2012: America's Future Decided - The Romney Administration

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Nice choice of Chris Cristie! However, I don't think that'll help Romney with the South or the West, and with all the Tea Party voters. Cristie is also 'privately pro-life', however, he doesn't believe in implementing that view on people as Governor. A third party might be able to gain significant traction from that.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I find Obama's list of potential VP picks fascinating. Obama obviously wants to appeal to the center. A wise decision, and the way things are shaping up, it might be the only thing that keeps him from getting thoroughly humiliated in the election.

The Christie pick surprised me- I would have guessed Gingrich or Johnson.

[Yelnoc]

I don't think Romney's VP pick will do him any good.  Christie does nothing to shore up the base; the social conservatives must be very skeptical of Romney if the primary battle went all the way to the end before Gingrich barely lost.  This could set the stage for a challenger to his right.  I doubt it would be an establishment figure but maybe someone like Herman Cain who has loads of money, a big following, and strong social conservative principles could seize on to those disenchanted voters.  It may be too late for him to get into the race though....

As to Obama, appealing to the center is smart.  I think he will go with Warner.

[feeblepizza]

August 23, 2012: Talk radio host Herman Cain announces that he will be running for President in the general election, as an independent.

"I cannot stand by and watch my party nominate two pro-choice, pro-gun control liberals. Therefore, I will be challenging both Governor Romney and President Obama for the White House this year. My running-mate will be announced on the 27th." --- Herman Cain, Atlanta, Georgia

August 25, 2012: More polls are out:

Romney 360
Obama 178

Nevada
Romney 41%
Obama 40%
Cain 13%

Colorado
Romney 36%
Obama 35%
Cain 19%

Minnesota
Romney 40%
Obama 39%
Cain 10%

Iowa
Romney 40%
Obama 35%
Cain 11%

Wisconsin
Romney 43%
Obama 41%
Cain 11%

Michigan
Romney 40%
Obama 37%
Cain 14%

Pennsylvania
Romney 40%
Obama 36%
Cain 12%

New Jersey
Romney 41%
Obama 40%
Cain 10%

New Hampshire
Romney 45%
Obama 38%
Cain 19%

Herman Cain is polling in double digits in all states, and performing best in Colorado and New Hampshire. Oregon is now considered solidly Obama. So far, however, Cain has done nothing to Romney's massive hypothetical Electoral Vote margin.

August 27, 2012: Herman Cain announces that his running-mate will be:

When Mike Huckabee is asked why he accepted his place on the Cain ticket: "I don't like Mitt," was his only response.

August 27-September 1, 2012: The Republican National Convention is held at St. Pete's Forum in Tampa, Florida. The keynote speaker is Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fl). Other speakers included Newt Gingrich, George Pataki, Tim Pawlenty, and George W. Bush.

August 28, 2012: President Obama's running-mate is:

U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, a Republican and former U.S. Senator from Nebraska, will be President Obama's running-mate in the 2012 presidential election. The Obama/Hagel ticket, commonly expected in 2008, is now a reality.

September 3-7, 2012: The Democratic National Convention is held in Charlotte, North Carolina. The keynote address was delivered by Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York. Other speakers included Evan Bayh, Mark Warner, Al Gore, and Hillary Clinton.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I have a couple of questions.

1. Where is Cain's support coming from? After Cain's entrance into the race, polls show Romney's electoral lead increasing, yet Cain is polling in the double digits.

2. What are pundits saying about Obama's pick of Hagel? This is the first bipartisan presidential ticket since Lincoln/Johnson in 1864- it's obviously something that would be talked about.

[feeblepizza]

I have a couple of questions.

1. Where is Cain's support coming from? After Cain's entrance into the race, polls show Romney's electoral lead increasing, yet Cain is polling in the double digits.

2. What are pundits saying about Obama's pick of Hagel? This is the first bipartisan presidential ticket since Lincoln/Johnson in 1864- it's obviously something that would be talked about.

Yeah, I'm not quite getting how the electorate can possibly be so conservative. In Minnesota, a state that hasn't voted Republican in I don't know how long, you have Romney and Cain combining for 55% of the vote. In NJ, Cain and Romney combine for 62% of the vote!? In New Jersey?? I get where you're trying to do with this, but as a conservative, I think you're making the electorate waaaay too conservative. Even with a near 11% unemployment rate. 62% in NJ?

Thanks for bringing that to my attention. I just pull numbers out of nowhere and hope they work, and these numbers apparently aren't working. I'll change them.

