Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

...yes but what is black turnout like...

The talk in Pittsburgh is - very high

[Sam Spade]

Drudge:

Whites
Clinton 60%
Obama 40

Blacks
Clinton 8%
Obama 92

Ouch.

He did better in Pennsylvania than he did in Ohio.

If these race numbers are correct, with higher than expected black turnout, he can come within a few points. 40% is not great, but it's not as bad as he did in Ohio.

If that's what the actual numbers are, of course...

[War on Want]

Ouch!

1/3 of Obama voters would vote for McCain or stay home
Exactly 1/2 of Clinton voters would

Today's winner: Yet to be determined
Today's loser: The Democratic Party

Soon we'll come back to reality.

Hopefully....

[True Democrat]

Drudge:

Whites
Clinton 60%
Obama 40

Blacks
Clinton 8%
Obama 92

Ouch.

He did better in Pennsylvania than he did in Ohio.

If these race numbers are correct, with higher than expected black turnout, he can come within a few points. 40% is not great, but it's not as bad as he did in Ohio.

These are early numbers, remember.

[War on Want]

...yes but what is black turnout like...

The talk in Pittsburgh is - very high

I wonder if Obama even has a good chance to win Pittsburgh, with some of its suburbs, and Blacks voting for him heavily.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ouch!

1/3 of Obama voters would vote for McCain or stay home
Exactly 1/2 of Clinton voters would

Today's winner: Yet to be determined
Today's loser: The Democratic Party

[Sam Spade]

^^^^^^^^^^

lol

[Eraserhead]

Ouch!

1/3 of Obama voters would vote for McCain or stay home
Exactly 1/2 of Clinton voters would

Today's winner: Yet to be determined
Today's loser: The Democratic Party

Didn't need to see that.

[War on Want]

lol nice pic Al.

[J. J.]

Chris Matthews says he thinks Obama will get around 70% in Philly.  Is that a high prediction?

I thought he would be closer to 60-65%.

Jesse Jackson got about 58% of the vote in 1988, when the Black population was smaller.  I would say 65% minimum.


I think 70% in Phila could spell a problem in PA-1.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

I think 70% in Phila could spell a problem in PA-1.

But I think it's doable....agree?

[True Democrat]

...yes but what is black turnout like...

The talk in Pittsburgh is - very high

I wonder if Obama even has a good chance to win Pittsburgh, with some of its suburbs, and Blacks voting for him heavily.

Obama will win Pittsburgh.  I really don't doubt that.

Allegheny County will be close, but at this point I'd predict Clinton by 5.

Pittsburgh has a fairly high black population, plus some richer areas in the neighborhoods of Squirrel Hill and Shadyside (the latter being the richest, but the former being fairly Jewish, which might mix things up a bit).  I suspect that the North Hills (one group of suburbs) plus those towns along the Monongahela River (old coal mining towns) will vote strong for Clinton (though some towns along the Monongahela which were coal mining towns are now very poor and have large black populations, namely Braddock).  The South Hills will probably be split between Obama and Clinton.  These communities are significantly richer, and I have seen a lot of Obama support in my town (plus there are large student populations here that having been doing a lot for Obama).  However, there are also a lot of old people.  These southern suburbs are very white, however (I would say most towns are upwards of 95% white, with most of the rest being Asians).

Well, that's my analysis of Allegheny Count anyway.  I hope it helps.

[War on Want]

Chris Matthews says he thinks Obama will get around 70% in Philly.  Is that a high prediction?

I thought he would be closer to 60-65%.

Jesse Jackson got about 58% of the vote in 1988, when the Black population was smaller.  I would say 65% minimum.


I think 70% in Phila could spell a problem in PA-1.

70% could pretty easily happen. All Obama needs to do is get some of the Ethnic working class to vote for him. I have no idea on how some of these groups would go.

[True Democrat]

I saw an exit poll flashed at the bottom of MSNBC.  It said 58% women.  Not very good news for Obama.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Drudge:

Whites
Clinton 60%
Obama 40

Blacks
Clinton 8%
Obama 92

Ouch.

He did better in Pennsylvania than he did in Ohio.

