2012 NDP leadership convention

[RogueBeaver]

Why do you think that? The numbers will go down post-convention like all parties' always have. If we win another majority the NDP won't be stealing any SK seats from us.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Per 1,000 residents, the membership numbers come out to:

AB 2.8
BC 8.8
MB 10.0
NB 1.3
NL 2.0
NS 4.2
ON 2.9
PE 1.9
QC 1.6
SK 10.9
territories 8.6

[RogueBeaver]

Race turns testy.

http://www.torontosun.com/2012/02/21/ndp-race-turns-testy-ahead-of-march-24-vote

Numbers game favours Mulcair.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/02/21/john-ivison-ndp-numbers-game-likely-to-work-in-thomas-mulcairs-favour/

[Хahar 🤔]

Why do you think that? The numbers will go down post-convention like all parties' always have. If we win another majority the NDP won't be stealing any SK seats from us.

Polls have been good for the NDP in the West, and boundary changes ought to produce a map that's better for the NDP (there couldn't possibly be a worse map for the NDP than this one). Most importantly, the next election will come after many years of right-wing rule in Ottawa and Regina. Fatigued voters won't be going to the Liberals.

[RogueBeaver]

Many years? Social democrats have ruled SK for almost the entire postwar era with brief exceptions for Thatcher, Devine and now Wall. Two terms is hardly "many years" in that context. Nonetheless, I agree with you that if we lose seats there, it'll be to the Dippers. Ralph Goodale won Wascana on his own popularity (like most of his fellow Grits), when he retires that seat will be gone for the Grits.

[MaxQue]

Still, a normal map would draw a Regina riding and a Saskatoon one, which would lean to the NDP.

[RogueBeaver]

More to the point, SK isn't where they need to gain. NDP gained 6 English Canadian seats last year. They lose Quebec, they lose OO- and right now it's a 3-way tie. Bob Rae has been personally popular here for 2 decades and if Harper makes a nationalist appeal he could regain some ground here as well.

[Holmes]

If forced to choose between Nash and Mulcair, where would BC go?

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Mulcair%2Bleadership%2Bfront%2Brunner%2Bmembers%2Bhold%2Bcards/6182285/story.html

Stopped at the first sentence. Mulcair isn't "mainly about Quebec" and doesn't promote himself that way. He does say he'd be best at holding Quebec. And that's true.

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No.

I'm impressed by Saskatchewan. The NDP ought to gain a number of seats there.

"Ought to", yes. But...

[RogueBeaver]

I agree with you (ROC press again proving their ignorance, in either sense of the word, about him), but how would BC vote?

[lilTommy]

Yukon numbers make some sense, they just had a territorial election where the NDP did very well. Plus they have been the government of the Yukon a number of times so i think that helps; where as in NB the party seems to be in a funk. Any ideas?

BC; well the prov. wing the BCNDP is unique in that they are a mix of left progressive liberals and true NDPers, so that might help Mulcair. Cullen wil have some home advantage so i suspect BC will be his best province; that i think will cut into Mulcairs vote as they are both playing in that "change" pool. Nash and Topp will fight it out amongst the traditional Social Democrats.
Mulcair has 10 endorsers from BC (MPs, former MPs, MLAs, Former MLAs and prominents)
Topp has 23 (most of them MLAs, but 5 MPs)
Cullen has 8
Nash has only 4

Topp i'm no fan of but he seems to have a good team out there, i suspect he will do well... he might have SK locked up too but hes seen as trailing everyone else and hasn't performed well at all in the debates. Hes says the right things to win over Social democrats but Nash seems to have that attraction to her that Topp dosen't.

ON is going to be a battle between Dewar, Nash Topp and Mulcair. I think Mulcair will come in second to Nash.

[lilTommy]

Still, a normal map would draw a Regina riding and a Saskatoon one, which would lean to the NDP.

Its almost too early to say who will pick up seats where until we see the new maps... ON, BC & AB (ok and PQ) will all have new ridings; SK will hopefully be totally redrawn into urban/rural ridings... and all other provinces will have to be re-drawn based on intern population shifts.

The boundary commissioners (is that their names?) were announced recently so the process is on!

[DL]

Yukon numbers make some sense, they just had a territorial election where the NDP did very well. Plus they have been the government of the Yukon a number of times so i think that helps; where as in NB the party seems to be in a funk. Any ideas?

Keep in mind that for the territorial membership numbers not only does the NDP have a membership base in Yukon where they are the official opposition, but the MP for Western Arctic in the NWT is Dennis Bevington of the NDP and I suspect that he has a large riding association.

AS for NB, they are actually doing quite well provincially these days with recent polls putting the NDP in the mid-20s after having had just 11% in the 2010 election. But they don't have any MLAs there so that removes a locus around which to organize and I understand that Yvan Godin has never bothered much with signing up any members in his federal riding.

[MaxQue]

Still, a normal map would draw a Regina riding and a Saskatoon one, which would lean to the NDP.

Its almost too early to say who will pick up seats where until we see the new maps... ON, BC & AB (ok and PQ) will all have new ridings; SK will hopefully be totally redrawn into urban/rural ridings... and all other provinces will have to be re-drawn based on intern population shifts.

