UK General Discussion

[Leftbehind]

You still read Tories trying to argue that Balls' unpopularity will stop a Labour victory, completely ignoring Osborne is even more unpopular!

[You kip if you want to...]

The Conservative Party are the only people who care about Ed Balls' record. The electorate doesn't really care that much, many would struggle to even put a name to a face...

[You kip if you want to...]

Just wondering, but in what seats (or areas, considering boundary changes since) would Labour have a chance in 2015 that they didn't win in 1997 should they win government?

[minionofmidas]

Just wondering, but in what seats (or areas, considering boundary changes since) would Labour have a chance in 2015 that they didn't win in 1997 should they win government?

Since there's very little chance of Labour winning a huge landslide as opposed to a majority... Môn and Sheffield Hallam.

[You kip if you want to...]

Just wondering, but in what seats (or areas, considering boundary changes since) would Labour have a chance in 2015 that they didn't win in 1997 should they win government?

Since there's very little chance of Labour winning a huge landslide as opposed to a majority... Môn and Sheffield Hallam.

Nooo, of course I'm not implying that I expect some massive landslide. I was just looking at the polling average with UNS seat predictions and it seems that nowhere's trended away from the Tories since 1997 enough for a big national margin to give Labour seats they've never won from them.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html
I notice just 1 (Chipping Barnet).

[Dr. Cynic]

Just wondering, but in what seats (or areas, considering boundary changes since) would Labour have a chance in 2015 that they didn't win in 1997 should they win government?

What about Stone?

[minionofmidas]

Just wondering, but in what seats (or areas, considering boundary changes since) would Labour have a chance in 2015 that they didn't win in 1997 should they win government?

Since there's very little chance of Labour winning a huge landslide as opposed to a majority... Môn and Sheffield Hallam.

Nooo, of course I'm not implying that I expect some massive landslide. I was just looking at the polling average with UNS seat predictions and it seems that nowhere's trended away from the Tories since 1997 enough for a big national margin to give Labour seats they've never won from them.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html
I notice just 1 (Chipping Barnet).

Hallam is above that in your list, and the core of it was indeed never Labour-held. (The highest ranked constituency Labour didn't win in 1997 is Southwark & Bermondsey. I also note Môn isn't listed there at all... apparently it's a list of constituencies for which they have a prediction.)

[You kip if you want to...]

Just wondering, but in what seats (or areas, considering boundary changes since) would Labour have a chance in 2015 that they didn't win in 1997 should they win government?

Since there's very little chance of Labour winning a huge landslide as opposed to a majority... Môn and Sheffield Hallam.

Nooo, of course I'm not implying that I expect some massive landslide. I was just looking at the polling average with UNS seat predictions and it seems that nowhere's trended away from the Tories since 1997 enough for a big national margin to give Labour seats they've never won from them.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html
I notice just 1 (Chipping Barnet).

Hallam is above that in your list, and the core of it was indeed never Labour-held. (The highest ranked constituency Labour didn't win in 1997 is Southwark & Bermondsey. I also note Môn isn't listed there at all... apparently it's a list of constituencies for which they have a prediction.)

Hallam will be a weird result (as most Liberal seats will be), but Clegg'll hold on.

[minionofmidas]

Also, Hexham, Kensington (though of course the old Kensington North was a Labour seat) and Uxbridge aren't far below Barnet on hte list.
(Checks Wiki) Uxbridge was actually a usually Labour held marginal during the 50s. Colour me surprised. Hexham has never been Labour, though (but got even closer than Barnet and Uxbridge did in 1997).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Uxbridge in the 50s had much more pro-Labour boundaries, but, yeah, places like that moved way to the right in the 1970s and stayed there (with the exception of the occasional wobble in 1997).

[Leftbehind]

I see a few measly concessions was enough for Labour to abstain (in practice support) the government retrospectively changing the law to avoid paying jobseekers what they were owed and in general the principle of sanctions against the unemployed opting out of a program of workfare they agree to be worse than useless.

[You kip if you want to...]

I see a few measly concessions was enough for Labour to abstain (in practice support) the government retrospectively changing the law to avoid paying jobseekers what they were owed and in general the principle of sanctions against the unemployed opting out of a program of workfare they agree to be worse than useless.

Pretty disgusting move on their part.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Liam Byrne is not very good at his job. Literally makes no sense from any point of view; an attempt to be clever that isn't, really, at all.

[You kip if you want to...]

