2006 Dutch election

[freek]

Christian Democratic Appeal - Christian democrats, current ruling party
Labour - typical European center-left party, much like the German SPD or pre-Blair Labour

I'd say Blairite Labour. Not that much difference in policies.

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Yeah. Although the "Fundi" part of the German Greens (the hardcore environmentalists) hardly exists in the Dutch Greens. GreenLeft was formed in 1990 from 4 smaller leftist parties with green tendencies, one of them being the Communist Party (at that time more a feminist than a communist party though).  There already existed a green party in the Netherlands, "De Groenen" (The Greens). They never had much success because of the other small leftist parties, and where left out of the GreenLeft merger.

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Overall a nice characterization of the Dutch political parties Red, couldn't have done it better.

[freek]

The preliminary date for the early elections is Wednesday November 22.

[freek]

Who are you voting for by the way?

I am eligible to vote since 1998. Since then I usually voted VVD, but at the moment I am in doubt between VVD and CDA. Why? The VVD is divided at the moment in two wings, based on their stances on immigration etc. The differences between them:

One is the Verdonk. Tough on immigrants and the islam, and against state funded muslim schools (and because of that also against state funded christian schools). Usually a provocative style of politics.

The other one is the Rutte wing. Rutte is the new VVD leader. He is a more social liberal, pro state funded christian & muslim schools, and he thinks that Verdonk is a bit too tough on immigration.

I want to wait until it becomes more clear which of the two wings will "win". If it is Verdonk, I vote CDA, if it is Rutte I vote VVD.

Oh, I have been thinking about your characterization of the SGP:

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It gives a correct summary of their program (the SGP website is closed on Sundays ). However, the quality of SGP politicians is very high. They are absolutely not nutjobs. They are hardworking, give good speeches and are usually quite tolerant to other parties. They always stick by their principles, and they are well-respected for this. Because of this, the SGP takes part in quite some local governments, and with some success.

[freek]

Timeline until the upcoming election of November 22 (seems to be the official date now)

August 28: New parties need to have registered their name with the electoral council if they want to have their name on top of their candidate list.

October 10: Only on this day candidate lists can be submitted. Parties can choose if they want to take part in a limited number of districts, or in all 19 districts. For a list to be declared valid in a district, it needs 30 people in this district to support the list (so 570 people to take part on a national level). People can show their support for a list by placing an autograph on a form at city hall in their municipality of residence.

November 22: Elections. Polls are open from 0730am to 2100pm.

November 30: New Second Chamber gathers for the first time, new MPs are sworn in.

[freek]

From the other topic, The Dutch government has fallen

Latest polls:

30/06/2006  InterVIEW/NSS

Coalition:

CDA 24.4% - 38 seats (- 6 seats)
VVD 18.9% - 29 seats (+ 1 seat)
D66   3.1% -   4 seats  (- 2 seats)

Opposition:

PvdA 28.1% - 44 seats (+2)   ---  PvdA has been losing ground in the polls the last months. In March, after the local elections they had 60 seats in the polls. ----
SP     11.2% - 17 seats (+8)
LPF     0.5%  -  0  seats (-8)
GroenL 6.4% - 10 seats (+2)
ChristenU 3.5% - 5 seats (+2)
SGP    1.6% -   2 seats (+0)
PvdV  1.2%  -   1 seat (PvdV = Freedom Party from former VVD MP Geert Wilders)
Other Parties 1.3% - 0 seats (although the Animal's Party is close to 1 seat)

http://www.politiekebarometer.nl

On the website is an archive, they conduct a poll every week

[freek]

Latest polls:
21/07/2006  InterVIEW/NSS (Comparison with 30 June 2006)

Coalition:

CDA 25.5% - 39 seats (+ 1 seat)
VVD 19.0% - 29 seats (no change)
D66   1.5% -   2 seats  (- 2 seats)

Opposition:

PvdA 31.2% - 48 seats (+4)
SP     10.1% - 15 seats (-2)
LPF     0.4%  -  0  seats (no change)
GroenL 4.6% - 7 seats (-3)
ChristenU 4.5% - 7 seats (+2)
SGP    1.3% -   2 seats (+0)
PvdV  0.7%  -   1 seat (no change)
Other Parties 1.2% - 0 seats (although the Animal's Party is close to 1 seat)

http://www.politiekebarometer.nl

[freek]

Latest polls:
01/09/2006  InterVIEW/NSS (Comparison with 21 July 2006)

Coalition:

CDA 23.9% - 37 seats (- 2 seats)
VVD 21.1% - 32 seats (+ 3 seats)
D66   1.4% -   2 seats  (no change)

Opposition:

PvdA 30.3% - 47 seats (+1)
SP     9.2% - 14 seats (-1)
LPF     0.0%  -  0  seats (no change)
GroenL 5.4% - 8 seats (+1)
ChristenU 4.4% - 6 seats (-1)
SGP    1.5% -   2 seats (+0)
PvdV  1.6%  -   2 seats (+1)
Other Parties 1.2% - 0 seats (although the Animal's Party is close to 1 seat)

http://www.politiekebarometer.nl

[freek]

Can someone please change the title? The elections are still 3 months away.

[freek]

Latest polls:
29/09/2006  InterVIEW/NSS (Comparison with 1 September 2006)

For the first time in 3.5 years, PvdA isn't the largest party in the InterVIEW/NSS-poll and the CDA seems to make a come back. Apart from LPF and SP, every party is about as popular as they were back in January 2003.

Coalition:

CDA 27.9% - 43 seats (+ 6 seats)
VVD 17.4% - 27 seats (- 5 seats)
D66   1.4% -   2 seats  (no change)

Opposition:

PvdA 27.8% - 43 seats (-4)
SP     11.4% - 17 seats (+3)
LPF     0.6%  -  0  seats (no change)
GroenL 5.1% - 8 seats (no change)
ChristenU 4.3% - 6 seats (no change)
SGP    1.8% -   2 seats (+0)
PVV  0.8%  -   1 seat (-1)
EénNL (OneNL) 0.7% - 1 seat (+1)
Other Parties 0.8% - 0 seats (although the Animal's Party is still close to 1 seat)

http://www.politiekebarometer.nl

EénNL is founded by members of the local Rotterdam party "Leefbaar Rotterdam" (Livable Rotterdam), which was led by Pim Fortuyn and became the largest party of Rotterdam in 2002, from scratch. They governed Rotterdam in a controversial LR/CDA/VVD-coalition until the local elections of March 2006. In EénNL they were joined by a breakaway LPF MP and a breakaway VVD MP. In my opinion they have a better chance to survive than both LPF and PVV.

[freek]

Is PVV Geert Wilders breakaway party?

Yes. It is the Partij voor de Vrijheid (Freedom Party). I thought it was abbreviated PvdV, but Wilders prefers PVV.

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Anton van Schijndel (VVD). Entered parliament about a year ago, he was the most rightwing VVD MP. He wasn't happy with his 35th place on the VVD list, and left the party. Now he is number 7 on the EenNL-list.

Joost Eerdmans (LPF). One of the best known LPF MPs, MP since 2002. He focused in parliament primarily on criminals (he recently proposed law on the introduction of minimum sentences for murder etc) and animal rights. Number 2 on the EenNL list.

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OneNL. NL being the international abbreviation of the Netherlands.

[freek]

I'd vote for the Christian Democratic Appeal, though I would also put the Christian Union in consideration.   

I didn't know you were a Calvinist theocrat Frodo?

Christian Union is Calvinist, but not theocratic. That's the SGP. Christian Union is more like CDA+.

[freek]

Why has LPF fallen so far? Is it because the VVD has taken some of it's support?(Verdonk and before a few months ago Hirsi Ali)?

