NDP Leadership Convention 2017

[Jeppe]

It's too bad that Ruth Ellen Brosseau decided to not run, she has a lot of potential.

[Jeppe]

It's too bad that Ruth Ellen Brosseau decided to not run, she has a lot of potential.

Her time will come.

I just hope she doesn't lose her seat in 2019, those Quebec voters are quite fickle...

If I recall correctly, she was the only NDP MP to increase their vote share in the last election, so that gives me a bit of hope though.

[Jeppe]

It's too bad that Ruth Ellen Brosseau decided to not run, she has a lot of potential.

Her time will come.

I just hope she doesn't lose her seat in 2019, those Quebec voters are quite fickle...

If I recall correctly, she was the only NDP MP to increase their vote share in the last election, so that gives me a bit of hope though.

Guy Caron did as well, but he's totally unknown.

I met both Guy Caron and Peter Julian at the same time while they were quasi-campaigning for the leadership, and I can't remember a darn thing about Caron besides that he had a goofy sounding French accent (granted, I'm a Western Canadian so all French accents sound goofy).

[Jeppe]

I see Guy Caron increasing his vote by about 0.1%, and Dussault losing his vote share by 6%. Brosseau increased here's by 3%, which seems like the most material gain, considering the party's overall support in Quebec dropped by like 20%.

[Jeppe]

I'd sorta like to see a "path to a majority" map for all 4 candidates. Like seeing which ridings Singh would likely win compared to Angus and etc if the NDP formed a majority government under them.

[Jeppe]

he NDP has countless safe seats.

Um, which ones would that be exactly? Maybe Vancouver East...

I would fully concur but not sure if Jenny Kwan wants to step down.  That being said if the BC government falls before the next federal election, which could happen, then that might be enough to get her to vacate her seat as the chances of her being in government federally are slim to none whereas at least in BC there is a reasonable chance of the NDP winning provincially.

I think Jenny Kwan would rather enjoy the much higher paycheque and prestige being an MP offers. She also has the seat for as long as she wants, which could reasonably be decades. Melanie Mark, Kwan's successor, also isn't going anywhere either, besides maybe the Premier's office one day.

I could see some of the Windsor MP's vacating a seat for Singh, and him winning, but none of them  seem old enough to want to retire.

[Jeppe]

He seems most likely to get knocked off first (Caron), since he doesn't have as much of a fervent base as the others.

[Jeppe]

Caron and Ashton's support of Bill 62 is disgusting. If either of them win the election, I'm not sure I can continue to support the NDP. I found Mulcair's unwavering support of the niqab even when it was a losing political issue in Quebec admirable.

I don't want to be in a party that would be fine with a province actively going after a religious and ethnic minority. It's a shame, because I really thought Niki Ashton was more principled than that. Before the whole bill 62 debacle, my ballot was the following.

1. Singh
2. Ashton
3. Angus
4. Caron

Now, it's just Singh and then Angus. If either Caron or Ashton wins (especially Caron, who's been most supportive of the bill), then I'll have to reconsider my allegiance to the party. At least Trudeau's always been opposed to Quebec's increasingly zealous racism masked as "secularism".

[Jeppe]

Ashton is unquestionably the weakest potential leader. Voters would go running to to the Liberals.

This post is gonna look crazy when Niki Ashton randomly wins the leadership race and - even more oddly - the next general election and henceforth places a ban on white people wearing dreadlocks.

America elected Trump, you never know.

[Jeppe]

It seems to me the progressive view is removing religion from public affairs, be free of code of conducts dictated by religion.

Le Devoir is reporting different NDP reactions to proposed bill 62 and Singh's willingness to challende to court. MP Hélène Laverdière who is supporting Singh is comfortable with his position. MP Alexandre Boulerice finds Singh's position too extreme in defense of individual rights. He says his position is more balanced between individual rights and defense of some collective rights and some social norms. Reaction from already critical of Singh ex-MPs: Pierre Dionne Labelle: says it's going more and more difficult to win seats with his position. Labelle finds bill 62 timid and they can't be against something 80% of the ppulation agrees with. Alain Giguère thinks the bill doesn't go far enough and doesn't target all religious symbols.

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/506693/la-laicite-s-invite-au-npd

So a diversity of opinions on this topic.  

Then why aren't Quebeckers clamoring to have the Catholic cross removed from the Speaker's throne? It's xenophobia and religious intolerance fueling Bill 62.

If Quebec wants to target religious and ethnic minorities, then screw their votes, I'd rather be in a party that doesn't target minorities. I fully support Singh's position on the issue and I hope the courts strike down bill 62 as the gross violation of human rights it actually is.

I don't want the party to pander to xenophobes and racists for votes, that's the Conservative party's agenda, not ours. I hope the rest of my party is principled enough to take the same stand.

