Could 2012 have the House and Senate flip both ways? (user search)
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  Could 2012 have the House and Senate flip both ways? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Could 2012 have the House and Senate flip both ways?  (Read 2650 times)
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jfern
Atlas Institution
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Posts: 53,761


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« on: October 15, 2010, 07:47:28 PM »

Suppose that the Republicans take the House this year, gaining House seats.
Suppose that the Republicans end up with 49 or 50 Senate seats, not quite enough to take control of the Senate.

2012 comes around and Obama gets re-elected, and Democratic turnout is higher, which results in the Democrats retaking the House.

As for the Senate, there are 23 Democrats and 10 Republicans up for re-election, so the Republicans net a couple of Senate seats.

So the Democrats would pickup the House while the Republicans simultaneously pick up the Senate.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 53,761


Political Matrix
E: -7.38, S: -8.36

« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2010, 07:53:46 PM »

Its certainly possible. If Obama gets reelected though. You would likely face a blowotu againts the Dems in 2014 in the Senate (so a possible strong majority from 2012 could reach 60) and regaining the House.

I think it would be premature to predict the results of the 2014 House elections. As for the Senate, yes the Republicans would be almost certain to have a majority after the 2014 elections, but I don't know about 60.

In any case, the chances of progressive legislation passing the Senate in the next 6 years are virtually zilch. Great job, Obama.
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