Redistribution of Federal Electoral Districts 2012

[Wilfred Day]

Reading through the NB report... how many redistributions til they're forced (assuming a stable overall number of seats) to abolish one rural riding and create Moncton West - Riverview and Moncton East - Dieppe? It looks like, though obviously stepping on many people's toes, that would have been the clean and logical thing to do even now, and would probably have happened if Canada used a smaller tolerance.

Riverview is anglophone. Dieppe is francophone. Moncton is split: http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2011/geo/map-carte/pdf/thematic/LANG/2011-98313-004-305-013-01-00-eng.pdf. You will see the francophones are more in the east end of Moncton. The Moncton Census Metropolitan Area, shown in that map, has 138,644 people, 1.85 quotients. Add another 11,590 exurban residents and you have two ridings. There are 9,351 people in and around Sackville who have to be in Moncton East--Dieppe--Sackville. That leaves Shediac and northward to be determined, depending on where the line is drawn in Moncton.

[MaxQue]

Reading through the NB report... how many redistributions til they're forced (assuming a stable overall number of seats) to abolish one rural riding and create Moncton West - Riverview and Moncton East - Dieppe? It looks like, though obviously stepping on many people's toes, that would have been the clean and logical thing to do even now, and would probably have happened if Canada used a smaller tolerance.

As it is, the map looks pretty ugly, but it is better than their initial proposal. I just had a look at their deliberations this morning, and they did indeed make an effort to bring Miramichi under the 25% variance, because they came to the realization that there was in fact nothing special about the riding that would result in it having a population below the 25% variance.

I'm not sure if splitting Moncton would be necessary. Eventually the city will have the same population as the quota (if it doesn't already have that) and at that point it will be one riding in itself while Beausejour takes in both Riverview and Dieppe. Maybe at that point they will extend Miramichi further down the coast to compensate. 

New Brunswick is complicated to redistrict because of language. It's the only bilingual province, so there is French and English areas. And the French minority isn't afraid to sue to make its rights respected (see the 2005 special redistricting), so the commission must proceed with caution.

And yet when the commission in 2003 tried to lump some French areas in Tobique-Mactaquac into Madawaska-Restigouche, there is was a lot of opposition. Someone asked the commission to do it this time, and they said no based on the same reasons (apparently there is harmony between the linguistic groups there, and they are all a bunch of potato farmers).

For interests sake, here is a linguistic map of the province: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/89-642-x/2011005/map-carte/map-carte12-eng.gif (you can see the franco area in the NW crossing into Victoria County)

Well, that area is wierd. Very right-wing and much less insistant on their lingistic rights. Their focus is on money, they remind me of Beauce.

[Hatman 🍁]

Which would explain the real reason they would want to be in a Conservative riding like Tobique-Mactaquac over a swing riding like Madawaska-Restigouche.

[lilTommy]

I think the new Port Moody-Coquitlam looks even harder for Fin Donnelly to retain in then it did with the proposed boundary, now that it includes all of Port Moody, No?
Any timeframe on PQ and ON?

Keep in mind that Port Moody was part of James Moore's riding last time and the NDP made no effort there...historically the NDP has actually done quite well in Port Moody and wins it provincially as well, so i think that Fin Donnelly could probably drive up the NDP vote there to its "natural" level if it became part of his riding.

I think you might mean Coquitlam, not Port Moody. The new riding here is basically Port Moody-Coquitlam and Coquitlam-Mallardville on the provincial level combined. PMC was only recently won by the NDP with Joe Trasolini a former BCL member and had been close to Christy Clark, the NDP had never won this riding or is predecessor Port Moody-Westwood. CM on the other hand is strongly in the NDP camp.

Agreed, Kennedy Stewart will probably move to Burnaby South; unless he wants to take a stab at having the incumbency factor going into a competitive albeit more conservative friendly Burnaby North-Seymour. If the NDPs numbers are high in the province by 2015, might be a good move to have a leg up in a new riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Problem is, I think there is a low ceiling on NDP votes in the north end of Burnaby. It might not be winnable in a straight NDP-Tory race.

