any change, though. I'd like to see more polling to see if Leger or Nanos is correct.

[Holmes]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zfoEtvMwGKw
http://www.citytv.com/toronto/citynews/topic/cityvote_ontario_2011/article/157134--cityvote-2011-riding-profile-bramalea-gore-malton

Could a victory for the NDP here be a blueprint for future wins in the region? Great local candidate, a grassroots campaign... I'll actually be devastated if Singh doesn't pull through again.

(favoruite line from the second video - 7% unemployment, better than rest of Ontario and rest of Canada!)

[Holmes]

Speaking of Ottawa Centre, if the 308 guy of all people is predicting an NDP win, I wouldn't be too nervous.

I enjoy how he thinks Gilles will get 65% of the vote. But it'll be 50NDP - 30PC - 15Lib. Maybe +/- 5% for the PC and Liberal numbers.

[Holmes]

New Nanos. I believe they're gonna be releasing one every night until Thursday.

Lib - 36.5% (-1.5)
PC - 34.0% (-1.3)
NDP - 26.8% (+2.2)
Green - 1.9% (+0.1)

Movin' on up.

[Holmes]

I went to school in a Catholic school board, so...

[Holmes]

Just voted for Gilles Bisson. Hoping for a win in Ottawa-Center, Hatman!

[Holmes]

New Forum poll has NDP ahead in Sudbury and Bramalea-Gore-Malton. But behind in both Windsor districts. Of course, they're riding polls, but the results are better than Forum's last riding polls.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/provincialelection/article/1064105--poll-reinforces-minority-prediction

[Holmes]

They didn't do Ottawa Centre!!!???

For f's sake!

If swing voters see that the NDP is ahead, they'll be less likely to vote Liberal?

[Holmes]

I have a feeling Conservatives will over perform in the polls and Liberals will under perform. Remember that Rae won a comfortable majority with only 37% of the vote, with the runners up at 32%. So if the polls are correct we might not be looking at a minority, but maybe a majority, depending on where the numbers are coming from.

[Holmes]

There will be no victory.

Dalton - I hate public transit and cities - McGunity will win another majority.

A Liberal minority would be a victory. NDP would keep Liberals in check for 2 years, until the next election. Especially if the NDP become the opposition. You never know - how low can Hudak go?

[Holmes]

But where are the numbers coming from? That's more important than the actual provincewide numbers. If, for example, the Liberals are "surging" due to people in Toronto and the GTA switching from PC to Liberal, with competition everywhere else in the province, Liberals might not get their majority. Or they might. Results might be wonky.

[Holmes]

Most polls (Nanos, Ipsos, Forum, Ekos) show Liberals quite ahead, with PCs second, NDP third. So I guess I'll just post the interesting outlier.

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/44072/tories-edging-liberals-but-ontario-race-could-turn-in-final-hours/

PC - 36%
Lib - 33%
NDP - 26%

[Holmes]

http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/44072/tories-edging-liberals-but-ontario-race-could-turn-in-final-hours/

PC - 36%
Lib - 33%
NDP - 26%

Angus-Reid now saying 37% Lib, 33% PC, 26% NDP. Weird how they'd fit in one more one-day poll before the election, but maybe they didn't wanna be the odd ones out.

[Holmes]

Alright, here are the ridings I expect the NDP to win. Bolded will be squeakers, could go either way.

Timmins-James Bay
Timiskaming-Cochrane
Nickel Belt
Algoma-Manitoulin
Sudbury
Thunder Bay-Atikokan
Thunder Bay-Superior North
Kenora-Rainy River
London-Fanshawe
Welland
Hamilton Centre
Hamilton Mountain
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
Toronto-Danforth
Trinity-Spadina
Beaches-East York
Davenport
Parkdale-High Park
York South-Weston
Windsor West
Ottawa Centre
Bramalea-Gore-Malton

And they'll probably be close in these, but not close enough.

Scarborough Southwest
Oshawa
Windsor-Tecumseh
Sarnia-Lambton
Essex

Popular vote will be 26% +/- .5%

[Holmes]

Angus-Reid says NDP at 78% in Northern Ontario.

http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/2011.10.05_Ontario_Final.pdf

l o l.

[Holmes]

Exit polls would be pretty useless for Canadian elections, and all over the place. It would be sort of like exit polling for House elections.

[Holmes]

Teddy, you have the Soo between Liberal/NDP, yet Sudbury as Liberal?

[Holmes]

Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry, Toronto Centre, Trinity-Spadina and Kenora-Rainy River polls will stay open an extra 30 minutes. Boo! Although, Kenora-Rainy River is really the only interesting one.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/10/06/results-delayed-in-four-ridings-as-poll-hours-extended/

[Holmes]

If NDP loses in Trinity-Spadina and York-South Weston then blah forever. Especially if those give the Liberals a majority.

[Holmes]

Lots of fails for the NDP tonight, but there are some bright spots. Perhaps Ford getting elected was the worst thing to happen for the NDP for tonight.

[Holmes]

Of course. Like I said, there are bright spots. Looking at the ridings that the NDP won in May or came close, and beforehand never even had a shot (Scarborough-RR, Scarborough SW, B-G-M, to name a few), the NDP has come really close (and is leading in B-G-M). These ridings might have gone NDP if the Liberals hadn't surged in the past week.

And at the same time, some solid federal NDP seats are Liberal holds, too. So it's mixed.


Trinity-Spadina moving towards NDP a bit. And Oshawa must be the biggest fools' gold for the NDP, ever.

[Holmes]

Surprised to see both Thunder Bay ridings stay Liberal. Going against the grain in Northern Ontario.

Will Liberals get >10% in Timmins-James Bay? That brand is dead in my home riding.

[Holmes]

Bramalea-Gore-Malton is looking good for NDP. Trinity-Spadina, Sudbrury and York South-Weston are real nail bitters.