Ealing Southall and Sedgefield by-elections thread

[Verily]

Interesting but unsurprising. Sedgefield is a pretty typical lower middle class seat with very few wealthy voters. Ealing Southall is extremely wealthy on one end and poor on the other with a broad spectrum in between. It reminds me of my city.

[Democratic Hawk]

The following post appeared on Tom Watson's blog earlier today:

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I wonder what it could be?

Dave

Tony Lit defects to... well, anyone. That would be both surprising and completely expected.

If 'Tory' Lit wins it's by no means inconceivable that he would defect to ............ erm .......me thinks..... Labour because on new boundaries my money is on it returning to safe Labour status at the next general. It's safe Labour, as of 2005, because the Conservatives and Lib Dems more or less cancel each other out in the eastern wards. Of course, owt could happen in this by-election

I don't think there's an awful lot of substance to Lit, politically

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Email from Lord Rennard to LibDem activists that's been going all round teh interwebs:

<sup>“As the campaigns move to the crucial closing stages, it is clear that the Conservatives are in trouble and Labour are in danger.

We have made a very big effort, so thank you to everyone who has already been, sent a donation or done telephoning.

Finishing strongly in Sedgefield
In Sedgefield, we are becoming stronger challengers every day. Greg and his team have been fighting a fantastic campaign. We need as much help as possible today - and of course from very early tomorrow. It is really worth helping if you can get there.

In Ealing Southall, the Tory campaign has backfired spectacularly. They have been hurt by the revelation that the Conservative candidate helped raise funds for Labour just before they appointed hm.

We have a very real chance of electing Nigel Bakhai tomorrow if enough Liberal Democrat supporters turn up to help our campaign during today and of course from VERY early tomorrow.

I have been speaking to Willie Rennie and Sarah Teather this morning and they both agree that this has the feeling of eve of poll in their by-election campaigns !

Will there be a recount in Ealing Southall?
The result really is on a knife-edge.”</sup>


Make of that what thou will and so on.

[afleitch]

Make of that what thou will and so on.

I'm tempted to copy it into a Word file, print it and then scrunch it up. But I wouldn't want to waste the ink

[Serenity Now]

Here's something that someone I know might want to get his teeth into

Ealing, Southall (All figures accurate to the year 2000)
Core Poor (people who are income poor, materially deprived and subjectively poor) 12.6%
Bradline Poor (people living below a relative poverty line, and as such excluded from participating in the norms of society) 31.0%
Neither Wealthy nor Poor: 39.2%
Asset Wealthy: (estimated using the relationship between housing wealth and the contemporary Inheritance Tax threshold) 29.8%
Exclusive Wealthy: (people with sufficient wealth to exclude themselves from the norms of society) 8.2%

Sedgefield
Core Poor (people who are income poor, materially deprived and subjectively poor) 12.6%
Bradline Poor (people living below a relative poverty line, and as such excluded from participating in the norms of society) 29.9%
Neither Wealthy nor Poor: 63.7%
Asset Wealthy: (estimated using the relationship between housing wealth and the contemporary Inheritance Tax threshold) 6.4%
Exclusive Wealthy: (people with sufficient wealth to exclude themselves from the norms of society) 0.0%

Interesting, wouldn't you say?

Where'd you manage to get this data at constituency level? I'd love to have a look if that's possible

[Harry Hayfield]

Ealing, Southall

You know it's amazing really. Reading Lord Rennard's note and watching the BBC report on the by-election you wonder if they are talking about the same by-election. Lord Rennard says Lab / Lib Dem marginal (which would suggest a mininium of an 11% swing from Lab to Lib Dem whilst the BBC is saying CON GAIN from Lab without any problems!

Sedgefield

There is a bit of a track record of electors saying to parties "Did we really need this by-election?" for instance:

• Birmingham, Hodge Hill (MP sent to Europe): Lab to Lib Dem swing of 26.5%
  Hartlepool (MP sent to Europe): Lab to Lib Dem swing of 18.5%
  Hamilton South (MP sent to NATO): Lab to SNP swing of 17%
  Richmond, Yorkshire (MP sent to Europe): Con to Lib Dem swing of 10%

So it is very likely that Sedgefield might do the same again, plus where will those Spectre (Reg Keys) votes go? Back to Labour or to the Lib Dems?

Wealth by constituency
I downloaded the file that was published with the report. I was hoping to be able to make a map using it and post it if no one minded?

[Serenity Now]

Wealth by constituency
I downloaded the file that was published with the report. I was hoping to be able to make a map using it and post it if no one minded?

I'm sure nobody would mind at all! I was hoping to do the same myself!

Are the figures from that Joseph Rowntree report that came out the other day?

[Harry Hayfield]

That's the report! In that case, how about we split the task eh? I do Wales (as that's the area I know best), you do the part of the UK that you know best and we'll divide the rest between us, okay?

[afleitch]

If the Conservatives win this, its their first Labour scalp since Mitcham and Morden 1982 (which was a change of allegiance by-election)

You were right to point out Hamilton South Harry; it was a very strange election during where Labour were only saved by a 'Save the Accies' candidate

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Breaking news (almost)... Police begin Southall vote probe

Ealing, Southall

You know it's amazing really. Reading Lord Rennard's note and watching the BBC report on the by-election you wonder if they are talking about the same by-election.

True. Trouble is, no one seems to be entirely sure quite what will happen... still, Rennard's note indicates that the LibDems are taking Ealing very seriously (which is the main reason for posting it).