That's a part of the story. Since its foundation, the LPF has been an unstable party. A lot of internal fighting, about various issues.

Some former LPF voters may vote VVD now, because of Verdonk. Other voters may switch to the PVV of Wilders, or EenNL from Pastors. Both parties have ideas similar to the LPF.

Other former LPF voters may vote SP, also a party with many lower class voters. Or they do the same as former LPF MP Margot Kraneveldt, and return to the PvdA, where many of the former LPF voters came from.

[freek]

The elections are 3.5 weeks away, the campaign is heating up slowly, and it looks like it will be a race between CDA and PvdA about who will be the largest party, just like 2003. When someone would have predicted 6 months ago that CDA could win the elections, he would have been locked away in a madhouse.

Most probable coalition: CDA/PvdA. It will be a "fighting cabinet" for sure, just like the last 3 attempts (Den Uyl 1973-1977, Van Agt-II 1981-1982, Lubbers-III 1989-1994). CDA feels much more at ease when governing with the VVD.

Other possibilities: a CDA/VVD-reprise, PvdA/GrLinks/SP (the horror...) or CDA/VVD/ChristenUnie. However, all 3 lack a majority in the polls.

The polls are stabilising a bit, but the expected traditional downfall of SP a few weeks before the elections has not happened yet. It seems to be happening with the ChristenUnie though.

Latest polls:
27/10/2006  InterVIEW/NSS (Comparison with 29 September 2006) (2003 results)


Coalition:

CDA 29.8% - 47 seats (+ 4 seats) (2003: 28.6% - 44 seats)
VVD 16.1% - 25 seats (- 2 seats) (2003: 17.9% - 28 seats)

Opposition:

PvdA 27.6% - 44 seats (+1) (2003: 27.3% - 42 seats)
SP     12.4% - 19 seats (+2) (2003: 6.3% - 9 seats)
Fortuyn*    1.2%  -  1  seat  (+1) (2003: 5.7% - 8 seats)
GroenL 3.7% - 5 seats (-3) (2003: 5.1% - 8 seats)
D66   1.8% -   2 seats  (no change) (2003: 4.1% - 6 seats)
ChristenU 2.7% - 4 seats (-2) (2003: 2.1% - 3 seats)
SGP    1.8% -   2 seats (no change) (2003: 1.6% - 2 seats)
PVV (Wilders)  0.5%  -   0 seats (-1) (2003: not participated)
EénNL (OneNL) 0.5% - 0 seats (-1) (2003: not participated)
Partij voor de Dieren (Animal's Party): 1.2% - 1 seat (+1) (2003: 0.5% - no seats)
Other Parties 0.7% - 0 seats

http://www.politiekebarometer.nl

* Lijst 5 Fortuyn (short: Fortuyn) is the new name for the Lijst Pim Fortuyn (LPF). 5 is the number of their list, because they were the 5th largest party in 2003. For the first time in 6 months, they win a seat in the polls.

[freek]

In the Netherlands, apart from 10 (out of 500) small municipalities, voting machines are used throughout the country.

Yesterday, the Home Office has revoked the license for a certain type of voting machine, used in 35 municipalities, most notably Amsterdam, Tilburg and Eindhoven. The reason: it was found out that these Windows-PC's emit too much electric radiation (is that the correct word?). These signals carry about 40 metres. With the right equipment and antenna, this can be used to find out what people are voting, thereby violating the right for a secret ballot.

For the other 90% of the machines, the radiation carries only max 5 metres, making it much harder to intercept it. They are still allowed, but there are not enough spare machines available to replace the "illegal" 10%.

This means that at least in Amsterdam, and probably also some other municipalities, paper ballots will have to be used again. Amsterdam just switched to voting machines last March, and they sold their polling booths a few months ago. Now they have to beg the buyers if they can use them again.