If these race numbers are correct, with higher than expected black turnout, he can come within a few points. 40% is not great, but it's not as bad as he did in Ohio.

These are early numbers, remember.

Yup - I'll be interested to see what CNN.com's adjusted exit polls look like right at 8:00 PM EST. Their adjusted exit polls as soon as the Ohio polls closed were right on.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

...yes but what is black turnout like...

The talk in Pittsburgh is - very high

I wonder if Obama even has a good chance to win Pittsburgh, with some of its suburbs, and Blacks voting for him heavily.

Obama will win Pittsburgh.  I really don't doubt that.

Allegheny County will be close, but at this point I'd predict Clinton by 5.

Pittsburgh has a fairly high black population, plus some richer areas in the neighborhoods of Squirrel Hill and Shadyside (the latter being the richest, but the former being fairly Jewish, which might mix things up a bit).  I suspect that the North Hills (one group of suburbs) plus those towns along the Monongahela River (old coal mining towns) will vote strong for Clinton (though some towns along the Monongahela which were coal mining towns are now very poor and have large black populations, namely Braddock).  The South Hills will probably be split between Obama and Clinton.  These communities are significantly richer, and I have seen a lot of Obama support in my town (plus there are large student populations here that having been doing a lot for Obama).  However, there are also a lot of old people.  These southern suburbs are very white, however (I would say most towns are upwards of 95% white, with most of the rest being Asians).

Well, that's my analysis of Allegheny Count anyway.  I hope it helps.

And I think it may be spot on......living here I see what you see.

[War on Want]

...yes but what is black turnout like...

The talk in Pittsburgh is - very high

I wonder if Obama even has a good chance to win Pittsburgh, with some of its suburbs, and Blacks voting for him heavily.

Obama will win Pittsburgh.  I really don't doubt that.

Allegheny County will be close, but at this point I'd predict Clinton by 5.

Pittsburgh has a fairly high black population, plus some richer areas in the neighborhoods of Squirrel Hill and Shadyside (the latter being the richest, but the former being fairly Jewish, which might mix things up a bit).  I suspect that the North Hills (one group of suburbs) plus those towns along the Monongahela River (old coal mining towns) will vote strong for Clinton (though some towns along the Monongahela which were coal mining towns are now very poor and have large black populations, namely Braddock).  The South Hills will probably be split between Obama and Clinton.  These communities are significantly richer, and I have seen a lot of Obama support in my town (plus there are large student populations here that having been doing a lot for Obama).  However, there are also a lot of old people.  These southern suburbs are very white, however (I would say most towns are upwards of 95% white, with most of the rest being Asians).

Well, that's my analysis of Allegheny Count anyway.  I hope it helps.

Well I meant Allegheny County, because at this point I use counties to represent cities(stupid I know).  Well thanks for the analysis, the only thing I know about Pittsburgh is that it is around 30% black, and it is industrial.

[War on Want]

I saw an exit poll flashed at the bottom of MSNBC.  It said 58% women.  Not very good news for Obama.

I think that women won't vote for Clinton the way polls say they will. It all depends on which women have turned out anyways.

[exopolitician]

Men:

Obama: 53%
Clinton: 47%

Women:

Clinton: 55%
Obama: 44%

[Torie]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Actually Clinton would still win by a percentage point, but it won't be 18% black  anyway.

[War on Want]

Men:

Obama: 53%
Clinton: 47%

Women:

Clinton: 55%
Obama: 44%

These are actually pretty decent numbers. I was expecting Obama to only win Men by 1 or 2 points and loose women by slightly more.

[exopolitician]

Men:

Obama: 53%
Clinton: 47%

Women:

Clinton: 55%
Obama: 44%

Also:

race and age:
white 18-29            53-47 clinton
white 30-44            53-47 clinton
white 45-59            59-41 clinton
blacks                    92-8 obama

education:
high school            65-35 clinton
some college        50-49 obama
college grad          55-45 obama
postgrad                54-46 obama

family income
under 15K        51-49 obama
15-30k              56-44 clinton
30-50                57-43 clinton
50-75                53-47 clinton
75-100               54-46 obama
100-150             59-39 obama
200 plus            68-32 obama

[True Democrat]

...yes but what is black turnout like...

