German Elections & Politics

[President Johnson]

Great news that Kauder has been defeated. The establishment parties need a fresh wind and new faces in this age and Kauder represented the status quo. It should be noted that Kauder already received several nay-votes the last time despite having no challenger.

How does Brinkhaus differ from Kauder?

Probably not too much on the issues, more in leadership style. Brinkhaus wants the caucus to be a little more independent-minded rather than just be in Merkel's bag. He didn't ran against her, just a different new style.

[President Johnson]

Probably not too much on the issues, more in leadership style. Brinkhaus wants the caucus to be a little more independent-minded rather than just be in Merkel's bag. He didn't ran against her, just a different new style.

How do you translate Fraktionsvorsitzender into English? I wasn't quite sure.

Parliamentary group leader.

I was too much into the American term of parlamentary group. This is a bit similar to foreign minister and secretary of state (though their roles are not 100% identical).

[President Johnson]

New Bayern state election (Oct. 14) poll by INSA for the "Bild":

34% CSU (-14%)
17% Greens (+8%)
14% AfD (+14%)
11% SPD (-10%)
10% FW (+1%)
  6% FDP (+3%)
  4% Left (+2%)
  4% Others (-4%)

Worst results ever for the CSU and the SPD in any Bavaria polling ...

This is brutal. I wonder how deep the CSU has to sink that Markus Söder can't stay on. If they really end up with 34%, I don't see him surviving as MP. Ilse Aigner may replace him in such a scenario.

Some folks raised the option of a "all but CSU+AfD" coaltion with a green MP. That would be fun, but I doubt it happens.

[President Johnson]

A study on populism has just been pubished. About a third (30.4%) of Germans are generally populists, while 36% are in part.





Intersting is this graph: Percentage of voters who said they would never consider voting for this party. Interestingly, the SPD has the biggest potential:



Tagesschau

We're gonna need a bigger Bundestag ... 900 seats

This is totally nuts. Yes, we need a cap at 598 or 630 seats. The ideal solution would be to get rid the of the AfD and Left. We have too many parties. I want back to the Bonner Republik.

[President Johnson]

Number of constituencies has been reduced.

I wait parliament with 19 parties and about 5500 MPs.

Actually, if there were 19 parties in the Bundestag, there wouldn't probably be any overhang seats at all.

If one party gets everywhere slightly more votes than the rest of parties (and 300 direct seats) rest of parties were compensated with 300 seats for each party.

That would be possible but almost improbable.
If there were 19 parties in the Bundestag, each would have received ~5,2% of the vote and ~15 direct seats.

LOL, think of that: The largest party, at 5.4%, gets the chancellor.

[President Johnson]

The CSU hits another record low, just like the SPD and surprisingly even the AfD (which already polled at 14-15%):



State election is in 1 week.

This is brutal. The CSU will get shreddered on October 14 while the Greens sadly absorb the left-wing support at the expense of the Social Democrats. The big question is what kind of a coalition would be formed under such a result? If the CSU drops to 35% or lower, I have difficulty to imagine Markus Söder can stay in office. I think a CSU-Greens coalition with Ilse Aigner as MP is possible.

[President Johnson]

This is brutal. The CSU will get shreddered on October 14 while the Greens sadly absorb the left-wing support at the expense of the Social Democrats. The big question is what kind of a coalition would be formed under such a result? If the CSU drops to 35% or lower, I have difficulty to imagine Markus Söder can stay in office. I think a CSU-Greens coalition with Ilse Aigner as MP is possible.

I still think they are going form a CSU-FW-FDP coalition (as long as the Lindner Party won't puss out again.) But regarding you gubernatorial prediction, I agree with you: Aigner will succeed Söder.
Remember, the Free Voters politicians are still way more favored than the Green politicians by the Bavarian electorate.


By the way, am I the only one who observes striking parallels between recent Texan and Bavarian politics?

