ME: Independents Gaining Traction

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Moving back to Maine in May, excited to get caught up on everything.

I doubt Collins actually runs.

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Article from the Kennebec Journal detailing Eliot Cutler's impact on Terry Hayes in 2018.

http://www.centralmaine.com/2017/05/14/jim-fossel-maines-third-party-challenges/

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The Maine Supreme Court has ruled Ranked Choice Voting conflicts with the Maine Constitution.

Here is a link to the ruling.

http://www.courts.maine.gov/opinions_orders/supreme/lawcourt/2017/17me100.pdf

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Maine DHHS Commissioner Mary Mayhew is leaving the LePage administration.

http://bangordailynews.com/2017/05/24/politics/mary-mayhew-to-leave-lepage-administration/

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My guess is that she's starting the groundwork for a run.

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The "Centrist Project" endorses Terry Hayes, and announces a partnership with the Eliot Cutler driven group Maine Independents.

http://www.centristproject.org/mainerelease?utm_campaign=maineannounce&utm_medium=email&utm_source=centristproject

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Left-wing activist Betsy Sweet announced a Gubernatorial bid today. She'll be seeking the Democratic nomination.

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http://www.wcsh6.com/news/politics/sweet-parlays-left-wing-activism-into-gubernatorial-bid/444376191

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If Cutler f***s Maine into more sh*tty Republicans like LePage, so help me God.

Doesn't Maine have IRV now to prevent stuff like this?

Just struck down by the Maine Supreme Court.

If Maine had IRV, I wouldn't care. Cutler may have gotten the idea to support Independents/Centrist Prokect thinking it would stick, but... well, for now, it won't. And it's probably too late to get an Amendment on the ballot in time for it to be relevant. (Unless it goes to SCOTUS from SC of ME, somehow.)

Somewhat related, two term-limited Democrats who were Bernie aligned defected from the Party.

Heard on MPBN last night that there's some thought that IRV could still be implemented for the US Senate and US House races, or something like that. I was driving so I didn't get the full story and I haven't had time to look for it again.

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I hate to post an article from Fox News, but my free article views from the Portland Press Herald are up and it is the same story.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/06/03/maine-governors-race-awaits-high-profile-candidates.html

Features a quote from one of my former professors and academic advisor Mark Brewer.

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It's official: former DHHS commissioner Mary Mayhew is in.

http://www.pressherald.com/2017/06/06/former-dhhs-commissioner-mayhew-announces-run-for-governor-in-2018/

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Clearly she would run as a more conservative alternative to Collins if she decides to run.

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Is Terry Hayes prominent enough to play spoiler? Surely liberals and anti-LePage moderate voters aren't stupid enough to split the vote again, are they? Fool me once, fool me twice... Fool me three times?

Depends on the strength of the Dem. nominee, in my view. Libby Mitchell wasn't a strong candidate. Cutler didn't play spoiler in 2010, Mitchell did.

I'd even argue that Michaud wasn't that strong a candidate in 2014 either, though Cutler clearly should not have run.

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Attorney General Janet Mills says she’ll run for governor in 2018

Well, she is a rather big name. Do you think that will clear the field?

I think it will, as far as big names on the Dem side go.

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Attorney General Janet Mills says she’ll run for governor in 2018

Well, she is a rather big name. Do you think that will clear the field?

I think it will, as far as big names on the Dem side go.

That's too bad. I really wish Michaud would run and win, or maybe Joe Baldacci.

I was hoping for a nice open contest too, but I really think Mills clears it. I was hoping Justin Alfond would run at least but I find it hard to believe that the nominee would be anyone BUT Mills at this point.

I doubt Michaud would run again.

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Former House Speaker Mark Eves is announcing his run for governor today

Video.

Well, guess I was wrong...not that Eves is a huge name, but still notable.

I also hope Jackson runs against Poliquin in 2018.

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I fear Mills will be Libby Mitchell/Mike Michaud 2.0. Troy Jackson would be better.

