AL-2: Democrats score recruitment coup with Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright

[Adlai Stevenson]

Democrats scored a major recruitment coup in the open CD-2 seat being vacated by retiring Congressman Terry Everett (R). Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright -- a non-partisan conservative who had openly discussed seeking the seat this year as a either a Democrat or Republican -- has decided to run as a Democrat. He will make his formal announcement this week. State Representative Terry Spicer and dentist Cendie Crawley are also seeking the Dem nomination. State Senator Hari Anne Smith, State Representatives David Grimes and Jay Love, and dentist Craig Schmidtke are the announced GOP candidates. While the Republicans hold a solid advantage here, Bright's candidacy puts the seat in play. Race rating: GOP Favored.

http://www.politics1.com/

[Adlai Stevenson]

I think it will be an uphill race for Bright - AL-2 is rated 'R+13' and voted 67%-33% for Bush in 2004, and 61%-38% for him in 2000.  Obama might do a little better than Kerry in this District but I wouldn't say he was an advantage to run with in Alabama - polls show him doing quite badly against McCain. Still the black population is apparently 29.4%, and although the Hispanic population is only 1.5%, who knows, in a close race that could make all the difference.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Its interesting that AL-2 has come-up as a pick-up opportunity for Democrats when the seat they should really be going after in Alabama is AL-3, which has a higher black population and which has only re-elected Congressman Mike Rogers with margins just above 60% in 2004 and 2006.  AL-3 was the site of a very close open race in 2002 with current Chairman of the Alabama Democratic Party Joe Turnham being narrowly defeated by Rogers 50%-48%.  The Bush margin in AL-3 is smaller as well. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

But AL-2 should be a safe seat. I'm not sure that the Democrats can win it, even with a star candidate.

What are your thoughts on AL-3?