[Jeppe]

Quebec's share of members is pitiful. Caron is almost certain to finish dead last, with his poor fundraising and lack of Quebec members.

My predictions of how the provinces are going to vote

BC
1. Singh
2. Angus
3. Ashton
4. Caron

Alberta
1. Angus
2. Singh
3. Ashton
4. Caron

Saskatchewan
1. Angus
2. Ashton
3. Singh
4. Caron

Manitoba
1. Ashton
2. Angus
3. Singh
4. Caron

Ontario
1. Singh
2. Angus
3. Ashton
4. Caron

Quebec
1. Caron
2. Angus
3. Singh
4. Ashton

Maritimes
1. Angus
2. Ashton
3. Caron
4. Singh

[Jeppe]

Singh claims 47k+ new members.

More than the other candidates combined, who would've pulled in 36,000 altogether.

[Jeppe]

Most telling part of that article is how Niki's campaign is suddenly praising the Singh campaign, makes it sound like her team is expecting him to win.

[Jeppe]

What are your predictions for the first ballot?

Mine is

1. Singh
2. Angus
3. Ashton
4. Caron

[Jeppe]

Has any Alberta MLA made an endorsement yet?

[Jeppe]

Important Singh announcement tomorrow. Horgan or Julian endorsement? Pretty sure Singh's not dropping out.

Machinists union endorses Singh.

I don't think Horgan would endorse, since he's the sitting premier, same with Notley. I'm leaning towards Peter Julian endorsing him, but I'm not too sure. Weren't there rumours about Julian was endorsing Singh when he dropped out? I certainly remember reading about that, although nothing came to fruition.

[Jeppe]

Has any Alberta MLA made an endorsement yet?

Not that I'm aware of.

Eric Grenier's compilation of endorsements only showed one from Alberta, and that was former Alberta NDP Leader and MLA Ray Martin endorsing Charlie Angus.

Probably Notley issuing a gag order on her caucus then. The pipeline issue could cause some image issues if a bunch of NDP MLA's were photographed together with a federal leader that's anti-pipeline.

[Jeppe]

Singh takes a slim lead in Mainstreet's newest poll. For reference, he was last place in a poll conducted by the same company last month.

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/09/11/singh-takes-slim-lead-over-angus-mainstreet-ndp-leadership-poll/

[Jeppe]

Full breakdowns

Singh (27.3%), Angus (25%), Not Sure (25%), Ashton (13%), Caron (9.8%)

Decided & Leaning
Singh (34.9%), Angus (33.1%), Ashton (18.5%), Caron (13.5%)

Age
18-34: Singh (61.5%), Ashton (14.9%), Angus (13.60%), Caron (9.9%)
35-49: Singh (62.2%), Angus (14.9%), Ashton (14.3%), Caron (8.6%)
50-64: Singh (41.8%), Angus (25.6%), Ashton (19.8%), Caron (12.9%)
65+: Angus (41.9%), Singh (22.6%), Ashton (20%), Caron (15.4%)

Regional breakdowns
BC: Singh (43.7%), Angus (25.8%), Ashton (16.6%), Caron (13.9%)
AB: Singh (43.4%), Angus (33.8%), Ashton (13.1%), Caron (9.8%)
SK: Angus (45.6%), Ashton (28.6%), Singh (15.3%), Caron (10.6%)
MB: Ashton (29.6%), Singh (29.1%), Angus (24.5%), Caron (16.8%)
ON: Singh (45.1%), Angus (32.5%), Ashton (11.8%), Caron (10.6%)
QC: Caron (30.6%), Ashton (26.1%), Singh (23.5%), Angus (19.5%)
Atlantic: Singh (30.3%), Angus (29.3%), Caron (21.7%), Ashton (18.7%)


Gender preferences
Angus: Male (31%), Female (37%)
Caron: Male (15%), Female (13%)
Singh: Male (36%), Female (30%)
Ashton: Male (18%), Female (20%)


Second choice preferences
Angus (25.3%), Ashton (23.3%), Caron (20.3%), Singh (10.8%)

[Jeppe]

Singh is supposed to make a "big announcement" tomorrow.  May be an Ed Broadbent endorsement?

My initial thought was Olivia Chow, but the announcement is in Ottawa, so I'm not sure.

[Jeppe]

Singh expanding his lead in the new Mainstreet poll.

https://ipolitics.ca/2017/09/28/singh-leading-ndp-race-overall-including-quebec-mainstreet-poll/

[Jeppe]

Brosseau was the first Quebec NDP MP to be declared re-elected by CBC in 2015, and she was the only one to increase her vote percentage (besides Guy Caron and his paltry 0.13% increase).

Brosseau would probably win even as an independent, she got a lot of sympathy and respect from her constituents for learning French and becoming a good representative, especially after being mocked relentlessly back in 2011.