I'd argue that Mills is a better and more well known candidate than Mitchell ever was.

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Democrats have another entrant: Jim Boyle, businessman and former State Senator from Gorham.

http://www.wcsh6.com/news/local/former-state-senator-jim-boyle-enters-race-for-maine-governor/457563191

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Surprised by the amount of people on the Dem side, quite honestly. I'm hoping Collins will make up her mind soon so that either she's in for the GOP or if she's not, then we should get a handful of others to declare.

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Damn near clowncar level. And while he has an ex-Baldacci and Michaud staffer already lined up with him, I don't see him making headway against Eves and Mills.

Yeah all we need is for Michaud, Pingree, and Jackson to all run and then it'll be chaos

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Yet another entrant for the Democrats. It's just former State Rep. Diane Russell (D-Portland) but this is clearly becoming clown car status at this point, especially if Dunlap or Michaud enter.

http://www.pressherald.com/2017/08/10/former-portland-rep-diane-russell-joins-governors-race/

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Well, this is going to be an interesting primary on the Democratic side. Mayhew is the only Republican so far who has declared that she's running, right? Hopefully other Republicans enter soon.

Once Collins announces she won't run (she's probably seeing she'll lose the primary) others will jump in.

Yes, she is -- there had been a long-shot little known candidate, but he withdrew a few weeks ago.

As said above, everyone is waiting on Collins.

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Shawn Moody is running as a Republican, as expected.

http://www.wcsh6.com/news/local/moody-expected-to-join-race-for-governor/493622406

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Found those last two paragraphs fascinating. Would be a HUGE blow to Mayhew and Fredette if LePage endorses him.

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I love this race. So many candidates!

I'm still wrapping my head around the Moody/LePage news. I understand running the "Augusta sucks because of the political class" type of campaign -- and trust me, he's doing that -- but Moody is so unlike LePage in temperament. He's down to Earth, personable, easy to talk to. Not 100% bluster like LePage.

It worries me that he'd be tied so close to the Governor. But I'll wait for more before making a decision on him. I think for right now, if I HAD to vote for a Republican, my preferred choice would be Thibodeau.

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I love this race. So many candidates!

I'm still wrapping my head around the Moody/LePage news. I understand running the "Augusta sucks because of the political class" type of campaign -- and trust me, he's doing that -- but Moody is so unlike LePage in temperament. He's down to Earth, personable, easy to talk to. Not 100% bluster like LePage.

It worries me that he'd be tied so close to the Governor. But I'll wait for more before making a decision on him. I think for right now, if I HAD to vote for a Republican, my preferred choice would be Thibodeau.

What are your thoughts on the Democratic candidates?

My thoughts are that I have a hard time believing that the nominee would be anyone other than Janet Mills. Then again, with so many candidates running, who knows. There is no one on the Democratic side that really speaks to me, but if it were down to Mills vs. Fredette/Mayhew/Mason, I'd vote for Mills.

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John Jenkins sounds amazing. I’d like to see him and Hayes reach some agreement, though, where maybe she runs for the House and endorsed him.

Hayes is a much, much stronger general election candidate than the motivational speaker and ex-body builder.

I don't necessarily disagree, but just to discount Jenkins as a motivational speaker and ex-body builder is a little low. The guy has served as mayor of both Lewiston and Auburn, and served a term in the State Senate. He has experience.

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http://www.wcsh6.com/news/local/rep-chellie-pingree-says-shes-seriously-considering-running-for-governor/496673023

Well, this is interesting...

She would tank badly in the 2nd district.

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Jim Boyle and Sean Faircloth are out. Faircloth announced his endorsement of Mark Eves; Boyle has not endorsed anyone.

It is expected more will drop out March 15th, which is the deadline for signatures to qualify for the primary ballot.

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So, what's everyone think the matchup will be?
My money is on Mayhew vs. Mills

I have a feeling it'll be Mills and Moody.