Aren't the Free Voters defected CSU members? I don't think the CSU really wants such a coalition, but they will do everything to stay in power with the fewest possible concessions. An all but CSU/AfD coalition of the Greens, SPD, Free Voters and FDP would be interesting. I don't see it happening though.

[President Johnson]

I think this will be the first election where even a Grand Coalition is not enough for a majority ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saxony-Anhalt_state_election,_2016

Ah .. forgot about that one.  Yes, no grand coalition majority is much more likely to be in the East given the relative strength of Left and AfD there ...

Same is true here in Baden-Württemberg. In the 2016 state election, CDU and SPD lost a combined 22 points compared to 2011. The state has de facto a grand coalition anyway, with the Greens and CDU in government.

[President Johnson]

Terrible numbers. I hate the fact that we become a multi-party system similar to the Netherlands or Israel. This is leads to more instability. We need to adopt a majority votings system similar to the US or UK.

[President Johnson]

My prediction for Bavaria:

CSU: 34.5%
Greens: 17.8%
SPD: 10.8%
AfD: 10.5%
Free Voters: 10.2%
FDP: 6.5%

----

The Left: 2.8%


Turnout: 71.5%

[President Johnson]

Apparently the exit polls show that the pre election polling was quite on point.

Any word on SPD’s performance?

It's apparently bad. But I expected that

Lol Is it, like, behind AfD bad or behind FW bad?
[/quote]

Doesn't really matter. Anything that is near half of 2013, which was already not great, is a major disaster. If we're talking about single digits, oh my godness. That would be more than just a disaster.

[President Johnson]

Doesn't really matter. Anything that is near half of 2013, which was already not great, is a major disaster. If we're talking about single digits, oh my godness. That would be more than just a disaster.

Almost as if entering that grand coalition was a bad idea. Who would've thunk.

I was among the third of the SPD members who voted against. Don't blame me.

I voted in favor in 2013, though.

[President Johnson]

Any explanation for the strong Green surge? They probably took a lot of support from the FDP and SPD, but why exactly are they the ones surging so much?

The Greens surge because they are the ultimate opposition to the AfD. They're essentially for open borders on immigration and pro-EU (but against the dead trade deal with the US). The current Dieselgate scandal also helps the Greens, like Fukoshima did in 2011. Additionally, they have rebranded and renewed themselfes, both with personell and on the issues (moderation on econmic issues in particular; our Minister-President Winfried Kretschmann, for example, is essentially closer to the CDU on these issues than to the SPD).

The FDP does well because they are extremely good with online advertising or advertising in general. Their leader Christian Lindner is also a good speaker, a fresh face and smart guy. I like him as well. Their program itsself hasn't that much changed, though their communication focus is different. For example, they talk a lot about education for a while now. The FDP is also a proponent of a tougher immigration policy and a good alternative for all those Merkel critics, who generally favor the European Union and think the AfD is too far right.

Any reports on turnout?

It was 54% at 2 p.m. local time. That's pretty strong.

[President Johnson]

First exit poll:

[President Johnson]

While the results for the CSU is bad, the SPD on the other hand ... LOL.

-23% for the so-called "Grand" Coalition in Berlin. Nice job. Well done.

Same was in Baden-Württemberg in 2016.

But a disaster the SPD is in FIFTH place.

I hope CSU+Free Voters won't have majority.

[President Johnson]

If the FDP fails with the 5%, the CSU can choose any partner they want ...

The ARD said that it's likely their numbers are going up a little. So, I think they'll be in.

[President Johnson]

I think it's evident now that SPD will follow other social democratic parties in Europe and become a minor party in most states and at the federal level. I'd be surprised if we get to 15% in the next federal election.

[President Johnson]

I think it's evident now that SPD will follow other social democratic parties in Europe and become a minor party in most states and at the federal level. I'd be surprised if we get to 15% in the next federal election.

I think it can still rebound. A party that's been around for so long as one of the big two won't fall that quickly.

Of course, but our personell isn't smart enough. This plus structural problems make me not very optimistic.

