GOP Gubernatorial Victory in California: Is it possible?

[E-Dawg]

This is my fictional map for a modern Republican statewide victory in California. This would pit a charismatic and very popular moderate Republican from the Central Valley vs an unpopular Democrat from the SF Bay Area. Bay Area is a Democratic landslide (but weaker than usual), Central Valley + inland Northern Calfornia is a Republican landslide, and Southern California is a narrow Republican win.

Although this would obviously be extremely unlikely, I feel that this could happen with the type of candidates I described above. Conditions would include a favorable Republican national environment and an unpopular Democratic governor who is especially toxic in the Central Valley and inland areas. The Republican candidate would have to be especially well suited to Hispanics and suburban areas.

Judging by my map, how much of a Republican victory would this represent? I'm not sure if this would be a close GOP victory or a comfortable one. It probably could be either depending on the more specific margins.

Hypothetical fitting my description could be Gavin Newsom (D) vs. David Valadao (R) in a 2022 Biden  midterm in which Newsom is extremely unpopular for some reason, David Valadao regained his house seat in 2020, and the national environment is great for Republicans.

NOTE: This topic was previously posted in the wrong category, apologies for that error.

[KaiserDave]

Work maps, but the scenario doesn't

[E-Dawg]

Work maps, but the scenario doesn't

Why? Again, the scenario is not something I expect to happen in any way, it was just the first thing I thought of that fit my criteria.

[KaiserDave]

Work maps, but the scenario doesn't

Why? Again, the scenario is not something I expect to happen in any way, it was just the first thing I thought of that fit my criteria.

Oh well. In that case if you don't expect it.

I just don't expect the criteria you set out to be enough for a GOP win.

But the map is solid.

[E-Dawg]

Work maps, but the scenario doesn't

Why? Again, the scenario is not something I expect to happen in any way, it was just the first thing I thought of that fit my criteria.

Oh well. In that case if you don't expect it.

I just don't expect the criteria you set out to be enough for a GOP win.

But the map is solid.

Yeah, the Republican would have to run a near perfect campaign and the Democrat would need a lot of baggage for this type of win to happen. What margin of victory do you think this map would most likely represent? ,

[Canis]

A republican win a Biden midterm is possible despite what people have been saying Newsom would seriously have to do a terrible job for it to happen but it is like a scenario that could occur obviously the most realistic path for republicans is forcing a lockout with 2 republicans in the general

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

A republican win a Biden midterm is possible despite what people have been saying Newsom would seriously have to do a terrible job for it to happen but it is like a scenario that could occur obviously the most realistic path for republicans is forcing a lockout with 2 republicans in the general

It really, really is not, no matter how terribly Biden/Newsom are viewed by the time '22 roles in. Hyper partisanship is not going away even when Trump does.

[xavier110]

It is not

[RRusso1982]

Why is it not possible for a Republican to be elected Governor of California.  Massachusetts has a Republican Governor.  Maryland has a Republican Governor.  Vermont has a Republican Governor.

[E-Dawg]

Why is it not possible for a Republican to be elected Governor of California.  Massachusetts has a Republican Governor.  Maryland has a Republican Governor.  Vermont has a Republican Governor.

Exactly, under the correct circumstances, hyper-partisanship can break, as it did for Massachusetts, Maryland, and Vermont. Those 3 states are just as Democratic as California and elected Republican governers easily twice.

[Oryxslayer]

Why is it not possible for a Republican to be elected Governor of California.  Massachusetts has a Republican Governor.  Maryland has a Republican Governor.  Vermont has a Republican Governor.

There's two big problems that emerge in larger states like CA, which you also see in NY, TX, and FL. The larger the constituency, the more moving parts there are to juggle in order to reach 50% as the challenging party. The second issue is that media markets and campaigns get pricey. To run against the grain you need money, which is fine and good if you just have to put ads up in Boston or Topeka. The larger the state, the more media markets, and more likely one will be expensive like LA or NY. Its hard to justify to the higher-ups/donors that you deserve the money needed to flip a opposition stronghold of this size, when there are lower-hanging fruit.

Then there are a host of issues unique to California such as: the top-two primary system facilitating a second quality Dem/Indie-Dem to run against a scandal-plagued incumbent, the GOP brand being so toxic outside of the rural backcountry that competitive candidates now run on ballot initiatives/indie lines, and a political bench that is so non-existent and tarnished by loss that they are forced to co-opt the message coming out of Washington (tea party, then obstruction, then Trump) and can't build any unique CA-specific brand.

