Bush up 47-40 in latest Fox News Opinion Dynamics Poll

[ATFFL]

Just saw the report on the channel, looking for the update on the website.

[ATFFL]

Consider the source!

Why would an otherwise seemingly intelligent person post such a mind numbingly stupid comment?

[ATFFL]

I only glanced the poll, so I did not get the full details.  I am fairly certain that the breakdown was

Bush 47
Kerry 40
Nader 3
Undecided 10

Don't hold me to that though.

[ATFFL]

Whats the % undecided etc? Hang on a minute... I'm commenting on a national poll... sh*t... breaking me own rules... I'll go now...

Come on in... National polls are fun...

What was the % of undecided then?

Look up.  

Or here.

Bush 47
Kerry 40
Nader 3
Undecided 10

Not 100% certain on Nader and undecided.


EDIT:  They just ran it, I was right.  Numbers are accurate.

[ATFFL]

I hate posting right after myself, but here is the pdf on the Fox poll.

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/062404_poll.pdf

Their story on it:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,123679,00.html

Edit:  THey have some state polling data in there I will pull out :

FLorida:

Bush: 48
Kerry: 38
Nader: 3
Undecided: 10

Michigan:

Bush: 42
Kerry: 40
Nader: 5
Undecided: 12

Ohio:

Bush: 45
Kerry: 41
Nader: 4
Undecided: 9

Pennsylvania:

Bush: 46
Kerry: 41
Nader: 3
Undecided: 9

These were 4 seperate polls in those states.

[ATFFL]

This is 5 different polls.  The main one is where the blue states come from.  AN error in there woudl not effect the 4 state polls, unless there was a systemic problem.

The polls do also support a number of recent polls too, Survey USA in FL, the Harris and Tipp nationals, and carry the trend for MI, PA and OH.  

It is likely the method is overpolling Bush a bit, but not by a whole lot.

[ATFFL]

Well there seem to be no internals anywhere in the lengthy file, except a brief paragraph indicating a sample of 900 RV and and the MoE.

Hiding internals is a disturbing trend.  

Then again, times are better now than they were ever before.  We now get confidence reports with polls, something that was unheard of before.  Hopefully, in a few years, putting ll the relevant internals up with your poll will be a standard practice.

[ATFFL]

This is 5 different polls.  The main one is where the blue states come from.  AN error in there woudl not effect the 4 state polls, unless there was a systemic problem.

The polls do also support a number of recent polls too, Survey USA in FL, the Harris and Tipp nationals, and carry the trend for MI, PA and OH.  

It is likely the method is overpolling Bush a bit, but not by a whole lot.

Harris poll was over a week ago.  Since then ALL the other polls have showed it close the ABC Poll had its issues the other direction.

7 of the 8 previous PA polls showed Kerry ahead exception Rasmussen by 1 9 of the last 10 MI polls including 5 in a row have showed Kerry ahead in MI.  Ohio polls have gone back & forth the entire way.  ALL FL polls have been close, Survey USA poll that showed Bush up 7 was shown to be flawed with an overampling of Reps  (the poll had something like Reps identity +7 in its sample, when the state is actually Dems +2)

So you are telling me to ignore a poll that is a week old in the national and pay attention to several month old polls on the state level?  See the contradiction?

ALso, since Harris has been a TIPP/IBD poll that had Bush up.

The Survey USA poll used self identification, they pointed this out and said it may be due to the Reagan funeral that they were skewed toward Bush.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

Look there and tell me where the national trend lines are.

[ATFFL]

A few things.  First, the Republicans have had a better registration effort in FL the past 4 years.

Second, this is self identification.  You can have 100% ID themselves as republican and not be wrong, if that is what they all say.   During the Reagan funeral a huge swing to the Republicans seems about right.  They did the right thing by pointing out that this had occured.

Finally, on all the polls being all over the place, ain't it fun?  

[ATFFL]

That proves that they knew what the result was going to be and that the whole "election" was a fraud.

Brit Hume needs to get his smug face off the airwaves.

Right, because the vast right wing conspiracy decided the best thing for them would be to lose the popular vote and win on a tight recount in Florida.  Yeah, that was the plan.

Or how about the time Fox found out about Saddam Hussein's plans to kill his 2 son-in-laws that had defected to Jordan and did not tell anyone so they could keep their Baghdad bureau open.

Wait, that was CNN, America's most trusted news network.  My bad.

[ATFFL]

Nope.  I don't.  The election was fixed.  Everyone knows that in Texas, a Republican couldn't possibly win a statewide election unless the election was fixed.

I guarantee that ABC was in on it.  That closet conservative Peter Jennings was no doubt the ring leader.

I thought James Carville was the closet Conveervative...?

Did I miss the last meeting of the vast right wing conspiricy?

e-mail me the minutes ... ok ...?

I'll have the UFO drop it off for you in a few hours, if you can wait that long.

[ATFFL]

Nope.  I don't.  The election was fixed.  Everyone knows that in Texas, a Republican couldn't possibly win a statewide election unless the election was fixed.

I guarantee that ABC was in on it.  That closet conservative Peter Jennings was no doubt the ring leader.

I thought James Carville was the closet Conveervative...?

Did I miss the last meeting of the vast right wing conspiricy?

e-mail me the minutes ... ok ...?

I'll have the UFO drop it off for you in a few hours, if you can wait that long.

I am actually in a hurry...

If I take off my tin foil hat can you use the UFO to beam it directly into my brain using the pentagon's new mind control beam?

I used the time machine.  Its in your mailbox as of 4 hours ago.