UK General Discussion: 2019 and onwards, The End of May

[Silent Hunter]

Likely some indicative votes on Wednesday ahead of the EU Council meeting. May herself might end up having to back a second referendum to get an extension.

If she doesn't get one then, revoking A50 would need to be considered in the week we'd have left.

[Silent Hunter]

I think the EU claimed that they would only grant extensions in the case of a 2nd referendum or a general election.

At this point, it's all up to the EU.

Various people have said various things, mainly that there needs to be a clear purpose for an extension. Some of them don't actually get to make any decision, but their views would carry strong weight. Donald Tusk for example.

[Silent Hunter]

I can't say they'd be too happy about it, but I don't think they'd want to basically kick the UK out at this point. Not when the possibility of them staying in is increasing.

In any rate, if MV3 doesn't work, May is planning indicative votes for the beginning of April.

[Silent Hunter]

Those of us who remember life before Brexit now that a 4% lead is no guarantee of an election victory.

[Silent Hunter]

That's a bald statement of fact. Remember the 2015 election. After that, no Labour leader can confidently order new furniture for the Downing Street flat ahead of election night.

Brexit didn't change the fact that polls can be wrong.

[Silent Hunter]

You posted a picture of Maggie Thatcher crying at a 4% Labour lead in a hypothetical election that hasn't yet been called.

[Silent Hunter]

The five frontbenchers who resigned over the second referendum vote suggests that is relative.

In any event, my personal fear - and i've had it since Corbyn became leader - is that if he became PM, he'd be utterly dire at the job, Labour would be back in opposition within five years and Tory austerity would be back with a vengenance. It will take at least ten years to fix the damage done by this government for one thing, so it can't really be a one term government.

[Silent Hunter]

Limehouse Declaration to SDP took two months, BTW.

[Silent Hunter]

Another note - the change of date legislation would just be a Statutory Instrument instead of a full Act of Parliament. The former only requires a single vote each in the Commons and the Lords.

[Silent Hunter]

If the deal got rejected a third time, then I don't see a short extension happening - or even a No Deal. It would be a long one.

[Silent Hunter]

The only way that could be got round would be for a prorogation of Parliament that terminates the current session (which has been going since the last election) and starts a new one.

That means another Queen's Speech and vote on it. Also any legislation currently ongoing would fall and have to be done again in the new session.

Another issue is the need to get any extension through as a Statutory Instrument.

[Silent Hunter]

It's moments like this when you remember that a new Speaker is ceremonially "dragged" to the chair because some of the past ones lost their heads. Literally.

[Silent Hunter]

It's the convention in the de facto parliamentary rulebook called 'Erskine May'. It's not available online - although they are planning to put it on the Parliament website soon.

[Silent Hunter]

In terms of ways to get around it: the government could prorogue parliament - end the session early to start another - which has been done by governments in the past to get around rules limitations

Apparently that would require a state opening of Parliament and a Queen's Speech. Would be absolutely extraordinary for the govt to attempt.

Not to mention logistically non-feasible before the 29th.

[Silent Hunter]

The House would need a majority for that of course.

[Silent Hunter]

They should demand either a general or second referendum.

They may well get that. Does the EU want to de facto kick the UK out of the EU at this point?

[Silent Hunter]

Latest bit of obscure procedure that we're learning: Standing Order 24. There's a motion for an emergency debate on Brexit this afternoon and Labour are backing it. Could lead to Commons taking control of the whole process.

[Silent Hunter]

The EU might say "long delay or nothing". Problem May has always had that a majority of her party really don't want any delay past 29 March and the thought of a delay until 2020 or longer is anathema to them.

Labour are supporting a delay until 30 June as well.

In any event, whatever happens, there has to be a Commons debate and vote on the thing on Monday, with the possibility of amending the motion.

[Silent Hunter]

To wit, if there's a majority for the deal, there is a majority to change the rules.

The next Commons vote on the whole matter is on Monday.

[Silent Hunter]

I assume there is no majority for revoking Article 50 ?

Nobody can't know for sure what someone votes for or not with the back against a wall.

The EU effectively says that they must either accept the Brexit deal or face a no-deal Brexit. The Speaker of the House of Commons says that this deal was already rejected and that you can't vote on the same deal twice. So, the fate of the United Kingdom depends entirely on Bercow's whims. Question is what happens if he continues to block another vote on the deal? Does May offer the EU a second referendum and will the EU accept such a proposal?

Didn't they already vote 2 times on the same deal, or was it "changed" in between votes?

It was changed with the additional documents related to the backstop.

[Silent Hunter]

And they're making that conditional on the WA passing. It's not going to pass, certainly not in that form.

[Silent Hunter]

Withdrawal Agreement. Including the backstop a lot of people have been complaining about.

[Silent Hunter]

That sound you hear is a collective sigh of relief from many Brits.

[Silent Hunter]

They're carrying on discussing this over dinner. This could take a while.

[Silent Hunter]

Well, that gives us a bit more time for sanity to prevail.