Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[MaxQue]

Each commission finalizes its report on the new electoral districts no later than December 21, 2012. The CEO may grant a two-month extension if requested. (section 20).

To come: Ontario, Quebec, BC, Saskatchewan, and New Brunswick. Any bets?

Well, they haven't looked to keen on extension. Maybe so close to the deadline and now the public hearings are done, they can give an extension (for example to complete the translation). If not, the next three days will be busy for reports!

Or some will deposit late, like Quebec last time.

[doktorb]

Not much better, if at all. Seems they've kept the terrible Edmonton Griesbach name. Looks like Edmonton-Strathcona has reverted to its current boundaries. Over all, not that much change from the preliminary map.

"Edmonton Griesbach" sounds like a name of an eminent professor of languages at an otherwise unknown university.

No, it's a Tory.
Mayor of Edmonton 1906-1907, MP for Edmonton West 1917-1921, Senator 1921-1945.
A former Army base in Edmonton.

I was trying to be funny

[Hatman 🍁]

Did anyone see this? http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=on&dir=now/proposals&document=addi&lang=e

Additional changes proposed by the Ontario commission.  This is not their report though, just a few changes to their original proposal.

[MaxQue]

Did anyone see this? http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=on&dir=now/proposals&document=addi&lang=e

Additional changes proposed by the Ontario commission.  This is not their report though, just a few changes to their original proposal.

It was reported by me in early November, and you even commented on it, Earl.
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=145422.msg3511919#msg3511919

[Hatman 🍁]

Did anyone see this? http://www.redecoupage-federal-redistribution.ca/content.asp?section=on&dir=now/proposals&document=addi&lang=e

Additional changes proposed by the Ontario commission.  This is not their report though, just a few changes to their original proposal.

It was reported by me in early November, and you even commented on it, Earl.
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=145422.msg3511919#msg3511919

Ahh, you didn't post a link, and I didn't investigate.

[lilTommy]

Yup saw that... looks like the public feedback must have been very negative around the new Waterdown-Glanbrook wrap-around riding.

Looks like the new amended proposed ridings leave two ridings safe for the NDP (Hamilton East and Hamilton Mountain West) and two become more competitive (Hamilton West-Dundas and Stoney Creek-Hamilton Mountain East)
Niagara Centre looks to be back in the NDP column as well with Thorold and parts of St. Catharines added back in and Fort Erie and Wainfleet removed.

[Wilfred Day]

Yup saw that... looks like the public feedback must have been very negative around the new Waterdown-Glanbrook wrap-around riding.

Looks like the new amended proposed ridings leave two ridings safe for the NDP (Hamilton East and Hamilton Mountain West) and two become more competitive (Hamilton West-Dundas and Stoney Creek-Hamilton Mountain East)

But the public feedback on the revised Hamilton proposal was more negative: almost everyone said their first proposal was better. (But I saw no objection to the revised Niagara proposal.)

[adma]

Niagara Centre looks to be back in the NDP column as well with Thorold and parts of St. Catharines added back in and Fort Erie and Wainfleet removed.

Notionally, yes.  But as we know, the legacy of the Kormos machine can swing virtually anything in its path...

[Wilfred Day]

the legacy of the Kormos machine can swing virtually anything in its path...

The "Kormos machine"? How soon they forget. It was the Mel Swart machine from 1975 to 1988, founder of the dynasty whose machine Kormos inherited and built on. Swart didn't build it overnight either. He became a Thorold councillor as long ago as 1948, becoming Reeve from 1955 to 1965. At the same time he was building the party machine, starting with his federal Welland campaign in a 1950 by-election. It was a pretty good machine by 1967 when he missed by only 250 votes. It was not anyone's property, as demonstrated by the fact that Kormos' successor Cindy Forster previously served as mayor of Welland from 2000 to 2003, and later represented the city on Niagara Regional Council. "Mel and Peter left a huge legacy" she said on her election as MPP.

[Hatman 🍁]

What's surprising is Welland not going NDP federally until very recently.

[MaxQue]

What's surprising is Welland not going NDP federally until very recently.

And before 2006, they never came close of winning and were most often 3rd.

[adma]

Which is part of what I mean by "Kormos machine"; Mel Swart started it, but it didn't really begin to pollinate federally until the Kormos era...

[lilTommy]

Federal and Provincial results were starkly different for the NDP. They seemed to do much better on the provincial level then they ever did federally until 1999, and only last year has the party started to rebuild themselves.

They were the official opposition in 48 and 75, generally winning 25-30 seats; they were almost the government in 43 (4 seats shy of the tories).
Some will argue the the United Farmers government of 1919 was the first NDP-like government.

But yes, the NDP was always a bigger provincial force until the Rae government ended. They won ridings provincially they had never won federally (basically because they used different ridings till 99)...

[Ontarois]

What's surprising is Welland not going NDP federally until very recently.

