I agree that WV is gone unless Manchin runs, and MO is probably Tilt or Lean R at this point. I'd say MT is Lean D, though, and NC is a toss-up.
Why would Missouri be lean R? The GOP's top candidate, Tom Schweich, just killed himself and the other top candidate, Catherine Hanaway, has been pretty thoroughly tied to several vicious ads against him. Also, the state Republican Party Chair, John Hancock, has been quoted by multiple GOP donors and operatives as making deragatory anti-Semetic comments about Tom Schweich. The only poll I have seen has Koster leading Hanaway by 6 points(granted, lots of undecideds), but there is no way she is gaining any popularity after Tom Schweich's death.