MO: Akin could really blow this

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Even if he were to win, with this albatross around his neck, would the Senate Republicans let him join their caucus?

As for how this idea got started, fetal resorption does occur and conceivably the stress of "legitimate rape" could cause the lining of the uterus to be unreceptive to the blastocyst.  Not that there are any legitimate studies that show that this hypothesis has any validity.  Of course, one could argue it's the fault of rape victims who don't get upset enough that this doesn't happen.  NOT!

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Akin is toast politically if he drops out.  The only hope for his personal political future is to stay in and dare the establishment to stay on the sidelines.  If he thinks this has a chance to blow over, he'll stay.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Intrade now has McCaskill narrowly favored to hold the seat.

Idiots.  Even if Akin stays in, McCaskill winning isn't a sure thing.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Intrade now has McCaskill narrowly favored to hold the seat.

Idiots.  Even if Akin stays in, McCaskill winning isn't a sure thing.

I said "narrowly favored", not "sure thing".

For Intrade to have changed so much, there must be a lot of people thinking Akin will stay in and bomb.  McCaskill should not be narrowly favored.  Akin is more likely than not to leave, it's just a question of how long and on what terms, and as I said, even if he did stay on the ballot, he might still pull this off.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Intrade now has McCaskill narrowly favored to hold the seat.

Idiots.  Even if Akin stays in, McCaskill winning isn't a sure thing.

I said "narrowly favored", not "sure thing".

For Intrade to have changed so much, there must be a lot of people thinking Akin will stay in and bomb.  McCaskill should not be narrowly favored.  Akin is more likely than not to leave, it's just a question of how long and on what terms, and as I said, even if he did stay on the ballot, he might still pull this off.

Even if there's a replacement candidate who the party can agree on, it's not a certainty that that person would be able to get their act together for a solid senate campaign from scratch.  So I don't think Akin dropping out means definite GOP pickup (not that it was a definite GOP pickup even before Akin made the gaffe).  Anyway, one's assessment of the race depends heavily on how high one rates the chances of Akin dropping out, which there's probably a fair amount of disagreement over.

Anyway, as of right now, the Intrade prices have pulled back to an exact 50/50 tie.

Akin was the weakest of the three contenders in the primary.  He won because the other two were busy fighting each other and McCaskill's successful criticism of him as too conservative so as to increase his appeal to primary voters.  So long as the MO GOP doesn't nominate someone crazy (and it won't) as the replacement, ey will do better than Akin.