[Poirot]

Any timeframe on PQ and ON?

The new deadline is now February 21. I hope they don't take until the last day.

I have seen this in a Hill Times article.
have been granted a two-month extension on the deadline for their reports—both reports are now due by Feb. 21, 2013

http://www.hilltimes.com/news/news/2013/01/28/some-mps-concerned-about-electoral-boundary-commissions%E2%80%99-criteria-says-tory-mp/33478

[Wilfred Day]

The new deadline is now February 21. I hope they don't take until the last day.

I hope the Ontario commissioners take all the time they need. They were given a compressed time to prepare their first proposal. They were very responsive at the hearings I know of, very sincere and dedicated, prepared to make major changes in their first proposal. Adding 15 Ontario ridings is a massive redraw. I'm sure they are trying to get it right.

[Hatman 🍁]

I hope so. They can't be much worse than one of the judges in Saskatchewan. He actually filed a DISSENTING report contrary to the other two judges. Word is he wasn't a very nice guy in the meetings, but the other judges were. The man must be a Tory; apparently he was the President of the Association of Rural Municipalities.

[Poirot]

I said I hope they don't wait until the last day because I thought we would get all reports by Christmas and I'm impatient to see the reports.

I want the commissions to do their jobs and not rush things. I don't think the Quebec commission put enough care on the first draft proposal and that leaves it having to do more work for the report after hearings. I like how Ontario even came back for hearings after some changes to get people's input.

[MaxQue]

I don't think the Quebec commission put enough care on the first draft proposal

They drew some horrors, especially in suburban and rural areas.
At some places, it just looks as if they placed lines at random to get equal population.

[MaxQue]

Parliament began the study of objections of the MPs.

Unlike last time, where it was done by a specific sub-committee of the Procedure Committee, it's the whole Committee which does it, this time.

They already passed 4 reports. Nobody objected in Manitoba, Nova Scotia and PEI, so, it was quite quick to go through.

Newfoundland is done too, there was two objections. First by the two St. John's MPs, over the split the neighbourhoods of The Battery and Signal Hill. This wasn't in the first plan and never talked about at the audience, but the commission did it in their latest map to egalise population after they changed the border with Avalon.

Also, Scott Simms wants to change Bay d’Espoir—Central—Notre Dame in Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame.

Now, they are hearing Alberta. Fort McMurray MP is arguing than Census is wrong, the other Northern MPs complains about the west/east division which was done (they are right, they now have very long and thin ridings where towns in the same areas are in a different riding depending on the side of the highway they are). Wetawiskin MP complains than his rural riding is split into Edmonton and Red Deer urban ridings.

Also, Lethbridge and Medecine Hat MPs complaned too. Some rural areas were moved from Medecine Hat to Bow River, and they aren't happy from it. Mormon Trail was moved into Medecine Hat and they don't want to be with a city, but in a rural riding.

Calgary-Centre MP doesn't want an upper class neighbourhood in her riding, some areas outer neighbourhoods and an industrial park.

Calgary-North-East MP wants to keep some industrial lands in his riding as almost nobody lives there (5 persons, in fact), but his office is there and it would force moving it.

Yellowfield MP also had problems with the North.

So, apparently, Alberta hearings are finished and the report should be adopted this week.

[Wilfred Day]

Someone says we can expect the Ontario and Quebec reports this coming week. Anyone heard anything?

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, Scott Simms wants to change Bay d’Espoir—Central—Notre Dame in Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame.

Probably a better name, but still not perfect.

[Philly D.]

The Quebec and ontario reports have just been tabled in the HoC. They should be on the redistribution site within the hour.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's up!

[Hatman 🍁]

Ontario:

Over all a better map. I like that they've went with the name I liked for the new Ottawa riding: Rideau-Carleton. However the situation in Toronto is much less NDP friendly now that they have gone with a riding for the lakefront condos and put Rosedale in with some NDP territory. Also, I haven't checked the numbers, but it looks like the Ottawa ridings aren't very close in terms on population. I suspect Rideau-Carleton is underpopulated.