And to answer Vazdul's questions -

1. Cain's support is coming from Tea Partiers who are dissatisfied with Romney and Christie (two people who are relatively moderate)

2. Pundits aren't surprised at Obama/Hagel, due to the fact that Hagel endorsed Obama in 2008 and is relatively liberal (his opposition to the War on Terror, his social liberalism, and his liberal immigration policy).

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

1.Cain's support is coming from Tea Partiers who are dissatisfied with Romney and Christie (two people who are relatively moderate)

That's what I thought, but the numbers didn't really seem to suggest that Cain was detracting too many votes from Romney, despite his relatively good performance.

[feeblepizza]

1.Cain's support is coming from Tea Partiers who are dissatisfied with Romney and Christie (two people who are relatively moderate)

That's what I thought, but the numbers didn't really seem to suggest that Cain was detracting too many votes from Romney, despite his relatively good performance.

The Tea Party is divided between Cain/Huckabee (the conservatives, for obvious reasons) and Romney/Christie (because Christie has what they want - the guts to do what needs to be done - he's just not favored as much as Cain/Huckabee).

[California8429]

Well it's Obama for sure :/

[feeblepizza]

September 28, 2012: Despite polling at 14%, Herman Cain was not be allowed in the presidential debate. Romney and Obama, however, still had a lively argument over national security (the debate topic):

"North Korea has a fully operational nuclear program. Iran is developing weapons as a fast pace. Israel's security is being disregarded by the United States. We've deserted Iraq, and our presence in Afghanistan is nowhere near productive. Our nuclear capability if being hijacked. And on top of all that, President Obama is going around apologizing to America's enemies. Frankly, we're not safe under this Administration." --- Mitt Romney

"The United States has been spending billions of dollars on dead end wars in the Middle East. We've been pursuing a brutish, counterproductive foreign policy for awhile now. My Administration has changed that. The U.S. is no longer the boss; we're cooperating with other nations and acknowledging that we can't have everything we want." --- Barack Obama

Who Won the Debate?
Romney 56%
Obama 41%

Conservative talk radio host Michael Savage (a supporter of the Cain/Huckabee ticket) called President Obama a "threat to the nation" for saying that "the U.S. is no longer the boss." Most other pundits agreed that this comment was ill-conceived, as it made President Obama look as if he thought America had dropped from its Number One spot in world affairs.

September 29, 2012: Herman Cain posted a fifty minute speech on his foreign policy on his website as a substitute for his inability to appear in the debate. Over 1,000,000 Americans hit his website to view the speech.

October 1, 2012: Polls show that Romney is still leading, while Cain has now broken the 15% mark and will be allowed in the two upcoming debates (Mike Huckabee will be able to debate as well).

General Election Polls, September 2012
Romney 35%
Obama 33%
Cain 18%

October 2, 2012: The vice-presidential debate was held, and three candidates participated: U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel (a Republican representing the Democratic ticket), Governor Chris Christie (a Republican representing the Republican ticket), and Mike Huckabee (a Republican representing a third-party ticket).

The three Republicans were questioned on everything from economics to foreign policy to the environment. Overall, Hagel was said to have had the best composure and thus to have won the debate; most say that Christie came off as "irritated and angry." Most said that Huckabee performed well also.

Who Won the Debate?
Hagel 33%
Huckabee 32%
Christie 29%

Who Would Make the Best President?
Hagel 30%
Huckabee 30%
Christie 30%

October 6, 2012: The vice-presidential candidates' performances seem to have impacted the presidential candidates' places in the polls as well:

Post-Vice-Presidential Debate Presidential Poll, October 3-6, 2012
Romney 38%
Obama 38%
Cain 21%

President Obama has narrowly taken leads in Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Cain is coming in second in Arkansas and is tied with Obama in Georgia. Overall, Romney is leading 334-204 in a hypothetical Electoral College count.

October 23, 2012: The second debate - featuring all three candidates - is on the subject of the economy. President Obama was hammered constantly by Romney and Cain due to the nearly 10.9% unemployment rate.

Who Won the Debate?
Romney 41%
Cain 39%
Obama 14%

President Obama's performance was likened to that of Christie's in the vice-presidential debate. Kieth Olbermann commented that it was "Christie x50."

October 27, 2012: The unemployment rate hits 11%. The Romney campaign now begins a new series of ads: "Unemployment's March to 12%."