The talk in Pittsburgh is - very high

I wonder if Obama even has a good chance to win Pittsburgh, with some of its suburbs, and Blacks voting for him heavily.

Obama will win Pittsburgh.  I really don't doubt that.

Allegheny County will be close, but at this point I'd predict Clinton by 5.

Pittsburgh has a fairly high black population, plus some richer areas in the neighborhoods of Squirrel Hill and Shadyside (the latter being the richest, but the former being fairly Jewish, which might mix things up a bit).  I suspect that the North Hills (one group of suburbs) plus those towns along the Monongahela River (old coal mining towns) will vote strong for Clinton (though some towns along the Monongahela which were coal mining towns are now very poor and have large black populations, namely Braddock).  The South Hills will probably be split between Obama and Clinton.  These communities are significantly richer, and I have seen a lot of Obama support in my town (plus there are large student populations here that having been doing a lot for Obama).  However, there are also a lot of old people.  These southern suburbs are very white, however (I would say most towns are upwards of 95% white, with most of the rest being Asians).

Well, that's my analysis of Allegheny Count anyway.  I hope it helps.

Well I meant Allegheny County, because at this point I use counties to represent cities(stupid I know).  Well thanks for the analysis, the only thing I know about Pittsburgh is that it is around 30% black, and it is industrial.

WAS industrial.  There's a few steel jobs left, but nothing significant.  Pittsburgh is now fairly high-tech, but it's still bleeding jobs (though the metropolitan area is pretty static, IIRC).

There's also the question of if students registered in Pennsylvania or in their home states.  Oakland (the neighborhood where the University of Pittsburgh and Carnegie Mellon are located) is pretty poor, except for the college areas.  These are significant college populations, but I just don't know where they're registered (of course, Pitt is a state-affiliated school, so a lot of the students are from PA anyway).

[Torie]

All these numbers if true point to a 4% Clinton margin. Geraghty at Campaign Spot must be thinking at the moment that he is clairvoyant.

[War on Want]

...yes but what is black turnout like...

The talk in Pittsburgh is - very high

I wonder if Obama even has a good chance to win Pittsburgh, with some of its suburbs, and Blacks voting for him heavily.

Obama will win Pittsburgh.  I really don't doubt that.

Allegheny County will be close, but at this point I'd predict Clinton by 5.

Pittsburgh has a fairly high black population, plus some richer areas in the neighborhoods of Squirrel Hill and Shadyside (the latter being the richest, but the former being fairly Jewish, which might mix things up a bit).  I suspect that the North Hills (one group of suburbs) plus those towns along the Monongahela River (old coal mining towns) will vote strong for Clinton (though some towns along the Monongahela which were coal mining towns are now very poor and have large black populations, namely Braddock).  The South Hills will probably be split between Obama and Clinton.  These communities are significantly richer, and I have seen a lot of Obama support in my town (plus there are large student populations here that having been doing a lot for Obama).  However, there are also a lot of old people.  These southern suburbs are very white, however (I would say most towns are upwards of 95% white, with most of the rest being Asians).

Well, that's my analysis of Allegheny Count anyway.  I hope it helps.

Well I meant Allegheny County, because at this point I use counties to represent cities(stupid I know).  Well thanks for the analysis, the only thing I know about Pittsburgh is that it is around 30% black, and it is industrial.

WAS industrial.  There's a few steel jobs left, but nothing significant.  Pittsburgh is now fairly high-tech, but it's still bleeding jobs (though the metropolitan area is pretty static, IIRC).

There's also the question of if students registered in Pennsylvania or in their home states.  Oakland (the neighborhood where the University of Pittsburgh and Carnegie Mellon are located) is pretty poor, except for the college areas.  These are significant college populations, but I just don't know where they're registered (of course, Pitt is a state-affiliated school, so a lot of the students are from PA anyway).

I should have put was, I know it isn't that industrial now, but for some reason I didn't put it down. Where are the more major steel/manufacturing jobs at in PN now? I am pretty sure Erie has some, but other than that...