Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

Zelensky Working From Home

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C6WQHr_SYqr/

Lol get it it’s because he’s asking for aid to help his country fight off a genocidal invasion hahahaha so funny. Also you made this joke already in the USGD aid thread you lazy loser troll

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-02/russians-who-fled-war-return-in-boost-for-putin-s-war-economy

"Russians Who Fled Abroad Return in Boost for Putin’s War Economy"

Based on client data at one relocation firm, Finion in Moscow, an estimated 40%-45% of those who left in 2022 have returned to Russia, said the company’s head, Vyacheslav Kartamyshev.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

The US has accused Russia of deploying chemical weapons as a "method of warfare" in Ukraine, in violation of international laws banning their use.

State department officials said Russia used the choking agent chloropicrin to win "battlefield gains" over Ukraine.

The allegations, which US officials said were not an "isolated" incident, would contravene the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), which Russia signed.

BBC via MSN

[Open Source Intelligence]

Is Ukraine is trying to create its own version of Karine Jean-Pierre?  The chances of someone from Ukraine looking like this person are nearly zero.

https://twitter.com/MFA_Ukraine/status/1785558101908742526

They spent money in the middle of a war on this?

[Open Source Intelligence]

Rob Lee's Twitter. This same lesson should be learned from the Houthis' actions in the Red Sea. So there's your challenge to NATO's defense industry: design something that works, but high volume and cheap. Post-end of Cold War, that's not the modus operandi.

(ISR UAV = Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance Unmanned Aerial Vehicle)

Not all lessons from Ukraine will apply to NATO militaries, but this is one that will. Russian Orlan ISR UAVs are not very sophisticated but they are cheap and easy to produce. That means Russia produces them in large numbers and they are expendable. But many of the current countermeasures are more expensive and scarcer. So Ukraine generally can't launch SHORAD or MANPADS to shoot them down, giving Russia persistent ISR coverage behind Ukrainian lines. MANPADS also are not optimized for defeating them. Developing cost-effective countermeasures should be a priority.

[Storr]

Jockeying for position in potential future (and later ongoing) negotiations is what happened in Korea for the last two and a half years of the war:

"General Skibitsky says he does not see a way for Ukraine to win the war on the battlefield alone. Even if it were able to push Russian forces back to the borders—an increasingly distant prospect—it wouldn’t end the war. Such wars can only end with treaties, he says. Right now, both sides are jockeying for the 'the most favourable position' ahead of potential talks. But meaningful negotiations can begin only in the second half of 2025 at the earliest, he guesses. By then, Russia will be facing serious "headwinds". Russian military production capacity has expanded but will reach a plateau by early 2026, he reckons, due to shortages in material and engineers. Both sides could eventually run out of weapons. But if nothing changes in other respects, Ukraine will run out first."

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1786130331868819524

[Hindsight was 2020]

Jockeying for position in potential future (and later ongoing) negotiations is what happened in Korea for the last two and a half years of the war:

"General Skibitsky says he does not see a way for Ukraine to win the war on the battlefield alone. Even if it were able to push Russian forces back to the borders—an increasingly distant prospect—it wouldn’t end the war. Such wars can only end with treaties, he says. Right now, both sides are jockeying for the 'the most favourable position' ahead of potential talks. But meaningful negotiations can begin only in the second half of 2025 at the earliest, he guesses. By then, Russia will be facing serious "headwinds". Russian military production capacity has increased but will plateau by early 2026, he reckons, due to shortages in material and engineers. Both sides could eventually run out of weapons. Butif nothing changes in other respects, Ukraine will run out first."

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1786130331868819524

As he notes later in the thread the EU increasing productivity and aid to Ukraine is a key aspects as keeping Ukraine from running out first before Russia does changes a lot

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ukraine should be expecting a healthy supply of Atacms throughout the year now
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1786146733719765338
https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2024/05/production-surge-eases-pentagon-worries-about-sending-long-range-missiles-to-ukraine-00155846

[Logical]

No posts about Gazprom woes from our resident capitali$t? Curious
https://twitter.com/AgatheDemarais/status/1786063323743596988?t=C8VpXZA80PswEOIp...

[jaichind]

https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/05/02/ukraine-is-on-the-brink-says-a-senior-general

"Ukraine is on the brink, says a senior general"



Wait, they already got the $61 billion so what is the point of this article?  It seems this is to set up the next push for the next batch of money to be sent to Ukraine.

[Open Source Intelligence]

Apparently a New York is under threat.

[Open Source Intelligence]

https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/05/02/ukraine-is-on-the-brink-says-a-senior-general

"Ukraine is on the brink, says a senior general"



Wait, they already got the $61 billion so what is the point of this article?  It seems this is to set up the next push for the next batch of money to be sent to Ukraine.

Money and equipment aren't going to fix personnel shortages. And per Frontelligence that mobilization law hasn't even become effective yet, it won't until middle of this month. Then they're going to get all these conscripts, they won't be thrown into the front lines right away, they have to be trained first. We're talking October at earliest probably for them to start deploying additional infantry at scale.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Apparently a New York is under threat.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York,_Ukraine
Today I learned...