"This is the latest piece of evidence we have that the Obama Administration is an utter and complete failure." --- Herman Cain

"If we had leaders who knew what they were doing, then 11% unemployment wouldn't be a problem." --- Mike Huckabee

"The economy is terrible, and our Commander-in-Chief is too arrogant to admit that his policies are not working, and never will work." --- Mitt Romney

"The President and the economy make me sick. I can't take it anymore. We need some change. And I'm being serious. We're all pissed, and we need some change now." --- Chris Christie

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Tiny Nitpick:

Huckabee is actually more Liberal than he appears to be. He is more Liberal then Romney on both tax and immigration policy.

Romney/Crist 2012! (Despite my like of the Cain/Huckabbe ticket)

[feeblepizza]

Tiny Nitpick:

Huckabee is actually more Liberal than he appears to be. He is more Liberal then Romney on both tax and immigration policy.

Romney/Crist 2012! (Despite my like of the Cain/Huckabbe ticket)

I know that Huckabee is much more liberal than Romney. And also, the Republican ticket is Romney/CHRISTIE

[Yelnoc]

This makes no sense.  Cain's support would come almost exclusively from Romney.  If he is polling at 18% Obama should still be in the 40's and Romney suffering in the 30's.  There's no way you can have Cain run without basically handing the race to Obama.

And Obama picking a Republican running mate is enough to make the liberals launch their own challenger (which could validate your poll numbers a bit).  Regardless, Obama picking a republican is about as likely as Romney picking Huckabee.

[feeblepizza]

This makes no sense.  Cain's support would come almost exclusively from Romney.  If he is polling at 18% Obama should still be in the 40's and Romney suffering in the 30's.  There's no way you can have Cain run without basically handing the race to Obama.

And Obama picking a Republican running mate is enough to make the liberals launch their own challenger (which could validate your poll numbers a bit).  Regardless, Obama picking a republican is about as likely as Romney picking Huckabee.

Hagel is a major Obama supporter (and his Defense Secretary ITTL). Also, Romney and Christie are picking up independents who would not otherwise vote for the Tea Party candidate.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

A Republican picking a Democrat and vice-versa is possible. I know that Joe Lieberman was under consideration by John McCain in 2008, and I heard of the possibilities (because of this forum) of Kerry/McCain 2004, and McCain/Clinton 2008. Besides, from what I've hears, Hagel is a moderate on social issues, and I know he's moderate on foreign policy. He's also in Obama's cabinet, so he already has ties to the Obama Administration.

[Niemeyerite]

with cain and huckabee on the ballot vs. romney and christie, obama should be leading even in Utah! this TL isn't realistic, but that's because it's a TL xD. I like it!

[feeblepizza]

November 5, 2012: The last debate is a town hall. There was, of course, no set subject matter, but the vast majority of questions were, of course, on the economy. Most agree that all three candidates did well this time.

Who Won the Debate?
Romney 31%
Cain 30%
Obama 27%

THE FINAL POLLS show that President Obama has caught up to Romney, but barely:

President Obama is now leading in Pennsylvania, closing Romney's lead to 224-314. If he can win swing states such as Michigan and Nevada, than he may have a shot at getting reelected.

November 6, 2012: Welcome to Election Night 2012, where three candidates are fighting for the White House: former Governor Mitt Romney, a Republican from Massachusetts; President Barack Obama, a Democratic from Illinois; and talk radio host Herman Cain, the Tea Party backed candidate from Atlanta, Georgia. The first poll closings are at 7:00. Please stay tuned....

States in red have been won by Barack Obama
States in blue have been won by Mitt Romney
States in yellow have been won by Herman Cain
States in green have closed polls but are too close to call
States in gray have open polls

7:00 PM - It seems as if Mitt's victory won't be as easy as he thought - the only state that we can call with confidence right now is Vermont, which has given 71% of the vote to President Obama this election.

Obama/Hagel (D) - 3
Romney/Christie (R) - 0
Cain/Huckabee (I) - 0

7:30 PM - We have more poll closings at the half hour mark, but still no more projections. Ohio, West Virginia, and North Carolina are close, with Herman Cain at the 10% mark and both Obama and Romney nearly tied in the low 40s. In Kentucky, Indiana, South Carolina, and Virginia, we have the same situation exactly. In Georgia, however, President Obama is at the 25% mark while Romney and Cain battle it out in the 30s.

8:00 PM - With no more poll changes, we are now getting a boatload of projections. All of them are for President Obama. An upset could be likely tonight....

Obama/Hagel (D) - 61
Romney/Christie (R) - 0
Cain/Huckabee (I) - 0

8:21 PM - President Obama has taken Pennsylvania under his belt, and is getting nearer and nearer to 100 Electors, while Romney and Cain still have yet to win a state.

