Australia General Discussion

[morgieb]

Is everyone looking foward to the Lib wipeout in Victoria?

I am.

Unconvinced. There's still nearly two years to go.

[morgieb]

I would've thought Downer was yesterday's news. Obviously not.

[morgieb]

Yeah, guns are one of the few issues where Howard was right on IMO.

[morgieb]

So September 25. Surprised she's calling it this early, a nine month campaign, yay.....

[morgieb]

Isn't Roxon a member of the Right?

[morgieb]

That was a bigger-than-expected victory for the Liberals in Western Australia -does anyone think they can replicate it in South Australian elections next year?  

Probably, though IIRC they aren't as on the nose there as they were in NSW & Queensland.

I fear for the GE. Might even be worse than 75/77, let alone 96.

[morgieb]

End of Juliar?

[morgieb]

Not surprised this is happening, but still it's pretty huge.

[morgieb]

It has to be a spill now, no?

[morgieb]

Craig Emerson, Anthony Albanese and Stephen Smith in Gillard's office apparently.

[morgieb]

Julia has emerged flanked by Wayne Swan, Jenny Macklin, Tanya Plibersek and Craig Emerson for Question Time.

[morgieb]

Oh Australia.

Wasn't it earlier in the day when they got rid of Rudd? I think I remember it being before midnight UK time...

Spill was called that day when Rudd was knifed 10pm AEST.

[morgieb]

STFU Tone.

[morgieb]

Bookies now strongly favor Rudd over Gillard on odds of winning the leadership ballot (might be different by the time you read this, since events are moving fast):

http://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics?LeftNav

What were the odds like in 2012?

[morgieb]

Interesting. Sounds like it might be as tight as Latham/Beazley.

[morgieb]

I'm pretty sure last time pundits thought Gillard would survive. So this is interesting. I'll say Rudd as I reckon that undecideds will probably go for the challenger.

But don't take my word for it.

[morgieb]

Well what happens next?

I don't think this is the end of it. I still reckon that this might just be the beginning.

[morgieb]

Gillard blasts a certain foghorn and gets Hanson's visa policy endorsement, plus a potential Hanson candidacy, as a result. Let's see her explain this one when immigration comes up in the GE debates.

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/visa-campaign-exposes-hypocrisy-in-pms-office-20130317-2g8m0.html

Won't change a lot of votes. I don't see people switching to Abbott because they dislike Julia on immigration.

[morgieb]

Yes. If this election was actually fought on the economy, Liberals would have Hockey or Turnbull as their leader.

[morgieb]

Yes. If this election was actually fought on the economy, Liberals would have Hockey or Turnbull as their leader.

If you should give a top three on the issues that are going to decide the electio, what would they be?

It's very hard to say. What I can say are the issues that are hurting Labor:

- poor leadership. Swan works hard but he isn't a natural politician, and Gillard seems to lack an emotional touch. If Rudd were still there Labor would be in a better state.
- certain elements of the media are somewhat misogynist.
- Labor struggles to govern. They're perceived as being in the pocket of the Greens and independents.
- Carbon tax and its scare campaign. Most people are still somewhat worried about their hip pocket
- Lingering scare of corruption on their heads, from the Thomson, Slipper and Obeid scandals.
- Rudd is still there, the media is always talking about him returning and it's somewhat destabilising to the party.

Ironically on an issues + economy based election Labor would be comfortable favourites IMO.

[morgieb]

Swan if he keeps the seat.

Otherwise? Smith makes sense.

[morgieb]

I don't care who wins the election, if Sophie Mirabella lost, I'd be happy forever.

No chance.

[morgieb]

Polling apparently showing not much of a bump for team Liberal. Is this normal?

[morgieb]

LNP trying to privatise HECS.

WTF?

[morgieb]

I'll say Liberals 57/43. It's surprising Collier held on to the district for so long, so I can't see him returning while O'Farrell's still reasonably popular.