TX-SEN 2020 Megathread: Early Voting

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is why Hegar jumped in, due to fact, Castro may not go for it

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Cornyn has NEVER lost an election at all since 1984: Primary, Runoff & General Elections.

Didn't we learn in 2018, statewide Dems are competitive in TX than they use to be. The Senate stayed GOP, plus Abbott's coattails saved Cruz, from Beto

Neither did Dean Heller until Wacky Jacky took him down

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I get that it's an uphill battle, but Castro is really selfish. This is a horrible cycle for the Democrats in terms of recruitment.

Castro is upset with his brother's chances in the Democratic primary, Joaquin is gonna stay in the House where he is a safer bet.

We have a recruitment in MJ Hegar.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The reason Beto lost was because he failed to increase Hispanic turnout to the same level as he did among other voters. That is why Castro was the best candidate.

Assuming Castro would've been able to replicate Beto's performance in every other demographic.

Yep, that’s a big if which is part of the reason I think Hegar is likely better than Castro.

WHy would Hegar replicate it?

The only way Heger wins, if its a 2012, wave, and Joe Biden can replicate it, but it will be tough

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great news! ENDORSED, Chris Bell can beat Cornyn

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Chris Bell would be a better candidate

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If I were Dems, I would invest in SC, Harrison is a good candidate . Also KS and AK, than TX

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope the GOP realizes that they cant take red states for granted, they lost KY and LA and are on the wrong side of impeachment.  Yes, they successful defended red states in 2018, but that was a midterm and impeachment wasnt a factor. There are 12 vulnerable R v 1 Vulnerable D. It's too early for a 2008 nightmare scenario,  but who would of even thought that it could happen again Dems building a filibuster proof majority.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think SN2903 and FrenchRepublican forget what is the difference between winning now and in Nov and Trump is corrupt. A wave doesn't happen til the end of an election cycle

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope Royce White wins, he can do a better job in defeating Cornyn than Charles Booker could do against McGrath.

TX and SC are much more racially diverse than KY.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think once Hegar wins the primary, she'll probably see an influx of cash. I think her story is interesting, and she could give Cornyn a real run for his money, considering Biden is basically tied up in TX right now.

I hope Royce West does

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I feel like once Hegar is more known (esp with her bio), she'll be more of a threat, since Cornyn doesn't seem to be particularly liked.

Also interested to see how much Hegar raises now that she's the nominee

Hegar has been losing in every poll to Cornyn. Safe R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Castro should have really run for this seat instead of Hegar, he would certainly made TX more winnable for Ds in a Covid 19 environment,  Cornyn is too strong for Hegar to beat him. But, Castro is more his equal

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1290645098527633414?s=20

It really appears that Hegar can do this. She just needs a lot of help.

You mean Castro, Beto has bowed never to run a campaign ever again, since Fox news made a mockery of him

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I just find it funny how 2020s Texas election maps are starting to resemble 1970s Texas election maps but with the parties flipped. The minor party wins the big urban counties plus the rural counties in a specific region of the state (the Panhandle for 1970s Republicans; South Texas for 2020s Democrats).

Yes, Ds can are winning Congressional districts but Fed elections in Senate and Prez are still R with Hegar

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds are focused only AZ, CO, GA, ME and NC for 52/48 Senate, all the other races are R leaning

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

HEGAR is too liberal to win this seat, move on to MT

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I'm not sure it will, although I don't think it has a huge amount of downside all by itself. There are ways in which certain kinds of political "moderation" can and do help, especially when one's own party doesn't have an occupant in the White House, but saying, "Take my word for it - I voted for a guy some of you used to like in a secret ballot years ago," doesn't seem guaranteed to be especially helpful. It's fundamentally different from Jim Justice endorsing Trump in 2016. Even in TX, "Romney Republicans" weren't really a thing; although there are people who voted for Romney, the GOP nominees for whom there are lingering affection (in certain constituencies) are HW, W and Reagan.

It'd be one thing if this was a response to oppo research; she could burnish her credentials by being proud of what they were attacking her for, but that's not it. It just seems like (probably) wasted airtime to me.

This is TX... it will certainly help her.

Tester said D's are putting all their money into MT, KS, IA and SC.and ME. I doubt even Cunningham wins in this environment due to the dcandal

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

HEGAR is done, too many polls have come out showing she is six points down, it's not a race within the margin of error, D's best chances are in IA, GA, SC, KS, MT

She isn't well known like Bollier, Harrison or Bullock to overcome the R tilt of the state

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She has been behind the whole campaign by 6 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race leans R but not safe R it is one of those states that an upset can happen like AK, KS, MT and SC.  But IA and GAR are tilting D for sure