France General Discussion III: Tout doit disparaître

[Tirnam]

For comparison, Hollande was at almost at exactly the same level at this stage in his presidency - and that was despite a much worse economic situation

Hollande was already in the mid 20s at this stage. And this is one of the worst polling institute for Macron, the other have him at around 40%

Who could potentially beat Macron anyway? Have there been any rumours on potential candidates? It's probably too early for that though (4 more years and this isn't America where everyone starts plotting to run for president and recruiting staff while they're a toddler ffs). Then again, some candidates announced their bids for the 2017 election very early.

In this poll Mélenchon is at 30%, Hamon at 20%, Le Pen at 17%, Wauquiez at 13%.

[EPG]

Unemployment in 2013 was 10-11%. Now it's 9-10%. My impression of the French economy - though I'm not there very often - is that the job situation has hardly changed in 6 years, while wages have just kept up with prices until the last year, as eurozone inflation has risen toward 2%. The student towns are doing fine and I don't see many other parts to judge. These are not objectively awesome conditions.

[parochial boy]

Unemployment in 2013 was 10-11%. Now it's 9-10%. My impression of the French economy - though I'm not there very often - is that the job situation has hardly changed in 6 years, while wages have just kept up with prices until the last year, as eurozone inflation has risen toward 2%. The student towns are doing fine and I don't see many other parts to judge. These are not objectively awesome conditions.

In France, the student towns are, with probably the exception of Poitiersle, the same thing as the big cities - which has always been part of the problem.

Anyway, that is almost the point as to why Macron is not popular despite better top line economic conditions. Until the last few months, the direction of travel had been declining unemployment etc, etc... But the fact that this trend of improvement, which was already heavily reliant on increasing numbers of CDD's, has stalled, plus the strikes and controversy surrounding his economic reforms (although admittedly, the circles I move in are likely to be far more angry about the content of them than the average French person) can easily explain why his popularity is eroding so quickly.

Or it's just part of the French national psyche to hate whoever is president, which makes obvious sense to anyone who has ever met a French person.

Who could potentially beat Macron anyway? Have there been any rumours on potential candidates? It's probably too early for that though (4 more years and this isn't America where everyone starts plotting to run for president and recruiting staff while they're a toddler ffs). Then again, some candidates announced their bids for the 2017 election very early.

In this poll Mélenchon is at 30%, Hamon at 20%, Le Pen at 17%, Wauquiez at 13%.

Yes, as in 2017, Macron is very much the beneficiary of how impressively pathetic both the left and right are.

[windjammer]

May I be the first to say, lol?

Who could potentially beat Macron anyway? Have there been any rumours on potential candidates? It's probably too early for that though (4 more years and this isn't America where everyone starts plotting to run for president and recruiting staff while they're a toddler ffs). Then again, some candidates announced their bids for the 2017 election very early.

His main problem would be the different political forces decide for the run off to vote for "anyone but Macron". That is how he could lose.

[mvd10]

May I be the first to say, lol?

Who could potentially beat Macron anyway? Have there been any rumours on potential candidates? It's probably too early for that though (4 more years and this isn't America where everyone starts plotting to run for president and recruiting staff while they're a toddler ffs). Then again, some candidates announced their bids for the 2017 election very early.

His main problem would be the different political forces decide for the run off to vote for "anyone but Macron". That is how he could lose.

Who would that be anyway? I'm still inclined to think that the left would vote for Macron over any LR candidate while the right would vote for Macron over any PS candidate. And that's assuming LR or PS makes the run-off while it's very possible Macron faces Mélenchon or Le Pen. I don't think Macron will bomb like Hollande.

[windjammer]

May I be the first to say, lol?

Who could potentially beat Macron anyway? Have there been any rumours on potential candidates? It's probably too early for that though (4 more years and this isn't America where everyone starts plotting to run for president and recruiting staff while they're a toddler ffs). Then again, some candidates announced their bids for the 2017 election very early.

His main problem would be the different political forces decide for the run off to vote for "anyone but Macron". That is how he could lose.

Who would that be anyway? I'm still inclined to think that the left would vote for Macron over any LR candidate while the right would vote for Macron over any PS candidate. And that's assuming LR or PS makes the run-off while it's very possible Macron faces Mélenchon or Le Pen. I don't think Macron will bomb like Hollande.

My best guess is Wauquiez if he reaches the run off:

-he would get all the RN easily as they're ideologically close
-And I think he could get enough abstention/blank ballot from the left.


I mean, LR+RN+DlF often poll at 35-45% after all.

[Lechasseur]

May I be the first to say, lol?

