Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

"The Barack Barage" is a nice allusion to the first world war as now i think about it there are plenty of similarities, a massive bombardment (Obama's media buy) against a rock solid defensive position (Clinton massive organisational and demographic edge in PA)... wouldnt be surprised if the whole thing panned out the same way again.

You mean that when Obama's troops go over the top on the first day they will discover, to their horror, that not only are the Clinton defenses basically undamaged, but that the bombardment hasn't even broken the barbed wire?

Casualities on both sides would be extremely high.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Senator Bob Casey is endorsing Obama this morning.

Interesting. When certain... events... of sixteen years ago are considered it's not really surprising though. But interesting all the same. Will also be interesting to see if this reduces the margins in certain parts of the state.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

lol@some of those figures Alcoun posted. People are such dirty liers when it comes to exit polls.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Black: 92 - 8 Obama
65 or older voters - 61-38 Hillary
White men: 55-45 Hillary

Does not look good for Obama.

Interesting to see that he won the black vote by as big a margin as he did in MS... if that holds up.

Nah, what we really want regarding blacks is turnout not how those that voted voted.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Black: 92 - 8 Obama
65 or older voters - 61-38 Hillary
White men: 55-45 Hillary

For comparison, these numbers in Ohio were:

Black: 87-13 Obama
65 or older voters: 72-26 Clinton
White men: 58-39 Clinton

So, if these numbers are right, it's not bad news for Obama.  Of course, that's a big "if."

What were the early exit figures for those demos in Ohio [kvestyon myrk]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just under half of Pennsylvania Democratic voters have a college degree,

lol, yeah right.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No. Really. Now That Is A Surprise. I Wonder Why That Might Be.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That sounds like awfully bad news for Obama...

How so?  It doesn't sound especially worse than Ohio, and Ohio was hardly a mega-landslide.

Well, first off I didn't expect Clinton to do much better than in Ohio, so I'd consider a result similar to Ohio bad news for Obama in this context.

But if I read it right (which I well may not have done) there was record turnout from old voters, white catholics and women and low turnout of blacks? That sounds pretty bad for Obama to me. But you're more educated than me on all these subgroups so if you say it adds up to the same as Ohio, I'll believe you.

The real question is, once again, whether everything is as it seems or whether it isn't.  I can't tell you that right now.

Would opium help ? 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...yes but what is black turnout like...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ouch!

1/3 of Obama voters would vote for McCain or stay home
Exactly 1/2 of Clinton voters would

Today's winner: Yet to be determined
Today's loser: The Democratic Party

[Filuwaúrdjan]

WAS industrial.  There's a few steel jobs left, but nothing significant.  Pittsburgh is now fairly high-tech, but it's still bleeding jobs (though the metropolitan area is pretty static, IIRC).

The term "post industrial" fits the Pittsburgh area quite well. Of course on one level it's still an industrial city, just not an extremely important manufacturing centre anymore.

I should have put was, I know it isn't that industrial now, but for some reason I didn't put it down. Where are the more major steel/manufacturing jobs at in PN now? I am pretty sure Erie has some, but other than that...

Go to the thread that is called "Random Maps" and the answer shall be found there.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The suburbs having high turnout could be good news for Obama, but I doubt those numbers are right.

There's suburbs and suburbs isn't there. High turnout in the Pittsburgh suburbs (for example) would not be good for him.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The suburbs having high turnout could be good news for Obama, but I doubt those numbers are right.

There's suburbs and suburbs isn't there. High turnout in the Pittsburgh suburbs (for example) would not be good for him.

Northern suburbs, I would agree.  Southern, richer suburbs, I would have to disagree.

I was thinking more in terms of "suburb" being the non-urban-core part of a metropolitan area (which is almost certainly what is meant in the exit poll).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It will be interesting to see how close the final results are to these early [actual] exit poll figures. I think a bit of sleep would be nice though. Nos da.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Re; regional oddness... take a look at the Random Maps thread. For there thee shall find maps show % Democrat by county and CD. Data a little old, but the basic pattern probably won't have shifted much, even with the new registrations. This, comrades, is of course not an open primary.

Nos da again!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, I'm almost certain that the exit poll is wrong, because it doesn't seem internally consistent. Whether it means Obama or Clinton does better I don't know though.

Good catch there

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Clinton is winning Greene County by 50 point!  PA-12.

Fayette County is even worse.  Al will be interested.

Yep

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obama's lead in Dauphin is actually increasing.

A lot of idiots there near the capital.

Racist comment.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Wow... you guys are in victim mode hard core.

You know why Obama is ahead in Dauphin right? If you're saying it's because there's a lot of idiots and thus the two are connected...

Civil Servants? More of them there than blacks as it happens.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wow... CNN is a little out of touch there.  Lawrence and Beaver County are "rural"?

lolz

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The results really are fascinating. And some of the spin in this thread was quite amusing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There are some CD numbers here: http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/18018274.html

But be warned! They seem to have stopped bothering to update the CD totals at some point and the delagate figures seem to be frequently wrong or just not there at all...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Could someone post a list of how many delegates (in total) there are for each district, please [qm]

[Filuwaúrdjan]

    *  3 delegates from CD 9
    * 4 delegates from CDs 5, 10, 16, 17, 19
    * 5 delegates from CDs 3, 4, 11, 12, 15, 18
    * 6 delegates from CD 6
    * 7 delegates from CDs 1, 7, 8, 13, 14
    * 9 delegates from CD 2

From Dave.

So delegates not yet worked out by the philly.com website (or others using the same thing or something) ...

1: 1
2: 0
3: 1
4: 1
5: 2
6: 6
7: 7
8: 1
9: 1
10: 2
11: 2
12: 2
13: 2
14: 0
15: 5
16: 1
17: 0
18: 1
19: 0

Apologies for errors