Liam Byrne is not very good at his job. Literally makes no sense from any point of view; an attempt to be clever that isn't, really, at all.

Liam Byrne's easily the worst frontbencher.

[You kip if you want to...]

Happy budget day!

Growth forecast halved.

[You kip if you want to...]

Labour MPs (and Balls told off for) waving tonight's Evening Standard with details of the budget.

Many observers tweeting about the case of Hugh Dalton who was sacked for leaking his budget to the evening papers.

[Leftbehind]

John McDonnell being his usual exemplary self.

[MaxQue]

It's the Commons?
It looks empty, small and has no tables.

[Benj]

It's the Commons?
It looks empty, small and has no tables.

As I recall, the Commons is far too small to sit all of its members at once. Also, it's presumably usually almost empty, like the US Congress (and probably most legislatures?).

[Silent Hunter]

It's the Commons?
It looks empty, small and has no tables.

As I recall, the Commons is far too small to sit all of its members at once. Also, it's presumably usually almost empty, like the US Congress (and probably most legislatures?).

Deliberately so in fact - when it was blown up in a German air raid (it was empty at the time), they decided to rebuild it as it was to make it appear less empty.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's why, for really important votes, you see a load of MPs standing in the gangway.

[YL]

Just wondering, but in what seats (or areas, considering boundary changes since) would Labour have a chance in 2015 that they didn't win in 1997 should they win government?

Since there's very little chance of Labour winning a huge landslide as opposed to a majority... Môn and Sheffield Hallam.

Nooo, of course I'm not implying that I expect some massive landslide. I was just looking at the polling average with UNS seat predictions and it seems that nowhere's trended away from the Tories since 1997 enough for a big national margin to give Labour seats they've never won from them.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/orderedseats.html
I notice just 1 (Chipping Barnet).

Hallam is above that in your list, and the core of it was indeed never Labour-held. (The highest ranked constituency Labour didn't win in 1997 is Southwark & Bermondsey. I also note Môn isn't listed there at all... apparently it's a list of constituencies for which they have a prediction.)

Ynys Môn is on there, actually, but because the ordering is just the difference between Labour and Conservative it's quite high up the list (no. 215).  The reason the numbers don't go up to 632 is that seats for which the Electoral Calculus forecast is for a party other than Lab or Con to win aren't included in the numbering.   Of course if you're including seats Labour didn't win in 1997 but have won since there's also South Dorset.

As for Hallam, it would be a bit of a fluke for Labour to win it on current boundaries but it's not impossible.  It probably needs the Tory vote not to be squeezed too much so that it's approaching three-way marginal territory.  (The leaflets I've been getting recently suggest the Lib Dems know this, as they're clearly targeting the Tory vote.  However, that may be more to do with Council elections than parliamentary ones.)  Labour did win the 1997 version of Bristol West, which wouldn't have been that different demographically, twice, in results where all three parties were quite close.  (The current Bristol West is more favourable to Labour.)

There are a couple of Scottish seats where Labour, although third, doesn't need that big a swing from 2010: Argyll & Bute and Gordon.  It doesn't seem a very plausible Labour seat, but if Ming Campbell retires North East Fife could be interesting, too.

Altrincham & Sale West isn't that far down the Electoral Calculus list.  That turning red would be another example of Tory decline in northern cities and their metropolitan areas, but it's still probably not happening short of a big landslide.

[afleitch]

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/cardinal-was-in-physical-relationship-with-accuser.20550591#.UUr9rjhjYWg.gmail

'Cardinal Keith O'Brien had a long-standing physical relationship with one of the men whose complaints about his behaviour sparked his downfall as leader of the Catholic Church in Scotland.

The man left the priesthood in the middle of the last decade but rejoined and is living on the continent in a post the cardinal helped him secure.

The complainant is known to have been in regular telephone contact with Cardinal O'Brien until recently and was a frequent visitor to St Benets, his official residence in Edinburgh's Morningside.

It is understood the cardinal confessed to the relationship after it was recently revealed there had been several complaints to the Vatican about his sexual behaviour towards priests in the 1980s. It is thought to be part of his reference to his sexual conduct as "a priest, a bishop and a cardinal".

It also emerged the dramatic downfall of Britain's leading Catholic cleric was spurred by gay priests angry at his rhetoric and hypocrisy about same-sex marriages.'

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, the old Bristol West counts as one of the most unlikely seats to have ever had a Labour MP.

[You kip if you want to...]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E65bsGNylD8

Ed's been getting better and better lately.