Dodd map

[ag]

Kerry states + his own state of OH

Don't make me laugh. He has only one certain victory: DC. He might win in a state or two in addition - but even that would be very, very difficult. For him to get 100 electoral votes, his opponent would have to be Rush Limbaugh.

[ag]

I'd still fancy him to beat Palin.

No way. He'd struggle even in Vermont.

[ag]

I'd still fancy him to beat Palin.

No way. He'd struggle even in Vermont.

No, no he wouldn't. Lets not get silly now.

Not at all. Any half-decent third-party candidate would easily win in VT in this case, but assuming it is one-on-one Palin-Kucinich match-up, I sincerely don't know who'd win   (the state, of course: no question, Palin would landslide nationwide).

[ag]

Kucinich beat Palin?  Hahahhaa.

Both have limited bases, but Palin's is a LOT bigger. 

Kucinich loses big time to McCain because McCain is a credible candidate and Kucinich is not. However, Palin is not a credible candidate, either. She may have a larger base but she still can't string three words together into a coherent sentence. In 2008, the Democratic base is much larger than the Republican base. Kucinich may be a kook but Palin is clueless and over her head. I think turnout would be abysmal and I can't fully predict what would happen, but Palin couldn't win nationally in a rout under any circumstances short of the most extreme.

Kucinich as a Dem nominee IS the most extreme circumstance