Malaysia General Election May 9th 2018

[jaichind]

Called seats so far are BN 3 (2 in Sarawak and 1 in Sabah)  PH 0

[Polkergeist]

Looking through the unofficial results at the myundi link you guys prvoided I get the following seats where the incumbent party is trailing

BN Leading PH Incumbent   

P.068   Beruas
P.132   Port Dickson
P.152   Kluang
   
BN leading GS Incumbent
   
P.101   Hulu Langat

PH Leading BN Incumbent

P.018   Kulim-Bandar Baharu
P.141   Sekijang
P.192   Mas Gading
P.205   Saratok
P.214   Selangau
   
OTH Leading BN Incumbent

P.209   Julau

[jaichind]

BN doing reasonably well in Peninsular Malaysia marginal seats.  To be fair the number of votes in are tiny.

[Oryxslayer]

http://listen.bfm.my/ <- English Radio stream. They are playing music, but are mainly discusssing results.

[Novelty]

Looking through the unofficial results at the myundi link you guys prvoided I get the following seats where the incumbent party is trailing


PH Leading BN Incumbent

P.192   Mas Gading

That's a surprise.  Swing towards PH in rural Sarawak?  This might be bad for BN

[Oryxslayer]

http://live.undi.info/

This site has called a few more seats:

Parit in Perak for BN
Labis and Simpang Reggam this PH in Johor for BN, Batu Pahat for PH
Semporna for WARISAN, Kalabakan for BN in Sabah

deep breath

Mas Gading, Bandar Kuching, Puncak Borneo, Saratok, Selangau for PH and Julau for PH indie,
Santubong, Serian, batong Sadong, Kuala Rajang, Hulu rajang, baram, and Lawas for BN

Their tracker is 11 BN, 7 PH 1 Indie

some of those are gains

[Novelty]

https://election.thestar.com.my

Pages have maps.

[jaichind]

Looking through the unofficial results at the myundi link you guys prvoided I get the following seats where the incumbent party is trailing


PH Leading BN Incumbent

P.192   Mas Gading

That's a surprise.  Swing towards PH in rural Sarawak?  This might be bad for BN

It is.  Luckily for BN the swing is in the Sarawak Christian belt.  The Muslim vote is holding up for BN and that is positive news for BN in  Peninsular Malaysia.

[Polkergeist]

From what I can see overall there is not much change. There is no obvious breakout one way or another.

[Oryxslayer]

My previous statement mapped. Opposition gains in Sarawak.

[Novelty]

http://livem.malaysiakini.com/ge14/en/

7.48pm: (Unofficial) BN has suffered unexpected defeats in Sarawak, losing five parliamentary seats.

BN lost the parliamentary seats of Saratok, Puncak Borneo and Selangau to PKR while Mas Gading fell to DAP.

BN also fails to retain Julau, which it lost to independent candidate Larry Sng.

Harapan did not contest in Julau to make way for the independent candidate.

[jaichind]

BN 14 PH 8 Pro-PH Ind 1

Of course the Pro-PH ind. is the son of a ex-BN MP and I guess can always be bought to join BN.

[jaichind]

Very early looking at vote share from Peninsular Malaysia indicate the PAS vote is structured in a pro-BN way.  Meaning weaker than expected Kedah Kelantan and Terengganu but stronger than expected in the rest of Peninsular Malaysia.  Unless PH over-performs on its vote share. BN should storm back to victory despite its setback in Sarawak.

[Novelty]

From what I can see overall there is not much change. There is no obvious breakout one way or another.

It's all up to the individual seats. Also, all eyes will be on Kedah, Johore and Sabah.

[Novelty]

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[jaichind]

Sarawak most likely end up BN 20 PH 10 pro-PH Ind. 1.  Amazing

[Polkergeist]

Sarawak most likely end up BN 20 PH 10 pro-PH Ind. 1.  Amazing

Well that is a shift to the opposition.. no doubt

[Polkergeist]

In the GS incumbent seats, according to the unofficial results;

GS Ahead
P.021   Kota Bharu (Kelantan)
P.028   Pasir Puteh (Kelantan)


BN ahead
P.101   Hulu Langat (Selangor)

All other GS incumbent seats are yet to report.

[Oryxslayer]

Apparently, Sabah is in danger of falling locally to WARISAN according to rumors at the counts. If so, more fed seats could fall with incoming results.

[jaichind]

A bunch of PH strongholds got called ...

BN 18 PH 22 Pro-PH Ind 1
 

[Oryxslayer]

PH takes the lead in the count. Even if they lose, or if it flips back to BN, this never happened in 2013. The opposition has hope. And some of these wern't strongholds, they were in Johor.

[jaichind]

Apparently, Sabah is in danger of falling locally to WARISAN according to rumors at the counts. If so, more fed seats could fall with incoming results.

Yes.  If Christian Sarawak swung away from BN, then that points to dangers to Sabah where if the Christians their also swing away from BN and  WARISAN also get a Muslim tribal swing away from BN then BN got big trouble.  At least in Sarawak PBB  held the Muslim tribal vote.

[jaichind]

Johor clearly swung toward PH this election.  Not sure if it is enough.  One thing is for sure.  BN's salvation now if Sabah also goes badly from them has to be the how the PAS vote is distributed.

[jaichind]

MIC's President it appears to have lost his seat.  This is the BN Indian party.  Really the Malay branch of India's INC from the 1930s.  Just like MCA is the Malay branch of ROC KMT from the 1930s-1940s.

[Polkergeist]

On the unofficial results I have BN trailing in 4 Sabah seats they hold