Obama/Hagel (D) - 81
Romney/Christie (R) - 0
Cain/Huckabee (I) - 0

8:30 PM - Arkansas' polls have closed, but we can not make a projection as to who will win that state right now. So far, however, Cain is leading with Romney close behind, as with Georgia - President Obama is barely hitting 25% in Georgia and getting 15% in Arkansas.

8:44 PM - Mitt Romney has picked up one state tonight, and that state is Kentucky. It may be a feeble start, but it's a start nonetheless.

Obama/Hagel (D) - 81
Romney/Christie (R) - 8
Cain/Huckabee (I) - 0

Please comment

[California8429]

Romney can't win without Pennsylvania. And how can the results of Georgia be accurate? 15, 39. 39 still isn't 100 because other candidates wouldn't pick that much up and I assume Cain and Romney aren't both at 39%

[Niemeyerite]

Good!!!!! Congratulations, president Obama =D

[feeblepizza]

Romney can't win without Pennsylvania. And how can the results of Georgia be accurate? 15, 39. 39 still isn't 100 because other candidates wouldn't pick that much up and I assume Cain and Romney aren't both at 39%

I changed the figures. Now Obama is hitting 25%. Assume that the score is 25-36-38 (other candidates are picking up around 1%).

[Niemeyerite]

Romney can't win without Pennsylvania. And how can the results of Georgia be accurate? 15, 39. 39 still isn't 100 because other candidates wouldn't pick that much up and I assume Cain and Romney aren't both at 39%

I changed the figures. Now Obama is hitting 25%. Assume that the score is 25-36-38 (other candidates are picking up around 1%).

I thought this was an update of the TL...

[feeblepizza]

Romney can't win without Pennsylvania. And how can the results of Georgia be accurate? 15, 39. 39 still isn't 100 because other candidates wouldn't pick that much up and I assume Cain and Romney aren't both at 39%

I changed the figures. Now Obama is hitting 25%. Assume that the score is 25-36-38 (other candidates are picking up around 1%).

I thought this was an update of the TL...

Don't worry. I'll put one up soon enough.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

NO!!!!!!!!!!! Obama isn't sposed to win!

[feeblepizza]

9:00 PM - Now we have several more poll closings and some projections from older states. It looks like Romney has gained some Southern states, while President Obama has broken 100 Electoral Votes, with an astonishing 70%+ victory in New York State.

Obama/Hagel (D) - 120
Romney/Christie (R) - 43
Cain/Huckabee (I) - 0

9:14 PM - Alabama, Mississippi, and Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District will all be under the Republican column tonight. Other than that, we have no projections. We can say that Herman Cain is now leading by a small margin in Arkansas, and Romney is leading by a razor thin margin in Georgia. Missouri is having a hard time deciding between the three candidates, with all three in either the high 20s or low to mid 30s.

Obama/Hagel (D) - 120
Romney/Christie (R) - 59
Cain/Huckabee (I) - 0

9:31 PM - We can say with certainty that South Dakota, Kansas, and Texas can all be called for Mitt Romney. We believe that when all votes are counted, South Dakota, Kansas, and Texas will be in the Republican Party's column tonight. This is the first time Mitt Romney has broken 100 Electors tonight.

Obama/Hagel (D) - 120
Romney/Christie (R) - 105
Cain/Huckabee (I) - 0

9:40 PM - Despite the best hopes of the Republicans, the early swing-states of Minnesota and Wisconsin are going into the Obama column tonight.

Obama/Hagel (D) - 140
Romney/Christie (R) - 105
Cain/Huckabee (I) - 0

9:59 PM - We can now project that Louisiana will be voting Republican tonight. Mitt Romney has gained 47% of the vote there; Obama comes in second with 35% of the vote; and Cain is in last with 17% of the vote.

Obama/Hagel (D) - 140
Romney/Christie (R) - 113
Cain/Huckabee (I) - 0

10:00 PM - The only projection that we can solidly make right now is Utah, which will be voting for Mitt Romney.

Obama/Hagel (D) - 140
Romney/Christie (R) - 119
Cain/Huckabee (I) - 0

10:09 PM - The State of Nebraska's two Electoral Votes can now be called for Mitt Romney. Congressional Districts One and Two remain too close to call.

Obama/Hagel (D) - 140
Romney/Christie (R) - 121
Cain/Huckabee (I) - 0

[Niemeyerite]

Cool!!! Cain should carry arkansas, and probably georgia. Obama wins