The Home Office order this enquiry after a committee founded by ex-hackers found this out. They had some other complaints, they managed to hack one of the voting machines, and rebuilt it in a chess computer. . This and other complaints will also be researched. (http://www.wijvertrouwenstemcomputersniet.nl/English)

Although I don't live in one of the 35 municipalities, it does have some consequences for me. I work in Amsterdam, and I am not able to cast my vote in my home municipality of Groningen (too far away). Since it is not possible to cast an absentee ballot in the Netherlands if you don't live or work abroad, it is possible to request a voter registration card which makes it possible to vote in a random polling station throughout the country. Results are calculated on a national basis anyway, so that is not a problem. This means that I will cast my vote in Amsterdam, and this means that I will have to use a paper ballot for the first time in my  "voting career" (since 1998).

[freek]

10 days to go, and the last few days CDA has gained a lot of momentum. PvdA (and for a bit the VVD) is the party that gets hit all the time. Everything PvdA leader Bos says causes more loss in the polls. He is seen as too slick, making U-turns all the time, and as not trustworthy. He loses votes to both CDA and SP. The SP is almost the third party now, just as big as the VVD.

In the polls the difference between CDA and PvdA is 5%/8 seats.

Latest polls:
10 Nov 2006  InterVIEW/NSS (Comparison with 27 Oct 2006) (2003 results)


Coalition:

CDA 30.7% - 47 seats (no change) (2003: 28.6% - 44 seats)
VVD 15.3% - 23 seats (- 2 seats) (2003: 17.9% - 28 seats)

Opposition:

PvdA 25.6% - 39 seats (-5) (2003: 27.3% - 42 seats)
SP     12.6% - 20 seats (+1) (2003: 6.3% - 9 seats)
Fortuyn*    0.5%  -  0  seats  (-1) (2003: 5.7% - 8 seats)
GroenL 4.7% - 7 seats (+2) (2003: 5.1% - 8 seats)
D66   1.6% -   2 seats  (no change) (2003: 4.1% - 6 seats)
ChristenU 3.0% - 5 seats (+1) (2003: 2.1% - 3 seats)
SGP    1.7% -   2 seats (no change) (2003: 1.6% - 2 seats)
PVV (Wilders)  1.6%  -   2 seats (+2) (2003: not participated)
EénNL (OneNL) 0.8% - 1 seat (+1) (2003: not participated)
Partij voor de Dieren (Animal's Party): 1.3% - 2 seats (+1) (2003: 0.5% - no seats)
Other Parties 0.7% - 0 seats

http://www.politiekebarometer.nl

[freek]

[..]

Latest polls:
10 Nov 2006  InterVIEW/NSS (Comparison with 27 Oct 2006) (2003 results)

[..]
PvdA 25.6% - 39 seats (-5) (2003: 27.3% - 42 seats)
SP     12.6% - 20 seats (+1) (2003: 6.3% - 9 seats)

[..]

http://www.politiekebarometer.nl

It is becoming more and more dramatic for the PvdA...

Yesterday, a new InterVIEW/NSS poll was published. Compared with the Nov 10 poll, there was hardly any change. There was 1 exception though:

In 3 days time, PvdA managed to lose 4.2%, or 6 seats, to 33 seats. On the other hand, the SP won 4.0%, or 6 seats, to a total of 26, making the SP virtually the third party of the Netherlands. The projected move of SP-voters to the PvdA is not happening, instead more and more voters who planned to vote strategically for the PvdA now follow their heart and say they will vote SP.

[freek]

It is not updated with today's poll yet, the changes are not that shocking, but PvdA is increasing to 35 (+4) seats, and SP is decreasing to 24 (-6) seats.

[freek]

I am quite busy today and tomorrow, but I will try to be online as much as possible.

