Ontario General Election Prediction thread

[PeteB]

As it stands now, I am only predicting this with several TCTC ridings:

416
PC - 4
Lib - 7 (yes, it's high according to public perception, but I think that is their rock bottom in TO)
NDP - 3
TCTC -11

905
PC - 21
Lib - 3
NDP - 13
TCTC -6

East
PC - 11
Lib - 3
NDP - 1
TCTC -4

North
PC - 3
Lib - 1
NDP - 8
TCTC -2

SW
PC - 11
Lib - 0
NDP - 9
TCTC -4

So here is the total:
PC - 50
Lib - 14
NDP - 34
TCTC -26

Tight, but the smart money would still be on a PC government.  Over 2/3 of the TCTC seats have a PC candidate in the top two.

[PeteB]

14 Liberal seats before too close to calls?! That's a ballsy prediction. Let's see how it works out.

Perhaps, but it all hinges on them holding the old downtown TO. If they can't win at least 7 of these 9 seats - St. Paul's, DVW, DVE, University Rosedale, Eglinton-Lawrence, Spadina-Ft. York, Willowdale, Toronto Centre and Scarborough Guildwood - we will probably finish with a huge PC majority. For the rest, I am actually being conservative - I am counting Liberals holding Ottawa Vanier, Ottawa South and Ottawa Centre in the east, reelecting either Michael Gravelle or Bill Mauro in Thunder Bay and holding three 905 seats (Del Duca in Vaughan and 2 Mississauga seats - Malton and Lakeshore - yes, I am expecting Sousa to survive )!

[PeteB]

Ok, I'll play

Ottawa and Eastern/Central Ontario:
Ottawa West-Nepean- PC
......
Southwest/Midwest and Nigeria region:
Burlington- PC
Oakville- PC
St. Catharines.......

Abuja or Lagos?

[PeteB]

For the record, going into the debate, I see this spread:

NDP - 35%
PC- 34%
Liberal - 21%
Green - 4%

Seats:
NDP - 49
PC - 61
Liberal - 13
Green -1

Result : who the h..l knows

[PeteB]

So, after the debate, I am ready to predict this (I just used the OPs breakdown):

Popular vote: 
Liberals: 23%
PC: 34%
NDP:35%
Greens: 3%
Other/Independents:5%

Seats:
Liberals:19 seats
PC:56 seats
NDP:48 seats
Greens: 1 seat
Other/Independents:0

Battle Ground riding predictions (I have tried to use past results and media speculation as a guide for which riding to choose. Feel free to add additional Ridings to this list that were left off.

Ottawa and Eastern/Central Ontario:
Ottawa West-Nepean- PC
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell- Liberal
Kingston and the Islands- NDP
Peterborough- PC

905 Belt
Ajax-PC
Oshawa-NDP
Vaughan-Woodbridge- Liberal
King-Vaughan- PC
Brampton-East- NDP
Brampton-North- NDP
Mississauga-lake shore- Liberal
Mississauga-Streetsville- Liberal

GTA:
Scarborough Centre-PC
Scarborough Agincourt-PC
Scarborough Southwest- NDP
Eglinton-Lawrence- Liberal
Willowdale- PC
York Centre- PC
Beaches-East York- NDP
Davenport- NDP
Toronto-centre - Liberal
University-Rosedale- Liberal
Etobicoke North- PC
Etobicoke Lakeshore- Liberal
Etobicoke Center- PC
York South Weston- NDP
Humber River Black Creek- NDP

Southwest/Midwest and Niagara region:
Burlington- PC
Oakville- PC
St Catherine’s-Liberal
Brantford-Brant-NDP
Guelph-Green
Waterloo-NDP
London North-Centre- NDP

Northern Ontario:
Sudbury- NDP
Sault Ste Marie- PC

[PeteB]

That, along with PeteB's analysis is pulled straight from the ass.

Huh?   What analysis are you referring to, and why the denigrating language?

[PeteB]

Here is my final prediction - I will go out on a limb and predict a PC minority, with exactly half the seats in parliament!