[President Johnson]

I think it's evident now that SPD will follow other social democratic parties in Europe and become a minor party in most states and at the federal level. I'd be surprised if we get to 15% in the next federal election.

I think it can still rebound. A party that's been around for so long as one of the big two won't fall that quickly.

Of course, but our personell isn't smart enough. This plus structural problems make me not very optimistic.

Could you see yourself breaking with the party in one election or elections?

Probably not unless we have a hard leftward shift as Labor in the UK.

If something like En Marche, a social liberal pro-EU party, would emerge, I may consider switching parties (would have if I was French). The FDP is a bit too economically liberal/libertarian for my taste.

[President Johnson]

Seehofer now speaking. He didn't mention resigning at all.

csu-fw-fdp is probably new coalition. spd is so dead.

CSU-FW has currently a narrow majority. I think that will happen.

[President Johnson]

Blue collar workers:

That SPD figure says everything you need to know. Brutal.

It's the same problem that the Parti Socialiste and the Labour Party and to some extent even the Democrats have to face...

Many, I believe, feel abandoned since party elites seemed to care more about transgender toilets, gendered texts (in German), gay rights and (mass) immigration. Some of these issues like gay rights are important, but a too stark focus on them isn't a winning strategy. Of course, there are other factors such as the financial crisis and its aftermath, automation and jobs shipment overseas, problems resulting from globalism etc. There is not "the answer" to this problem. It's very complex.

One of the SPD's main problems is that voters don't see what the party is actually standing for. There is no core issue that reaches the hearts and minds, and especially the hearts, of people in addition to management mistakes in the making for decades.

[President Johnson]

Bad result for the CSU, obviously, but at least better than expected. Söder will definitely remain Minister President. The Seehofer-Merkel fight hurt them a lot, losing voters to AfD, Greens and FW. They're currently at 80 seats, which is surprisingly low since there are 91 districts and I don't see how 11 of them are won by another party.
I hope that the Greens are riding on a wave similar to 2011. The fundamentals haven't really shifted in their favour and i could see them declining as soon as the government stops messing up everything, whenever that is. Of course, the media hype and the environmentalism among Bavarians helps them a lot.
AfD has underperformed significantly. I think many potential voters preferred CSU or FW, which shows that you can keep that party small, if you don't consider 20% of the people Nazis.
The SPD has become a joke, criticizing the failed Jamaica negotiations and the CDU-CSU fights for their bad result, among other things.

A new government must be formed within the next 4 weeks. CSU-FW is the most likely option. While it would be good for Bavaria, the Freien Wähler would be a loss for the opposition. Hubert Aiwanger has always been a champion of the people and the only serious opposition to the CSU. I fear that they will suffer the typical junior partner fate and lose heavily in the next election.

I heard this as well. What happens if this isn't successful? New elections?

[President Johnson]

Calling it now: A CSU/FW coalition will be formed.

[President Johnson]

Why are FW so strong in Bavaria?  Is it related to Bavarian regionalism ?

Regionalism and good work on the local level by their mayors etc. of course plays a role here. And they are seen as CSU-light and not as conservative. Besides, they have a popular leader since 12 years, Hubert Aiwanger, who has the Bavarian beer tent mentality and charisma that is needed for a good election result there:

Especially regionalism, I'd say. The Free Voters also exist in Baden-Württemberg, but only locally. They don't run in state elections, but do very well at the municipal level. In several towns and cities, they're stronger than the CDU.

[President Johnson]

Furthermore, the SPD treacherously betrayed the blue-collar workers with the Blair-like "reforms".

Small defense of Blair (!) - he never did anything as blatantly economically right-wing Agenda 2010 (although he tried).

The should have implemented a minimum wage at the time, but the unions and Greens were opposed to it. The large part of the Agenda 2010 reforms were necessary and are a key factor to our economic strenght. Some corrections here and there are needed or were already made, but overall the Agenda has been a success for the country.