3 links where results will be published tomorrow evening (polls close at 2100CET):

NOS (national television)
Algemeen Dagblad (newspaper)
NRC Handelsblad (newspaper)

[freek]

Politieke Barometer Poll 11/20

You just missed today's poll

CDA 26.5% - 41 seats
PvdA 24.1% - 37 seats
SP 15.0% - 23 seats
VVD 14.8% - 23 seats
GL 4.4% - 7 seats
CU 4.0% - 6 seats
Wilders/PVV 3.1% - 4 seats
D66 2.2% - 3 seats
SGP 1.7% - 2 seats
PvdD 1.6% - 2 seats
Fortuyn 1.2% - 1 seat
EenNL 0.8% - 1 seat

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There is some speculation now about the formation of a minority CDA/VVD cabinet that will seek support by either CU/SGP/Wilders/Fortuyn/EenNL or support by the left wing.

Formation of a coalition will be difficult. There was quite some animosity between PvdA and CDA this election campaign, and although the SP is very eager to show that they are ready to take part in a coalition, it is unlikely that they will be allowed to do so.

It is expected that a new coalition will only be formed after the provincial elections in March 2007, because the newly elected provincial parliaments have to vote for a new First Chamber (Senate, has right of veto) shortly afterwards.

[freek]

The polls opened 3 hours ago. I was one of the first in my polling station, in Amsterdam. I found it quite symbolical that I had to put my ballot in a refitted (unused) garbage container, that is used as a ballot box today. .

Amsterdam chose for this solution because they sold all their ballot boxes earlier this year when they switched to voting machines. The type of voting machines used in Amsterdam saw their official registration annulled when it was found out that they emitted quite some electric radiation.

I voted CDA, list candidate #5, fmr. Minister of Justice Donner.

[freek]

Oh so the Netherlands is Open List PR I'm guessing? Interesting.

It is more or less open list PR. List order is followed unless candidates receive more than 1/600th of the total number of valid votes (for all parties). See this link for more information: http://www.electionresources.net/nl/

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My default party is VVD, but I didn't like their program this time and I dislike certain VVDmembers of the cabinet. Especially the minister for Immigration.

[freek]

Why are the "Party of the Animals" doing so well?

A lot of media attention because of some famous Dutchmen (writers, actors, etc) are standing for the party (on the bottom of their list, it is just to show their support).

GreenLeft is becoming more and more a leftwing liberal party, and they are losing their focus on the environment.

There are a lot of chicken, pig and mink farms in the Netherlands. Now and then there are breakouts of diseases, and more and more people switch to organic meat (in contrast to the "bio industry" as it is called here)

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Democrats 66. Founded in 1966.

[freek]

Which polling firm is the most accurate?

My experience is that InterVIEW/NSS (Poltieke Barometer) is more accurate, the other 2 are internet based. InterVIEW/NSS calls people. Especially peil.nl showed huge fluctuations the last 2-3 years.

[freek]

Exit polls from NOS/RTL  (seats):

CDA   43/38
PvdA   35/34
VVD   21/20
SP   24/30
GroenLinks   8/6
LVF   0/0
D66   2/2
ChristenUnie   5/7
SGP   2/2
PVV   6/8
Eén NL   1/1
PvdD   3/2


http://frontpage.fok.nl/nieuws/70711

CDA = christian democrats
PvdA = social democrats  "Labour"
VVD = rightwing liberals / conservatives
SP = populist socialist
GroenLinks = Greens
LVF = Fortuyn (not Loyalist Volunteer Front )
D66 = leftwing liberal
ChristenUnie = Christian Democrats +  (pro-life, but left wing)
SGP = protestant fundamentalist
PVV (Wilders) = xenophobic, rightwing (not racist...)
EénNL = Fortuyn-style, in between PVV and VVD
PvdD = Animal rights

[freek]

prognosis after 11% counted (NOS):

CDA 41
PvdA 33
VVD 22
SP 25
Fortuyn 0
GL 7
D66 3
CU 7
SGP 2
PvdD 2
PVV 8