I suggest you do some research into what has been said about Poizner's 2018 campaign on this board. Poizner was a trial balloon that had everything in his corner, yet he still lost because there were too many safe D votes.

[UncleSam]

I mean the map is a roadmap for a close R victory. The circumstances seem unlikely but you never know.

[Alcibiades]

Why is it not possible for a Republican to be elected Governor of California.  Massachusetts has a Republican Governor.  Maryland has a Republican Governor.  Vermont has a Republican Governor.

There's two big problems that emerge in larger states like CA, which you also see in NY, TX, and FL. The larger the constituency, the more moving parts there are to juggle in order to reach 50% as the challenging party. The second issue is that media markets and campaigns get pricey. To run against the grain you need money, which is fine and good if you just have to put ads up in Boston or Topeka. The larger the state, the more media markets, and more likely one will be expensive like LA or NY. Its hard to justify to the higher-ups/donors that you deserve the money needed to flip a opposition stronghold of this size, when there are lower-hanging fruit.

Then there are a host of issues unique to California such as: the top-two primary system facilitating a second quality Dem/Indie-Dem to run against a scandal-plagued incumbent, the GOP brand being so toxic outside of the rural backcountry that competitive candidates now run on ballot initiatives/indie lines, and a political bench that is so non-existent and tarnished by loss that they are forced to co-opt the message coming out of Washington (tea party, then obstruction, then Trump) and can't build any unique CA-specific brand.

I suggest you do some research into what has been said about Poizner's 2018 campaign on this board. Poizner was a trial balloon that had everything in his corner, yet he still lost because there were too many safe D votes.

Great analysis. The other thing I would add as to why it is much easier for the Republicans to win governorships in New England than California is in the former, there isn’t much of a conservative base the Republican candidate needs to placate, whereas the core of the CA GOP is still composed of pretty solid conservatives; New England Republicans having long been some of the most moderate in the nation, whereas suburban SoCal in particular was until relatively recently pretty hardcore movement conservative (Orange County was known as ‘nut country’).

This prevents the GOP from nominating electable moderate candidates in CA as they have to satisfy a primary electorate which is far to the right of the state and has been left behind by its leftwards shift, and the bench, to the extent it exists, is largely composed of people representing conservative districts. This is the same problem the GOP suffers from in Virginia, and I expect will also suffer from in the near future in Texas and Georgia. In all of these states, the fact that there was a credible conservative GOP much more recently than in MA or VT actually works against the party today.

[E-Dawg]

Why is it not possible for a Republican to be elected Governor of California.  Massachusetts has a Republican Governor.  Maryland has a Republican Governor.  Vermont has a Republican Governor.

There's two big problems that emerge in larger states like CA, which you also see in NY, TX, and FL. The larger the constituency, the more moving parts there are to juggle in order to reach 50% as the challenging party. The second issue is that media markets and campaigns get pricey. To run against the grain you need money, which is fine and good if you just have to put ads up in Boston or Topeka. The larger the state, the more media markets, and more likely one will be expensive like LA or NY. Its hard to justify to the higher-ups/donors that you deserve the money needed to flip a opposition stronghold of this size, when there are lower-hanging fruit.

Then there are a host of issues unique to California such as: the top-two primary system facilitating a second quality Dem/Indie-Dem to run against a scandal-plagued incumbent, the GOP brand being so toxic outside of the rural backcountry that competitive candidates now run on ballot initiatives/indie lines, and a political bench that is so non-existent and tarnished by loss that they are forced to co-opt the message coming out of Washington (tea party, then obstruction, then Trump) and can't build any unique CA-specific brand.

I suggest you do some research into what has been said about Poizner's 2018 campaign on this board. Poizner was a trial balloon that had everything in his corner, yet he still lost because there were too many safe D votes.

Great analysis. The other thing I would add as to why it is much easier for the Republicans to win governorships in New England than California is in the former, there isn’t much of a conservative base the Republican candidate needs to placate, whereas the core of the CA GOP is still composed of pretty solid conservatives; New England Republicans having long been some of the most moderate in the nation, whereas suburban SoCal in particular was until relatively recently pretty hardcore movement conservative (Orange County was known as ‘nut country’).

