NJ Gov.: The fix is in for Chris Christie

[Mr.Phips]

What's the likelihood the state legislature (or one chamber) flips to divided or Republican control?

And if that's not likely, what about the chances of a 'coalition' agreement springing up like in the NY-state senate or the WA-state senate? Wasn't the NJ redistricting similar to the WA redistricting?

You have to remember that Christie is popular not because he is a Republican, but because he is stands up to national Republicans.  The Democratic voters that vote for him are not going to vote Republican down allot.

[Mr.Phips]

Actually, I heard the Senate is a possibility. Not a strong possibility but things are apparently breaking the GOP's way in the swing seats. Sweeney supposedly might even go down. Wouldn't that be something?

The only real swing seat held by a Dem is the 1st.  People seem to think that the 2nd should be Republican, but even Corzine tied there in 2009 even as he was getting blown out statewide and had most dem bosses sitting on their hands.

[Mr.Phips]

Republicans won't pick up the State Senate because Chris Christie is uninterested in winning it. Christie's landslide re-election requires the Democratic Party being content to not challenge him, and any grand effort to extend his coattails to the State Legislature puts his relationship with the Democrats in rocky waters. Besides, Christie has enough allies on the Democratic side of the aisle that he doesn't need to win a large number of seats to get work done. Don't kid yourself -- Tom Kean Jr. is on a very tight leash.

And again, Christie's landslide win will be due to the fact that a large amount of Democratic base is voting for him.  Does anybody really think these voters will vote a straight Republican ticket?

[Mr.Phips]

Republicans won't pick up the State Senate because Chris Christie is uninterested in winning it. Christie's landslide re-election requires the Democratic Party being content to not challenge him, and any grand effort to extend his coattails to the State Legislature puts his relationship with the Democrats in rocky waters. Besides, Christie has enough allies on the Democratic side of the aisle that he doesn't need to win a large number of seats to get work done. Don't kid yourself -- Tom Kean Jr. is on a very tight leash.

And again, Christie's landslide win will be due to the fact that a large amount of Democratic base is voting for him.  Does anybody really think these voters will vote a straight Republican ticket?

It's not so much the Democrats you need to worry about -- Christie won't be winning assembly seats in Hudson County like Tom Kean did in 1985. It's the Republicans and independents that you need to worry about. A lot of GOPers vote Democratic in Districts 1 and 2. A lot of independents vote Democratic in 4, 7, 14, and 18. And recent polls say voters are split exactly down the middle on whether they want Democrats in charge of the NJ legislature of if they want Republicans.

Christie/Balles, Christie/Inverso, Christie/Allen, and Christie/Stahl are some pretty solid tickets, all considered.

The second district has a huge Democratic registration advantage and has a good Dem lean to it contrary to what others think here.  Obama won it by about 20 points and even Corzine tied Christie here in 2009. 

Remember that Greenstein solidly picked up the 14th for Democratic in 2010, which was the worst year for Democrats since the 1920's.  Independents were voting two to one Republican. 

And the fourth?  Even Corzine solidly won that district in 2009 and he was winning vitually no independents. 

The 18th is Buono's seat.  That seat isnt going anywhere, especially with her on the ticket. 

Really, the only seat I would really worry about Democrats losing is 1st, which is the only legitimate swing district they hold. 

[Mr.Phips]

First off, trying to view the 2013 New Jersey election through the lens of a national election is a mistake. Historically, New Jersey Republicans have been pretty well insulated from national trends (except maybe 1995) and do well when Democrats are running the show in Washington. And let's be honest, Christie is probably one of the most anti-Washington Republicans in the country right now.

Anyway, back to the districts. District 2, as you said, is more Democratic than baseline. Still, I'm accurate in saying there are a lot of Republicans there who will turn out in droves: This is a Republican County on a local level. It's questionable how strong Democrats are going to be in Atlantic City. This is a district that got hit hard by Sandy.

Republicans picked up District 4 in 2009, the last time Christie was on the ballot. It's very independent heavy. So too is District 14, and while Greenstein is popular, so too was Inverso. Yeah, I admit, it's been a while since Inverso was on the ballot last, and Roma Bank probably doesn't make him more popular. Still, these are just the kind of districts that are going to go nuts over Christie this year. I wouldn't want to be running downballot there as a Democrat this year (or, coincidentally, as a Republican next year).

I don't think the GOP will actually win the 18th, because I don't think a Republican can win anything but a sneak attack there. If Stahl wins, it'll be a surprise to everyone.

If I'm doling out money for the Senate GOP, the bulk goes to win 2. Inverso gets whatever he negotiated when Kean Jr. got him to run in 14. I'd pay for a bunch of polling in District 1, and I'd try to get Christie to visit as much as possible. Ultimately only the Assembly seats there look vulnerable. I'd make an arrangement to have a full-time intern out on District 18, because I think this is the exact kind of area the GOP needs to improve its performance to be more credible statewide in 10 years to combat the inevitable decline elsewhere. Wouldn't hurt getting more people operatives with the territory.

Democrats running the show in Washington?  Last I knew Republicans controlled the house.

I'm also looking at what happened in 2009, when dem turnout was completely in the toilet.  Democrats lost just one seat and even that loss was a fluke.

And these indpendent voters have been voting for Democrats(except for Christie) for years.  They voted by about 20 points for Obama and even solidly for John Kerry in 2004, who had about as a much appeal and charisma as a rotting 2 by 4.