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Traditionally everyone assumed that that was the case, yes (as in the famous (though rather false actually; Labour held Grimsby because of a brilliant candidate and for no other reason) example of Labour losing Ashfield (caused by Marquand's resignation) while holding Grimsby, caused by Tony Crosland's untimely death), but I'm not entirely sure how true it is these days. In the 2001-2005 Parliament the two seats Labour lost in by-elections were caused by deaths while two tricky ones caused by resignations were held.
I think that how much effort the challenging (and defending, actually) party is prepared to invest in a given by-election and also certain local or national issues (I think it's quite clear that the swing in Hodge Hill was over Iraq and that in Hartlepool it was over hospital restructuring) have much more of an impact on the final result than how the by-election was caused.

Still, it would be surprising if there wasn't a large "swing" away from Labour in Sedgefield, if only due to a fall in turnout and a partial consolidation of the non-Labour vote around the LibDem candidate. But if even Lord Rennard ain't predicting a shocker then the chances of one must be extremely low (incedentially, I would also be shocked if the LibDems don't take over 20% and come second in Sedgefield).

[Harry Hayfield]

Gains against the fold since 1950

1957: Labour gain Carmarthen from Liberals
1960: Conservatives gain Brighouse and Spenborough from Labour
1962: Liberals gain Oprington from Conservatives
1965: Conservatives gain Leyton from Labour
1966: Plaid Cymru gain Carmarthen from Labour
1967: Scottish National Party gain Hamilton from Labour
1968 - 1969: Conservatives gain Acton, Dudley, Meriden, Oldham West, Nelson and Colne, Walthamstow East and Swindon from Labour
1972: Independents gain Lincoln from Labour
1982: Conservatives gain Mitcham and Morden from Labour / Social Democrat
2003 - 2004: Liberal Democrats gain Brent East and Leicester South from Labour

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I note that Wells is going to lock his Southall and Sedgefield threads for a few days in an effort to prevent spinning and over-the-top reacts to the results.
I'm not going to go that far here (after all, there's not really any need to; we've no proper hacks here), but I'll probably delete (or edit) any posts that go over the line.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And now for the weather...

Sedgefield

Most of the constituency: light showers, poor visibility
North of the constituency: cloudy, decent visibility

Ealing Southall

Southall: sunny intervals, decent visibility
Hanwell: ditto
Ealing: ditto

...according to the BBC weather website anyway. The weather has decided the outcome of more than just a few by-elections over the years, btw.

[Harry Hayfield]

We have a turnout report from Sedgefield from BBC Look North: Less than 50%

[Verily]

We have a turnout report from Sedgefield from BBC Look North: Less than 50%

It would have been shocking to have turnout above 50%, I think. Still, in order for it to be anything but a safe Labour hold, turnout has to be at around 40% or lower.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

New Ealing prediction; I suspect that it'll either be very close or a Labour hold by a surprisingly large margin. Former is more likely than the latter. Beyond that; not a clue.

And, frankly, I hate by-elections and want this lot to be over as soon as possible...

[Serenity Now]

That's the report! In that case, how about we split the task eh? I do Wales (as that's the area I know best), you do the part of the UK that you know best and we'll divide the rest between us, okay?

Sounds like a plan, I'll do London and the South East. If we make the colour keys distinctive enough we can decide on a "unified" (one if that makes sense).

Can you send me a link to the constituency but, I can't seem to find it in the "full report".

[Harry Hayfield]

Could we see a new entry to this list:

Three Way Marginal By-election Results since 1950
High Peak (1961): Con 37% Lab 32% Lib Dem 31%
Brecon and Radnor (1987): Lib Dem 36% Lab 34% Con 28% Plaid 1% Others 1%
Littleborough and Saddleworth (1995): Lib Dem 39% Lab 33% Con 24% Others 4%
Blackpool North (1962): Con 38% Lib Dem 35% Lab 26%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Potentially.
Trouble is, there's no hard evidence pointing in that direction (or, for that matter, the other way). Most "news" from this by-election has been partisan spin or (even worse) attempts to influence betting odds. But... some of it is likely to be fairly close to the truth.

And that's one reason why I've come to detest by-elections. That, and the amount of money that gets spent on them these days. Other things as well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Post by Nick Palmer M.P over at politicalbetting.com (and if thee wants to gloat or mope loadly or whatever... please do it over there, not here)

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I think we all know what "simply not saying" indicates. Sigh.

[Democratic Hawk]

Re-Ealing Southall, given how ethnically split the vote appears to be, I wonder if there has been a good turnout among Black-British voters, who I'd have thought were overwhelmingly Labour. Turnout among them could decide whether Labour holds or doesn't

Isn't there a reliable white working-class Labour vote in the constituency?

Dave

[Verily]

Re-Ealing Southall, given how ethnically split the vote appears to be, I wonder if there has been a good turnout among Black-British voters, who I'd have thought were overwhelmingly Labour. Turnout among them could decide whether Labour holds or doesn't

Isn't there a reliable white working-class Labour vote in the constituency?

Dave

In Ealing Southall, no. The white working-class vote there is one of the smallest in the country barring all-rich seats like Kensington and Chelsea. Most of the white vote is in the wealthy eastern end of the constituency where Labour's support barely registers.

[afleitch]

Polls have of course closed.

[Kevinstat]

When will hard numbers start to come in?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

When will hard numbers start to come in?

Early hours (U.K time). But a lot of rumours should start circulating. Any minute now actually.