Who could potentially beat Macron anyway? Have there been any rumours on potential candidates? It's probably too early for that though (4 more years and this isn't America where everyone starts plotting to run for president and recruiting staff while they're a toddler ffs). Then again, some candidates announced their bids for the 2017 election very early.

His main problem would be the different political forces decide for the run off to vote for "anyone but Macron". That is how he could lose.

Who would that be anyway? I'm still inclined to think that the left would vote for Macron over any LR candidate while the right would vote for Macron over any PS candidate. And that's assuming LR or PS makes the run-off while it's very possible Macron faces Mélenchon or Le Pen. I don't think Macron will bomb like Hollande.

My best guess is Wauquiez if he reaches the run off:

-he would get all the RN easily as they're ideologically close
-And I think he could get enough abstention/blank ballot from the left.


I mean, LR+RN+DlF often poll at 35-45% after all.

Agreed

[mvd10]

May I be the first to say, lol?

Who could potentially beat Macron anyway? Have there been any rumours on potential candidates? It's probably too early for that though (4 more years and this isn't America where everyone starts plotting to run for president and recruiting staff while they're a toddler ffs). Then again, some candidates announced their bids for the 2017 election very early.

His main problem would be the different political forces decide for the run off to vote for "anyone but Macron". That is how he could lose.

Who would that be anyway? I'm still inclined to think that the left would vote for Macron over any LR candidate while the right would vote for Macron over any PS candidate. And that's assuming LR or PS makes the run-off while it's very possible Macron faces Mélenchon or Le Pen. I don't think Macron will bomb like Hollande.

My best guess is Wauquiez if he reaches the run off:

-he would get all the RN easily as they're ideologically close
-And I think he could get enough abstention/blank ballot from the left.


I mean, LR+RN+DlF often poll at 35-45% after all.

I know the left doesn't like Macron, but surely the prospect of a Wauquiez presidency would terrify them? Besides, Wauquiez doesn't look popular at all. A lot can change during 4 years but as of this moment he has crashed even below Fillon's polling numbers.

[EPG]

My best guess today is that the run-off is Macron versus not Wauquiez or centre/left.

Unemployment in 2013 was 10-11%. Now it's 9-10%. My impression of the French economy - though I'm not there very often - is that the job situation has hardly changed in 6 years, while wages have just kept up with prices until the last year, as eurozone inflation has risen toward 2%. The student towns are doing fine and I don't see many other parts to judge. These are not objectively awesome conditions.

In France, the student towns are, with probably the exception of Poitiersle, the same thing as the big cities - which has always been part of the problem.

Anyway, that is almost the point as to why Macron is not popular despite better top line economic conditions. Until the last few months, the direction of travel had been declining unemployment etc, etc... But the fact that this trend of improvement, which was already heavily reliant on increasing numbers of CDD's, has stalled, plus the strikes and controversy surrounding his economic reforms (although admittedly, the circles I move in are likely to be far more angry about the content of them than the average French person) can easily explain why his popularity is eroding so quickly.

Or it's just part of the French national psyche to hate whoever is president, which makes obvious sense to anyone who has ever met a French person.

Ha. Well, I love them as a country anyway. I'd also probably resent a series of governments that kept unemployment at 9 to 11%. But what's to be done? It seems the median French hates both trade unions and liberal reforms. And then blame Sarkozy/Hollande/Macron?! A tiny improvement in joblessness and inflation goes up. No spare capacity? What's to be done?

[swl]

Don't underestimate the impact of the driving speed reduction that was just implemented. By far the most unpopular decision of this government so far.

[Lechasseur]

May I be the first to say, lol?

Who could potentially beat Macron anyway? Have there been any rumours on potential candidates? It's probably too early for that though (4 more years and this isn't America where everyone starts plotting to run for president and recruiting staff while they're a toddler ffs). Then again, some candidates announced their bids for the 2017 election very early.

His main problem would be the different political forces decide for the run off to vote for "anyone but Macron". That is how he could lose.

Who would that be anyway? I'm still inclined to think that the left would vote for Macron over any LR candidate while the right would vote for Macron over any PS candidate. And that's assuming LR or PS makes the run-off while it's very possible Macron faces Mélenchon or Le Pen. I don't think Macron will bomb like Hollande.

My best guess is Wauquiez if he reaches the run off:

-he would get all the RN easily as they're ideologically close
-And I think he could get enough abstention/blank ballot from the left.


I mean, LR+RN+DlF often poll at 35-45% after all.

I know the left doesn't like Macron, but surely the prospect of a Wauquiez presidency would terrify them? Besides, Wauquiez doesn't look popular at all. A lot can change during 4 years but as of this moment he has crashed even below Fillon's polling numbers.