[Hatman 🍁]

Quebec: Much better map, although anything is an improvement over their initial proposal. And they ditched the stupid ridings names (after people) in favour of geographical names. Also, they minimized their dumb historical names too, except for a few cases.

[lilTommy]

Quebec: Much better map, although anything is an improvement over their initial proposal. And they ditched the stupid ridings names (after people) in favour of geographical names. Also, they minimized their dumb historical names too, except for a few cases.

Oh God Agreed, the naming convention chosen is a huge improvement. Looks like they went with 18 instead of 19 ridings on the island of Montreal too, saved a rural riding? Can anyone explain to me the new riding Lemoyne? its a very odd shaped thin stretch of a riding... looks like leftovers to me.

University-Rosedale (common! "university"? anything would have been better, Annex-Rosedale would be better). looks like Olivia/Rosario were favoured with the redrawn, i am not pleased with that. If Olivia runs in UR, which looks like she will since i believe her home is there (just made it in actually), and Bob Rae isn't running it will be a battle but i think the NDP has the edge with the Candidate. Its Spadina-Fort York (again, hate the name. Fort York-The Islands or Fort York-St. Lawrence are better names) and Toronto Centre that the NDP need to worry about, especially SFY. The condo hoods can easily swing Lib with a good candidate, and with Justin as LPC; its going to be a dog fight... TC is easier since it now has all the NDP polls (i think) won in 2011. 

*Scarborough is an interesting redraw with Scar-Wexford and Scarb Centre splitting the old SC and taking the southern end of ScAgincourt. Wexford looks more Liberal now, Sc Centre still a three way race but some good tory polls now from guildwood are here.  Rathika has an easier time now, she can run in Scar Rouge without much loss i think.
*Oshawa has been given a much better draw for the NDP the the proposal had, with a riding focused only on the city, and its south side this should be winnable for them.
*Peterborough got an odd shift North, anything south of the city, Douro is now in Northumberland Pine Ridge (Pine Ridge?) Looks like Dean Del Mastro (unfortunately) is safe unless the NDP can get a strong candidate (lost Tory polls to gain tory polls)
*Belleville was oddly split in half, for a city its size seems odd, but looks like most of the urban city is in Bay of Quinte, the rest is in Hastings.
*Hamilton, looks like the commission just threw their additional changes out the window.   

[Hatman 🍁]

Ugh. I'm looking at the Ottawa numbers, and the three safest Tory seats are also the three least populated ridings in the city (Nepean, Rideau-Carleton and Kanata-Mississippi Mills).  Rideau-Carleton, perhaps the most Tory of the three has less than 90,000 people!


Ottawa South, a safe Liberal seat will be the largest in the city at over 120,000 people.

[DL]

Ugh. I'm looking at the Ottawa numbers, and the three safest Tory seats are also the three least populated ridings in the city (Nepean, Rideau-Carleton and Kanata-Mississippi Mills).  Rideau-Carleton, perhaps the most Tory of the three has less than 90,000 people!


Ottawa South, a safe Liberal seat will be the largest in the city at over 120,000 people.

Isn't the theory that suburban places like those three ridings are rapidly growing so you purposely make them underpopulated now with the understanding that they are growing as we speak?

[MaxQue]

My riding in Abitibi returns to its previous name and Outremont is very safe for Mulcair now, since they expand it into Plateau instead of the other side and removed all the part on the other side of Mount Royal.

Globally, Quebec map is ''Let's screw it, we keep current map and adjust it''.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ugh. I'm looking at the Ottawa numbers, and the three safest Tory seats are also the three least populated ridings in the city (Nepean, Rideau-Carleton and Kanata-Mississippi Mills).  Rideau-Carleton, perhaps the most Tory of the three has less than 90,000 people!


Ottawa South, a safe Liberal seat will be the largest in the city at over 120,000 people.

Isn't the theory that suburban places like those three ridings are rapidly growing so you purposely make them underpopulated now with the understanding that they are growing as we speak?

