Ontario 2011 (6th October)

[Holmes]

Davenport is a lot closer than I thought it would be, but then again, Liberals doing phenomenal in the 416. Which explains Trinity-Spadina, York South-Weston, and maybe even Parkdale-High Park.

Rob Ford and Tim Hudak scared Toronto voters right back into Liberal arms, while most voters elsewhere in the province shied away from him. Still, it could've been worse for McGuinty outside of the GTA. Maybe next time.

[Holmes]

I think I'm ready to call York South-Weston for Liberals. And Liberals just might eek out Trinity-Spadina and Sudbury, barely.

[Holmes]

NDP pull ahead in Trinity-Spadina. Extremely close still.

Where do you see this? Libs still ahead on Elections Ontario site.

[Holmes]

Maybe it's time for Toronto to get a Liberal mayor, mmk.

[Holmes]

NDP pull ahead in Trinity-Spadina. Extremely close still.

Where do you see this? Libs still ahead on Elections Ontario site.

CBC site. Who also declare Bramalea-Gore-Malton for the NDP.

I thought so, so I went there, thanks. York South-Weston getting really close too. Hoping Sudbury's not out of reach, but with 17 polls left, I dunno...

edit: actually YSW going more towards Liberals, so oh well.

[Holmes]

No, Peel county has never elected an NDPer, at Provincial or Federal level, since 1867. This includes the NDP, CCF, Progressives, etc.

So while it's great that Singh has been elected, and we know that it wasn't Layton coattails, there's still an uphill battle for the NDP in that area. But, now there's a blueprint. I know that Singh worked really hard.

[Holmes]

Liberals were very strong in the GTA. Because of Harper and Ford, of course. It hurt the NDP, but the Conservatives most. They were shut out, but there were some close calls for the NDP in the 416 as well (and a loss in the fertile York South-Weston). Both federally held NDP seats in Scarborough had good showings too, despite everything, so some areas of Scarborough might be becoming receptive to the NDP. Seeing a lot of ridings in Southern Ontario realigning provincially with their federal voting patterns, too.

To say I'm disappointed that the Liberals eeked it out in Sudbury is an understatement. And it's disappointing that the Liberals retained both Thunder Bay seats. But I was pleasantly surprised by the NDP's showing, or the PC's lack of showing, in Sault Ste. Marie.

Well, the NDP knows what it needs to do going forward. There's a lot of fertile ridings waiting to be picked up. Time to gouvern.

Question: When is Ontario getting new riding boundaries? Is it after this year's census?

[Holmes]

Sault Ste. Marie should be purple. CPC and OLP hold it. And Oshawa should be dark blue. Barrie as well.

[Holmes]

I'm back in Northern Ontario. No one here is happy with the results. But that's expected, Timmins-James Bay seems to have the biggest swing against the Liberals. And they only got <12% here? Pathetic.

From glimpsing results, it seems to me like the Libertarians fared better (well, in numbers of 1%+ candidates) than they have for over 20 years--dunno whether it's a "Ron Paul" effect...

I thought you were wrong (I was clicking though the map) until I hit the GTA. Wow! What the hell is going on there?

I'll do some numbers.

Final prediction will be as follows:
Liberal: 48
PC: 41
NDP: 18

Betting is illegal of course, but you have the Tories at 41 and I have them at 24-40. My average is therefore 32.

If we ever meet, and the Tories get over 37 seats, I'd like to buy you a coffee; would you like to return the favour of they get below 36?

BTW, did I win the bet, or did both of us lose?

What kind of coffee do you like?

French Vanilla

You know, we must meet at some point. Perhaps when I'm in Toronto in March?

Let's all meet up!

[Holmes]

I'm back in Northern Ontario. No one here is happy with the results. But that's expected, Timmins-James Bay seems to have the biggest swing against the Liberals. And they only got <12%.

The Liberal and PC results there seem to have flipped. Big swing against them in Sudbury, too, but they just managed to hang on. I was somewhat surprised by the swings in Thunder Bay. The two seats seem very unlike the rest of Northern Ontario.

Hmm. Well, I don't know too much about Thunder Bay, but I do know that, when Bartolucci retires, Liberals might fall to distant second, or even third, like it is federally. If he doesn't retire for the next election, he'll have another battle. As for Timmins-James Bay, Xstrata closing was probably the straw that broke the Liberal camel's back. Liberals ed up in Northern Ontario. The three ridings they held onto were only because of the incumbents, and that's it. They're nearing extinction.

I'm interested to know, and I wonder if I'll ever find out, exactly where the Conservative vote is coming from here. I know Timmins is "trending"(for lack of a better word) Conservative, but I think it's too simple to say the Liberal vote is switching Conservative. I mean, after all, the Liberal candidate in the federal election here was campaigning as the "progressive voice for the north". Silly though, to frame yourself like that against Charlie Angus of all people.

[Holmes]

Now, now. People who live in rural areas aren't like some separate species from people who live in the cities.

[Holmes]

I was under the impression that New Brunswick and Newfoundland and Labrador both have majority PC governments.

[Holmes]

Northern Ontario has a ton of trees, and hardly any Green support. I don't think that's a valid assumption.