Dem house Majority unlikely my ass (user search)
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  Dem house Majority unlikely my ass (search mode)
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Author Topic: Dem house Majority unlikely my ass  (Read 1378 times)
True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« on: March 27, 2012, 03:04:06 PM »

Lot of Republican-held marginal seats that were shored up this year.

The only marginal Republican seats that were put out of reach for Democrats are NC-02, TN-08, OH-01, OH-15, IN-09, NJ-07, and maybe PA-03.  The rest are still very winnable for Democrats. 

I'd add SC-05 to that list of marginal seats that were made safe.  Without redistricting, Mulvaney might have been a vulnerable freshman, if he faced a quality Democratic opponent (which sadly are hard to come by in this state as one-party rule is never good, no matter which party rules).  Not that the 2010 elections changed much here.  Possibly the Republicans would have made the 5th a bit more Republican to make certain they would defeat Spratt it he had survived for one last term.  But a 6-1 redistricting plan was a foregone conclusion.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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Posts: 42,144
United States


« Reply #1 on: March 27, 2012, 10:16:47 PM »

Lot of Republican-held marginal seats that were shored up this year.

The only marginal Republican seats that were put out of reach for Democrats are NC-02, TN-08, OH-01, OH-15, IN-09, NJ-07, and maybe PA-03.  The rest are still very winnable for Democrats. 

I'd add SC-05 to that list of marginal seats that were made safe.  Without redistricting, Mulvaney might have been a vulnerable freshman, if he faced a quality Democratic opponent (which sadly are hard to come by in this state as one-party rule is never good, no matter which party rules).  Not that the 2010 elections changed much here.  Possibly the Republicans would have made the 5th a bit more Republican to make certain they would defeat Spratt it he had survived for one last term.  But a 6-1 redistricting plan was a foregone conclusion.

It was only made about two points more Republican.  Vincent Shaheen would have made it a real race against Mulvaney. 

Spratt hung on as long as he did solely because he was an incumbent.

Even without redistricting, Sheheen was likely to have been looking forward to a rematch with Haley. Senatorial and Gubernatorial elections are on alternating 4 year cycles, so he can run for Governor without ever risking his Senate seat.
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