That's the theory. But then the commission also makes ridings that are losing people (Northern Ontario) really small. So that means ridings (like Ottawa South) with relatively stable populations are hugely over populated.

Now Rideau-Carleton could experience much growth, but I'm not sure it will get more than 15,000 over the next ten years. Maybe. But that it would only put it at the provincial average. Ideally, it should be at the provincial average half way between redistributions.

[MaxQue]

Ugh. I'm looking at the Ottawa numbers, and the three safest Tory seats are also the three least populated ridings in the city (Nepean, Rideau-Carleton and Kanata-Mississippi Mills).  Rideau-Carleton, perhaps the most Tory of the three has less than 90,000 people!


Ottawa South, a safe Liberal seat will be the largest in the city at over 120,000 people.

Isn't the theory that suburban places like those three ridings are rapidly growing so you purposely make them underpopulated now with the understanding that they are growing as we speak?

That's the theory. But then the commission also makes ridings that are losing people (Northern Ontario) really small. So that means ridings (like Ottawa South) with relatively stable populations are hugely over populated.

Now Rideau-Carleton could experience much growth, but I'm not sure it will get more than 15,000 over the next ten years. Maybe. But that it would only put it at the provincial average. Ideally, it should be at the provincial average half way between redistributions.

If you read the report, they mainly focused on putting communities together, as participants didn't care about the equalization and the population numbers.

They also accused Carol Hugues and Charlie Angus of having an innapropriate behaviour during the process.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ugh. I'm looking at the Ottawa numbers, and the three safest Tory seats are also the three least populated ridings in the city (Nepean, Rideau-Carleton and Kanata-Mississippi Mills).  Rideau-Carleton, perhaps the most Tory of the three has less than 90,000 people!


Ottawa South, a safe Liberal seat will be the largest in the city at over 120,000 people.

Isn't the theory that suburban places like those three ridings are rapidly growing so you purposely make them underpopulated now with the understanding that they are growing as we speak?

That's the theory. But then the commission also makes ridings that are losing people (Northern Ontario) really small. So that means ridings (like Ottawa South) with relatively stable populations are hugely over populated.

Now Rideau-Carleton could experience much growth, but I'm not sure it will get more than 15,000 over the next ten years. Maybe. But that it would only put it at the provincial average. Ideally, it should be at the provincial average half way between redistributions.

If you read the report, they mainly focused on putting communities together, as participants didn't care about the equalization and the population numbers.

They also accused Carol Hugues and Charlie Angus of having an innapropriate behaviour during the process.

I saw that...

I should've took part, as someone needed to stand up for population equality!

We will be moving to Ottawa South in a month, and our votes are going to be worth 2/3 of a vote of someone in Stittsville or Riverside South

[Smid]

Ugh. I'm looking at the Ottawa numbers, and the three safest Tory seats are also the three least populated ridings in the city (Nepean, Rideau-Carleton and Kanata-Mississippi Mills).  Rideau-Carleton, perhaps the most Tory of the three has less than 90,000 people!


Ottawa South, a safe Liberal seat will be the largest in the city at over 120,000 people.

Isn't the theory that suburban places like those three ridings are rapidly growing so you purposely make them underpopulated now with the understanding that they are growing as we speak?

That's the theory. But then the commission also makes ridings that are losing people (Northern Ontario) really small. So that means ridings (like Ottawa South) with relatively stable populations are hugely over populated.

Now Rideau-Carleton could experience much growth, but I'm not sure it will get more than 15,000 over the next ten years. Maybe. But that it would only put it at the provincial average. Ideally, it should be at the provincial average half way between redistributions.

If you read the report, they mainly focused on putting communities together, as participants didn't care about the equalization and the population numbers.

They also accused Carol Hugues and Charlie Angus of having an innapropriate behaviour during the process.

I saw that...

I should've took part, as someone needed to stand up for population equality!

We will be moving to Ottawa South in a month, and our votes are going to be worth 2/3 of a vote of someone in Stittsville or Riverside South

And only 25% of a vote of someone in Charlottetown!