That is true

[windjammer]

May I be the first to say, lol?

Who could potentially beat Macron anyway? Have there been any rumours on potential candidates? It's probably too early for that though (4 more years and this isn't America where everyone starts plotting to run for president and recruiting staff while they're a toddler ffs). Then again, some candidates announced their bids for the 2017 election very early.

His main problem would be the different political forces decide for the run off to vote for "anyone but Macron". That is how he could lose.

Who would that be anyway? I'm still inclined to think that the left would vote for Macron over any LR candidate while the right would vote for Macron over any PS candidate. And that's assuming LR or PS makes the run-off while it's very possible Macron faces Mélenchon or Le Pen. I don't think Macron will bomb like Hollande.

My best guess is Wauquiez if he reaches the run off:

-he would get all the RN easily as they're ideologically close
-And I think he could get enough abstention/blank ballot from the left.


I mean, LR+RN+DlF often poll at 35-45% after all.

I know the left doesn't like Macron, but surely the prospect of a Wauquiez presidency would terrify them? Besides, Wauquiez doesn't look popular at all. A lot can change during 4 years but as of this moment he has crashed even below Fillon's polling numbers.

Well, Wauquiez is terribly unpopular but his party reaches out the third place for the european not far away from the RN.

He's ideologically angling the "anti globalization" program. He would obviously not get many votes from the left but getting enough abstentions is definitely a possibility.


Wauquiez is a tough campaigner. He has overperformed his national party many times on the elections he ran. I have been thinking for example about his easy reelection victory in 2012 for his legislative seat while Hollande carried it, his election to the presidency of Rhone-Alpes-Auvergne while the fondamentals weren't particularly favoring his 5 point victory etc etc.


So honestly he's being weakaned right now, but he shouldn't be underestimated.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Macron approval-rating 80% tomorrow morning.

[Hash]

Well, 20 years ago these were Chirac's approvals...



+14 between June and August 1998.

[Peanut]

Macron approval-rating 80% tomorrow morning.

[Antonio the Sixth]

One more reason I was rooting for Croatia...

[Intell]

One more reason I was rooting for Croatia...

You're french...

[Antonio the Sixth]

One more reason I was rooting for Croatia...

You're french...

And?

[Zinneke]

Pretty extraordinary story that should put Macron in hotter water than he currently in.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44898387

EDIT : given Colomb knew about it the day after the events happened, he looks like he will be the next senior political casualty of the Macron government. Manu himself will have the same plausable deniability as Mitterand did with the Rainbow Warrior, but all evidence seems to suggest that he was informed of Benella's misconduct.

[Tirnam]

This is probably the most stupid scandal ever, why would you ruin everything to protect a guy like that...

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is probably the most stupid scandal ever, why would you ruin everything to protect a guy like that...

Because FBM has lived all his life as a spoiled rich kid who could get away with anything, and couldn't fathom what it's like to actually be held accountable?

[Tirnam]

This is probably the most stupid scandal ever, why would you ruin everything to protect a guy like that...

Because FBM has lived all his life as a spoiled rich kid who could get away with anything, and couldn't fathom what it's like to actually be held accountable?

That’s your biased perception of Macron...
No, the problem is that he is very loyal with the people who are loyal with him. Just like it took weeks to fire Bayrou and Ferrand last year.

[Hash]

I'm not quite sure that saying FBM is a spoiled rich kid who got away with anything (except his love affair with his teacher, at first) is a 'biased perception'. It's much closer to an objective fact, and FBM confirmed that with his outburst at the kid who called him 'Manu'.

[Tirnam]

I'm not quite sure that saying FBM is a spoiled rich kid who got away with anything (except his love affair with his teacher, at first) is a 'biased perception'. It's much closer to an objective fact, and FBM confirmed that with his outburst at the kid who called him 'Manu'.

Because it's shocking that the President should be call "M. President" instead of "Manu" during an official ceremony to commemorate the death of hundreds of Resistance fighters during WWII?

[Umengus]

(real) big surprise: no boost for Macron after the WC:

BVA poll (07/18-19)

Bad opinion of Macron: 59 (+6)
Good opinion of Macron: 39 (-2)

And the actual scandal will not improve the popularity of Macron: each day adds bad news: lies, new informations,... it's a soap.

To be honest, I'm suprised by the fact that it's  Le Monde Newspaper (pro-macron) who began with this. Today, it's an "affaire d'Etat" and the interior minister is in danger.

Of course, Macron mismanaged that in an amazing measure.