Anyone else just want to drink, or cry?

[The_Doctor]

The Republican Party is headed on a crash course with economics and demography. They made a Faustian bargain with the devil, in a sense. They made a bet on doubling down on working class white voters and made the gamble there's enough white voters to win over the next decade.

Trump's election did something no other Republican president's election would have. It sealed that bargain and puts the GOP on a decade long trajectory that will end with realignment towards the Democrats. In essence, the GOP agreed to maybe a decade, maybe 12 year's worth of rule but agreed to give up the next 50 after that. Politics in American life tends to be on 50 year cycles. (Sometimes, shorter, sometimes longer).

That said, it is a fatal mistake that the GOP elected Trump in the short term. President Trump now has two GOP's - the limited government intellectual class and the new dominant working class base. Trust me, neither likes each other, and President Trump does not possess the political skills to give both just enough power to competently govern. His Presidency will be modeled on Harding's but given the disparate factions ruling the GOP, Trump will barely control his party. Between being a first time politician and not really understanding the federal bureaucracy, Trump will be stymied within his first two years. As he grows frustrated and stymied, other power centers will begin to take center stage and he will become a captive president, held captive by dysfunction and stagnation. Oh, also, the capital will recognize he lost the popular vote by 1.2%

Economically, between now and 2024, the GOP will try their usual economic strategy of tax cuts and deficit spending and deregulation to goose the economy. It won't work because honestly, these tools are outdated to handle the economic situation and wage growth and deflation is a major issue, not inflation. So the GOP strategies will fail and the GOP, unable to do anything, will double down on these strategies to try to get the economy going. Trump will do it, Pence will do it, and they will try their hardest to enact these policies. This is typical for aging majorities that are on their way out.

Back to the Democrats.

Bernie Sanders is a crucial figure as is Barack Obama. Eventually the Democratic Party will synthesize the two visions that they both had into one unifying agenda and platform. That will end up being THE crucial step setting the framework for the dominant Democratic majority, which will rule from around 2024-2030 to 2065-2070. The downside, the Democrats may lose 2020 and enter civil war but they will eventually get the synthesis right and the next time they build a majority in Congress, it will last.

Working class whites from the Midwest, upscale college grads and post-grads, and minorities will form the backbone of this new pluralistic and technocratic majority. By the latest statistics, America is like 61% white, and minorities made up 30% of the electorate in the exit polls.
The economic changes is what prevents the GOP from settling in and polarizing the white vote. Trump may win re-election and top out at 61-62% of the white vote, but economic forces will make sure that a sizable chunk of whites will vote Democratic. (the same forces and the fact whites will make up 62-64% of the electorate in 2024-2028 means the realigning president will be a white male).

We will likely spend our middle ages and our older years under a string of liberal governments (both Democratic and Republican). The prevailing Reagan orthodoxy will be replaced by an Obama-Sanders synthesis that prioritizes IT, renewables, technology, and the Silicon Valley sector. This is what the GOP has foreclosed on appealing to with Trump's Presidency.

[The_Doctor]

Looks like Sanchez is euphoric at the probability of his brother losing Medicaid. Not surprising.

Ironic considering that you voted for the Romney/Ryan ticket which was probably the most openly anti-poor ticket in history. Nice to see that you're not above picking on my autistic brother.

I'm feeling euphoria. Calm down and keep your concerns in the "sky is falling megathread."

Euphoria? My mother who worked as a nurse for 30 years, who contracted Hepatitis C while working as a nurse, got a liver transplant in 2013. She survives by taking around ten different medications a day. Medicare makes it so that the cost of these medications, while still high, doesn't bankrupt her. If she didn't have these medications she would die. I am sure my mother did more for her fellow man than you, or Paul Ryan, ever did or ever will. She does not deserve to lose her coverage and die because you and people like you think Ayn Rand is God.

Uh, my brother relies on Medicaid too. It isn't going anywhere. Quit projecting your own weakness and lack of motivation on a great man like our big beautiful President-elect and get out and do something for your own candidate. You guys lost because of your own overconfidence, ineptness, and continuous ability to isolate your rapidly shrinking coalition from the rest of America which has all of the same problems that people like your mom who may or may not have been through what you are posting about. Get over yourselves. Trump voters have problems with their lives too. And that is why we elected him.

People have forgotten that Paul Ryan is quite an ideologue.

Well, yes, mainly because Clinton supporters and the media are driving this narrative that he is somehow a moderate compared to Trump. It is the opposite. You should have begun to panic when Boehner stepped down in hindsight.

Yes. Trump/Ryan/McConnell are going to make sure YOUR brother keeps his health insurance. You know you've been played, right? Every indication is that they are going to try and gut what they can. If they succeed, GOOD LUCK!

Every indication is that you seem to wanting this to happen to our family rather than predicting it.

Oh it'll happen. Between the ideological Republicans and Trump being a figurehead as President, it will. You did vote for it, though, so honestly, you shouldn't express shock or surprise when it happens. Trump voters will be surprised that their lives will not appreciably improve in the next four years, just as Obama voters were surprised that they didn't live in the Elysian fields in 2016.

"Victorious deplorable" you may be but in the end, Trump will not really help you or your brother. Status quo economy, status quo government will largely prevail if not reduced.