Popular Vote
PC - 35%
NDP - 34%
Liberal - 22%
Green - 4%

Seats
PC- 62 seats
NDP - 47 seats
Liberal - 14 seats
Green - 1 seat

INDIVIDUAL RIDINGS

National Capital Region

Carleton - PC
Kanata-Carleton - PC
Nepean - PC
Orleans - PC
Ottawa Centre - Liberal
Ottawa South - Liberal
Ottawa-Vanier - Liberal
Ottawa West-Nepean - PC

Eastern Ontario

Bay of Quinte - PC
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell - PC
Hastings-Lennox and Addington - PC
Kingston and the Islands - NDP
Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston - PC
Leeds-Grenville - PC
Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke - PC
Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry - PC

Central Ontario/Cottage Country/Kawarthas

Barrie-Innisfil - PC
Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte - PC
Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock - PC
Northumberland-Peterborough South - PC
Parry Sound-Muskoka - PC
Peterborough-Kawartha - PC
Simcoe-Grey - PC
Simcoe North - PC

City of Toronto

Beaches-East York - NDP
Davenport - NDP
Don Valley East - Liberal
Don Valley North - PC
Don Valley West - Liberal
Eglinton-Lawrence - Liberal
Etobicoke Centre - PC
Etobicoke-Lakeshore - PC
Etobicoke North - PC
Humber River-Black Creek -NDP
Parkdale-High Park - NDP
Scarborough-Agincourt - PC
Scarborough Centre - PC
Scarborough-Guildwood - Liberal
Scarborough North - PC
Scarborough-Rouge Park - NDP
Scarborough-Southwest - NDP
Spadina-Fort York - NDP
St. Paul's - Liberal
Toronto Centre - Liberal
Toronto-Danforth - NDP
University-Rosedale - Liberal
Willowdale - PC
York Centre - PC
York South-Weston - NDP

905 Belt

Ajax - PC
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill - PC
Brampton Centre - NDP
Brampton East - NDP
Brampton North - NDP
Brampton South - NDP
Brampton West - NDP
Burlington - PC
Durham - PC
King-Vaughan - PC
Markham-Stouffville - PC
Markham-Thornhill - PC
Markham-Unionville - PC
Milton - PC
Mississauga Centre - Liberal
Mississauga East-Cooksville - Liberal
Mississauga-Erin Mills - PC
Mississauga-Lakeshore - PC
Mississauga-Malton - NDP
Mississauga-Streetsville - PC
Newmarket-Aurora - PC
Oakville - PC
Oakville North-Burlington - PC
Oshawa - NDP
Pickering-Uxbridge - PC
Richmond Hill - PC
Thornhill - PC
Vaughan-Woodbridge - Liberal
Whitby - PC
York-Simcoe - PC

Hamilton-Niagara

Flamborough-Glanbrook - PC
Hamilton Centre - NDP
Hamilton East-Stoney Creek - NDP
Hamilton Mountain - NDP
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas - NDP
Niagara Centre - NDP
Niagara Falls - NDP
Niagara West - PC
St. Catharines - NDP

Southwestern Ontario

Brantford-Brant - NDP
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound - PC
Cambridge - NDP
Chatham Kent Leamington - NDP
Dufferin-Caledon - PC
Elgin-Middlesex-London - PC
Essex - NDP
Guelph - Green
Haldimand-Norfolk - PC
Huron-Bruce - PC
Kitchener Centre - NDP
Kitchener-Conestoga - NDP
Kitchener South-Hespeler - NDP
Lambton-Kent-Middlesex - PC
London-Fanshawe - NDP
London North Centre - NDP
London West - NDP
Oxford - PC
Perth-Wellington - PC
Sarnia-Lambton - NDP
Waterloo - NDP
Wellington-Halton Hills - PC
Windsor-Tecumseh - NDP
Windsor West - NDP

Northern Ontario

Algoma-Manitoulin - NDP
Kenora - NDP
Nickel Belt - NDP
Nipissing - PC
Sault Ste. Marie - PC
Sudbury - NDP
Thunder Bay-Atikokan - NDP
Thunder Bay-Superior North - Liberal
Timiskaming-Cochrane - NDP
Timmins - NDP
Kiiwetinoog - NDP
Mushkegowuk-James Bay - NDP

[PeteB]

So here goes:
.......
Southwestern Ontario

Brantford-Brant - NDP
Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound - PC
Cambridge - NDP
Dufferin-Caledon - PC
Elgin-Middlesex-London - PC
Essex - NDP
Guelph - Green
.......

No big deal, but I think you are missing Chatham Kent Leamington. 

[PeteB]

Well, I was well off, but I was expecting a better result from the NDP in the SW and North, and for a much better Liberal result overall.

Riding-wise, I was way off on thoughts that people like Del Duca and Naqvi can withstand the wave, and that NDP will hold on to more of the SW.  On the positive side, I correctly predicted some seats, such as Liberal wins in TBSN, Ottawa South and Scarborough Guildwood and PC wins in SSM.

All, in all not an unexpected result and certainly statistically the most probable one.