[jaichind]

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-fortifications-8a72981dfdb755de6f8011b13f4d062e

"No safety in retreat: Ukrainian soldiers say rear defensive lines barely exist amid Russian advance"

Facing an outcry after Avdiivka’s fall, Ukraine is rushing to build concrete-fortified trenches, foxholes, firing positions and other barricades on the front lines. But relentless Russian shelling, lack of equipment and crippling bureaucracy plague construction across the vast 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front, even as a new Russian offensive looms, according to a dozen Ukrainian soldiers, government officials and construction company directors interviewed by The Associated Press.

[UWS]

Looks like the average number of killed Russian troops every day increased to over 1000

[Open Source Intelligence]

If you want to get into the weeds on the fall of Ochereotyne.

https://militaryland.net/news/the-failed-defense-of-ocheretyne-settlement/

[jaichind]

https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/plus251315956/Ukraine-Russlands-Horror-Waffe-fuer-die-naechste-Stufe-der-Brutalitaet.html

"With this horror weapon, Russia is reaching the next level of brutality"

Welt writes about the new Russian TOS-3 which is the new Dragon flamethrower system

[Hindsight was 2020]

Looks like the average number of killed Russian troops every day increased to over 1000

Not a surprise, despite the ammo issues, Ukraine still has a lot of drone to harass Russian lines

[jaichind]

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1895056/donald-trump-effigy-burned-ukraine-twitter

 "Ukrainian soldiers burn Donald Trump effigy and call him a 'traitor' in shocking video"

Sounds like another chapter in Ukraine genius foreign policy hedging strategy. 

[jaichind]

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-exploit-atacms-window-russia-1896472

"Ukraine Rushes To Exploit Short ATACMS Window"

"As we know, the Russians are able to adapt in a very short period of time," Ivan Stupak, a former officer in the Security Service of Ukraine and now an adviser to the Ukrainian parliament's national security, defense and intelligence committee, told Newsweek.

"I think we have up to two months to eliminate as many Russian war objects as is possible before the Russians will adapt," Stupak added.

Sounds like a validation of my narrative that the war is sort of a vaccine lab for Russia to get used to NATO weapons, in small quantities, and then figure out a way to deal with them and become "immune" to them.

It occurred to me that this entire conflict is sort of a Russian vaccine lab for NATO weapons.

NATO would send different NATO weapons to Ukraine in small quantities with one type at a time.  Each time they are used by not well-trained Ukranians so they are generally less effective than they could be especially in small quantities.  This allows the Russians to deal with these weapons and learn about their capabilities one at a time without dealing with the full downside of these weapons.  This makes the Russians that much more prepared to deal with these weapons in the future in the hands of well well-trained NATO military. 

It seems the F-16 later this year which will show up in small quantities with manned by a UAF that has limited training will be the next to show up as a NATO weapons vaccine in the Russian vaccine lab.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1895056/donald-trump-effigy-burned-ukraine-twitter

 "Ukrainian soldiers burn Donald Trump effigy and call him a 'traitor' in shocking video"

Sounds like another chapter in Ukraine genius foreign policy hedging strategy. 

Overworked jarheads are supposed to think and act like diplomats now? Or is it only if they're fighting for countries whose conquest and ethnic cleansing you're rooting for?

[jaichind]

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1895056/donald-trump-effigy-burned-ukraine-twitter

 "Ukrainian soldiers burn Donald Trump effigy and call him a 'traitor' in shocking video"

Sounds like another chapter in Ukraine genius foreign policy hedging strategy. 

Overworked jarheads are supposed to think and act like diplomats now? Or is it only if they're fighting for countries whose conquest and ethnic cleansing you're rooting for?

I was more think the Ukraine military and government should punish these folks for blowing up the situation with the USA and put out statements that such acts are totally unacceptable for the Ukraine militayr.  . Video like this will future consolidate the MAGA vote in the USA against Ukraine.

[Woody]

Military intelligence: Russian northern grouping “set to expand to between 50,000 and 70,000 troops” to gear up for assault on Kharkiv

According to Skibitskyi, currently, Russians have 35,000 troops in their northern grouping “across from Kharkiv” and 514,000 land troops “committed to Ukraine operation” in general. For an assault, Skibitskyi says the grouping “is set to expand to between 50,000 and 70,000 troops.”

https://gwaramedia.com/en/military-intelligence-russian-northern-grouping-set-to-expand-to-between-50-000-and-70-000-troops-to-gear-up-for-assault-on-kharkiv/

[jaichind]

Military intelligence: Russian northern grouping “set to expand to between 50,000 and 70,000 troops” to gear up for assault on Kharkiv

According to Skibitskyi, currently, Russians have 35,000 troops in their northern grouping “across from Kharkiv” and 514,000 land troops “committed to Ukraine operation” in general. For an assault, Skibitskyi says the grouping “is set to expand to between 50,000 and 70,000 troops.”

https://gwaramedia.com/en/military-intelligence-russian-northern-grouping-set-to-expand-to-between-50-000-and-70-000-troops-to-gear-up-for-assault-on-kharkiv/

I insist this is a bluff.  In 2024 Russia will focus on Donbas with any likely attacking force near Karkov being a decoy to draw away Ukraine reserves.

[GoTfan]

It could not be more obvious that Jaichind is rooting for Russia.