This prevents the GOP from nominating electable moderate candidates in CA as they have to satisfy a primary electorate which is far to the right of the state and has been left behind by its leftwards shift, and the bench, to the extent it exists, is largely composed of people representing conservative districts. This is the same problem the GOP suffers from in Virginia, and I expect will also suffer from in the near future in Texas and Georgia. In all of these states, the fact that there was a credible conservative GOP much more recently than in MA or VT actually works against the party today.

Oryzslayer and Acliblades gave great points, I'll concede that electing a Republican governor in California would be harder than in Mass, Vermont, or Maryland. However, due to California's jungle primary, a GOP candidate does not necessarily need to placate conservatives to make to the general. A popular moderate Republican could instead make it through the primary on a coalition of moderate Republicans, independents, moderate Democrats dissatisfied with the dem candidate, and conservatives who feel that the candidate provides the best chance for a GOP victory.

[Sestak]

I think some people are overstating how 'impossible' it is for the GOP to win such a race. In 2022 it's unlikely, sure, because apolitical dem-leaners don't really seem to have any specific dislike of Newsom and he's probably most likely to pull Republican challengers who spout national GOP talking points about CA etc. In the longer term, it is of course possible - unlike Senate races, every party has a chance to win nearly every governorship at least once sometime in the next decade.

[Alcibiades]

I think some people are overstating how 'impossible' it is for the GOP to win such a race. In 2022 it's unlikely, sure, because apolitical dem-leaners don't really seem to have any specific dislike of Newsom and he's probably most likely to pull Republican challengers who spout national GOP talking points about CA etc. In the longer term, it is of course possible - unlike Senate races, every party has a chance to win nearly every governorship at least once sometime in the next decade.

Not impossible, but a hell of a lot harder than most other smaller, Northeastern solid Dem states.

[tpfkaw]

If it's the case that, as certain polls show, Hispanics are shifting towards the GOP, maybe. Otherwise no.

[RRusso1982]

Just about anything is possible under the right set of circumstances.  Didn't Arnold Schwarzenegger win in California by 17 points in 2006, a big Democratic year?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Just about anything is possible under the right set of circumstances.  Didn't Arnold Schwarzenegger win in California by 17 points in 2006, a big Democratic year?

A Democrat also swept every county in Wyoming and Tennessee that year, in addition to winning Oklahoma 66-33.

Do you think that is possible now? If so, please pass whatever you are smoking

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Just about anything is possible under the right set of circumstances.  Didn't Arnold Schwarzenegger win in California by 17 points in 2006, a big Democratic year?

It was also Arnold, there's no way he would've been voted out. This is Cali man, Hollywood's got power.

Also, aren’t the demographics in CA even worse for Republicans than they were in 2006? I mean just two years prior, Bush only lost the state by 10.

[DrScholl]

To win statewide Republicans would need to do it by a plurality and the top two eliminated that. The only way they could pull it off is if they could lock Democrats out of the top two in an open race.

[SevenEleven]

If it's the case that, as certain polls show, Hispanics are shifting towards the GOP, maybe. Otherwise no.

I consider those polls to be junk, but even then, it's not possible. Say Democrats fall from 68% of Hispanics to around 63%, but the Hispanic vote itself increases by 2% of the share. There's no ground to gain because you still have a growing demographic heavily tilted toward the other party. And I think it goes without being said that the Hispanics that would swing GOP are not the Hispanics that live in California.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, Schwarzenegger was the only R to get elected, due to him being a Kennedy like Cuomo had children with Kerry Kennedy. Other than that, Cali is a 1 party state

[E-Dawg]

Hypothetical fitting my description could be Gavin Newsom (D) vs. David Valadao (R) in a 2022 Biden  midterm in which Newsom is extremely unpopular for some reason, David Valadao regained his house seat in 2020, and the national environment is great for Republicans.

Hmm, so 2 out of 4 items in my sincerio are already confirmed to be the case... Maybe this map will happen...





















(Yeah I know its not going to lol)

[EastwoodS]

If it's the case that, as certain polls show, Hispanics are shifting towards the GOP, maybe. Otherwise no.

I consider those polls to be junk, but even then, it's not possible. Say Democrats fall from 68% of Hispanics to around 63%, but the Hispanic vote itself increases by 2% of the share. There's no ground to gain because you still have a growing demographic heavily tilted toward the other party. And I think it goes without being said that the Hispanics that would swing GOP are not the Hispanics that live in California.

There’s no reason why Republicans can’t sweep the Hispanic vote quickly IMO