milhouse24
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,331
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« on: October 13, 2012, 11:42:41 AM » |
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Aggregating polls is wacky because some polls just aren't reliable. I also think Obama's poll numbers are skewed because of the "Hollywood media bump" which enhances his public popularity image among "soft/unreliable younger voters" who enthusiastically support Obama to pollsters, but are too fickle to actually vote on election day. Its this "Hollywood echo chamber" that represents "pop culture" more than the "actual voting population."
I think the "Hollywood media bump" give Obama at least a 1-2% bump in the polls.
At least with Romney's poll numbers, it represents a more stable and reliable voting population.
I also don't trust the Political Gambling markets. They are most lagging indicators because betters will go where the "safe money is" and follow the crowds, rather than taking risks with changing factors. Its also very easy to manipulate with rumors and gossip. But basically the gambling markets are a reaction to news; but also a reaction to a market reaction. If more gamblers move on a position, then the crowd follows even if stock market reality does not resemble reality. Just like the actual stock market, investors will gamble based on emotional market fluctuations.
I agree that actual polls are sometimes reflective of enthusiastic Republicans or enthusiastic Democrats. But that would mean that poll readers should understand that the poll is not just showing "likely voters" but the general momentum and enthusiasm of that polling population. If Democrats are depressed and not answering polls, then that could indicate that some Democrats have also decided not to vote at all because they are expecting to lose.
Some swing voters are "Frontrunners" who basically follow the Yankees, Lebron James, and the Dallas Cowboys. Its not really about economic numbers or social issues, these swing voters turnout because they want to be part of a winning ticket or a historical moment. So, in that situation, momentum in the polls is far more important to "Frontrunning voters" than the issues.
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