Migrating population is the key to the trend analysis

[The Duke]

I think the fact that the Republicans now control nearly every state office and te state legislature for about the first time ever is a pretty good sign that they have trended Republican.  The home state effect explains the Presidential race issues.

[The Duke]

Have you noticed that the governors of MA, CT, NY, and MD  are all REPs.
In MA Bush got 32%. In NYC - 15% despite the GOP mayor.

There are two things that make Florida different.

1) In Florida,, unlike those other states, the governor in question is not a moderate Yankee but a true bona-fide conservative.

2) In Florida, unlike those other states, the Governor is the President's brother.

Yeah, I think 2002 Bush-McBride gives us a rough idea of how Florida voters feel about the President.