The boundary commissioners (is that their names?) were announced recently so the process is on!

They have 10 months from now to draw a proposal, do auditions and write a report for parlimentarian hearings.

[MaxQue]

One of the board members of Saskatchewan sat on that board for 1986 redistricting.
Does cities were split, then?

[lilTommy]

Hmm looks like it was before then, in 1984 they had mixed ridings too... but i see what your getting at, ridings like Saskatoon East were almost held to just the city. back then it was the city and close suburbs.

http://atlas.nrcan.gc.ca/site/english/maps/archives/5thedition/peopleandsociety/politicalgeography/mcr4110

but then it was two ridings splitting both Regina and Saskatoon in two mixed ridings. With the population increase both cities can sustain one or two fully urban seats

[RogueBeaver]

Enthusiasm gap is the problem, not membership.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/343343/chefferie-du-npd-a-peine-12-000-membres-au-quebec

CAW endorses Nash.

http://blogs.canada.com/2012/02/22/ndp-leadership-peggy-nash-gets-a-big-union-boost-as-labour-support-becomes-theme-of-the-day/

[LastVoter]

Do Conservatives get to gerrymander the ridings like the winning party does in US? Is gerrymandering even reasonably possible in Canada because there are two opposition parties? Seems to me like all strategic voting failed last election because of the rise of NDP.

[MaxQue]

Do Conservatives get to gerrymander the ridings like the winning party does in US? Is gerrymandering even reasonably possible in Canada because there are two opposition parties? Seems to me like all strategic voting failed last election because of the rise of NDP.

No. Redistricting is done by commissions, one in each province.
Each has three members. One chosen by the Chief Justice of each province and two chosen by the Speaker of the House of Commons.

The Speaker is more or less non-partisan, and the list of his appointments seems non-partisan too.

Process:
They must do proposals (committee map), hold audiences around their province, write a report, submit it to the House (report map). There, a special House Committee met and each MP can raise objections to the map and write a report to each commission. Each commission has to answer them in another report and do corrections to the report map if they feel than some objections were right (definitive map).

[lilTommy]

I much prefer the system we have in place to the US system for OBVIOUS reasons.... But parties can rally around certain proposed re-draws (as we have been mentioning above about the NDP pushing for urban/rural ridings) But its pretty impartial.

I think is australia the parties can actually advocate for killing/completely re-drawing the each others strongholds?

... strategic voting always fails...

The CAW supporting Nash was just a matter of time, she was the former president after all. CEP supporting Topp again i don't see it; or get it at all. Hes the least attractive candidate.

[Hatman 🍁]

MPs do have a lot of say when it comes to their ridings. Minna and Mills prevented an east west divide that the boundary proposal had for their ridings. However, the commission normally rejects the MPs.

[lilTommy]

WOw, todays seems to be a big day for endorsements!

Peggy Nash got some big municipal endorsements from ON and BC, can we see the targetting yet?:
Adam Vaughan, Toronto City Councillor for Ward 20
Maria Augimeri, Toronto City Councillor for Ward 9
Janet Davis, Toronto City Councillor for Ward 31
Ron Jones, Windsor City Councillor for Ward 2
Carolyn Davies, Amherstburg City Councillor
Ben Isitt, Victoria City Councillor
Michelle Kirby, Oak Bay City Councillor
Diane McNally, Greater Victoria School Board Trustee
Constance Barnes, Vancouver Park Board
John Lutton, former Victoria City Councillor
Carol Pickup, former Saanich City Councillor

Not to be outdone, Mulcair also got some big BC(at times ish) support from oh look where BC!:
Joyce Scotton, former Campaign Manager for Tommy Douglas,
Gary Lauk, former cabinet minister in Dave Barrett’s NDP government
Tim Stevenson, former cabinet minister and four-term Vancouver City Councillor,
Jessie Uppal, director at the BC Federation of Labour;
Geoff Meggs, two-term Vancouver City Councillor;
Kerry Jang, two-term Vancouver City Councillor; and
Tish Lake, former NDP candidate from Kelowna and a Vice-president of the BC NDP.

[RogueBeaver]

You guys are ahead again in Quebec (per CROP) at 31% to 24% for the BQ, 22% for us and 20% for the Grits. That Place calls it as 41 Dippers, 13 Grits, 12 Tories and 9 BQ- dunno what your models say.

http://www.cyberpresse.ca/actualites/quebec-canada/politique-canadienne/201202/24/01-4499275-le-npd-reste-en-avance-au-quebec.php

[adma]

WOw, todays seems to be a big day for endorsements!

Peggy Nash got some big municipal endorsements from ON and BC, can we see the targetting yet?:
Adam Vaughan, Toronto City Councillor for Ward 20

Interesting.  He's usually thought of in terms of his Liberal family lineage...

[DL]

What family lineage? Adam Vaughan's father Colin was a city councillor in the 70s but was a non-partisan progressive and then became a news reporter...I don't think he was ever a Liberal.

[RogueBeaver]

Western debate today.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/02/26/pol-ndp-leadership-winnipeg-debate.html