Who has the momentum?

[J. J.]

Bush.  What you see here is the Kerry debate bounce, which was never strong and is beginning to evaporate.  The Friday, we'll start getting clearer of poll numbers.

Kerry "won" the debates, but it wasn't a big enough to push him into the lead for mover than a few days.

[J. J.]

Most new results today are worse (from Kerry's perspective) than those of two or three days back. The only good number today came from Zogby, where the rolling three days difference dropped from Bush +4 to Bush +2, which means, in my estimate that the daily was probably around Kerry +2.

State polls are looking up for Kerry... Ohio and Wisconsin have tightened up, and one poll in Florida shows Kerry ahead, though its a disputed poll.

As it has been in this campaign until now, a shift in the nationwide number is reflected few days later in the states numbers. In the last days there was a small but clear and consistent shift to Bush.

Just wait until Bush's social security plan gets out. People are not going to like that. Bush has some radical ideas.

Gee, do you really think it will come out after 4.5 years?

[J. J.]

Most new results today are worse (from Kerry's perspective) than those of two or three days back. The only good number today came from Zogby, where the rolling three days difference dropped from Bush +4 to Bush +2, which means, in my estimate that the daily was probably around Kerry +2.

State polls are looking up for Kerry... Ohio and Wisconsin have tightened up, and one poll in Florida shows Kerry ahead, though its a disputed poll.

As it has been in this campaign until now, a shift in the nationwide number is reflected few days later in the states numbers. In the last days there was a small but clear and consistent shift to Bush.

I and you know that the Cons would like to gradually get rid of SC. My feeling is that most of the people are going in the dark on this issue and are badly misinformed.

PS: FDR - the initiator of SC is the Democratic president whom the Cons hate the most.

Ever hear of "lock box?"

[J. J.]

Rove has even acknowledged that Bush will need a 4% lead going into election day to win. The reason he gave? The way the undecideds will break against Bush. With Kerry leading by large margins (according to Gallup) in newly registered voters, young voters, and independents; Kerry is poised to win this thing by 2%.

Tick, Tick, Tick, Tick......

Well the current Gallup poll shows Bush with an 8 point lead.

Tock, Tock, Tock, Tock .....