Mel Swart did his best to get New Democrats elected federally.  The big difference over time was that Mel would win polling divisions in "French town" (Welland east of the train tracks that run between the old and new canals) that went solidly Liberal federally.

When John Maloney took over, the allegiance of Welland and Port Colborne francophones to the Liberals waned.  The NDP did not run any francophone candidates, but neither did the Liberals, represented for a long while by Gilbert Parent en francais (and Gib Parent in English).  When Malcolm Allen won in 2008, the gains on the east side of Welland (and of Port Colborne, although the Francophone community there is clearly smaller) were significant.

Today, Welland east of the old Canal is the heart of NDP strength in the riding.

[MaxQue]

I didn't know there was a Francophone community in Welland. It's quite far of the usual areas where they are present (North and East).

[Wilfred Day]

Which is part of what I mean by "Kormos machine"; Mel Swart started it, but it didn't really begin to pollinate federally until the Kormos era...

Rev. Robert Wright was one of the dynasty's stars, getting 33% in 1968 and 28% in 1980. (Mel became Ontario NDP President in 1974 -76.) Malcolm Allen got less than 33% when he first won in 2008. 

The NDP did not run any francophone candidates

Was Guy Mersereau in 1963 not francophone?

[Hatman 🍁]

I didn't know there was a Francophone community in Welland. It's quite far of the usual areas where they are present (North and East).

There's some odd pockets across the province, like in Penetanguishene and in Essex County (forget where exactly)

[Wilfred Day]

There's some odd pockets across the province, like in Penetanguishene and in Essex County (forget where exactly)

By http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/geo/map-carte/pdf/thematic/LANG/2011-98313-004-035-008-01-eng.pdf, the scattered pockets are in Penetanguishene and the abutting Tiny Township, Welland, and the municipality of Lakeshore in Essex County. But those are just the geographic concentrations. The location of francophone secondary schools tells the story: Windsor (public and catholic), Tecumseh, Pain Court (west of Chatham), Sarnia, London (public and catholic), Owen Sound, Cambridge, Hamilton (public and catholic), Welland (public and catholic), Barrie (public and catholic), Penetanguishene, Brampton, Oakville, Mississauga, Toronto (two public, two catholic), Aurora, Whitby, Trenton, Kingston (public and catholic), and Brockville. (Then of course there are 22 in the Ottawa to Cornwall area, and many in Northern Ontario.)

[Hatman 🍁]

I was thinking it might be Lakeshore. It's quite an out of the way place to have a larger than average percentage of Francophones.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've just looked it up, the French part of Lakeshore is the eastern part of the municipality, specifically the former townships of Tilbury West and Rochester and the community of Belle River. All three areas report having more than 10% of the inhabitants having French as their first language.

[Wilfred Day]

I've just looked it up, the French part of Lakeshore is the eastern part of the municipality, specifically the former townships of Tilbury West and Rochester and the community of Belle River. All three areas report having more than 10% of the inhabitants having French as their first language.

Yes, and there are French-language elementary schools in Stoney Point (143 students of which 35 speak mainly French at home, 108 mainly English), Belle River with 406 students ("Un pourcentage élevé des familles ont au moins un parent francophone" but 60% speak mainly English at home, 40% mainly French) and one in nearby Saint Joachim (southeast of Belle River) with 115 students (75% speak mainly English at home, 25% French). Presumably most of them would, or could, go to the secondary school in Tecumseh, which also takes students from the two elementary schools in Tecumseh that have 305 students (60 speaking mainly French at home, 249 English, and 21 another language) and 397 students (3% speaking mainly French at home, 2% another language, 95% English). Are these really immersion schools for children of parents who were once francophones? But the secondary school has only about 535 students, so most of the students from those five elementary schools choose English secondary schools.

[Ontarois]

I didn't know there was a Francophone community in Welland. It's quite far of the usual areas where they are present (North and East).

French language public schools in Welland (not including French immersion schools)
Ecole secondaire Confederation
Ecole Champlain
Ecole Nouvel Horizon

French language separate schools in Welland (not including French immersion schools)
Ecole secondaire Jean Vanier
Ecole Saint Francois d'Assise
Ecole Sacre Coeur

[Hatman 🍁]

Just looking it up again, all of the eastern half (east of the west branch of the canal) of Welland except one CT has 10%+ Francophones. One CT in the west also is in this boat.

[Holmes]

Why must every French catholic school board have an École Sacré Coeur?

[Wilfred Day]

Why must every French catholic school board have an École Sacré Coeur?

Or in the case of the central-south board, three: in Toronto, Georgetown, and Welland. A Marguerite-Bourgeoys in Markham, Borden and St. Catharines. Two named Sainte-Marie: in Oakville and Simcoe. Two Frère-André: Toronto and Barrie. But not a single Queen Elizabeth, Queen Mary, King George or King Edward.