TN-Vanderbilt: Romney+1 among Adults, +7 among RV

[Tender Branson]

42% Romney
41% Obama

With 1,002 respondents to the Vanderbilt Poll, the margin for error is plus or minus 4 percentage points. The data were weighted to ensure balance in terms of age, gender, and race/ethnicity, but the unweighted findings were nearly identical. The poll was conducted by calling a random sample of landline and cellphone telephone numbers between May 2 and May 9, 2012.

http://data3.tennessean.com/projects/vanderbilt-politics-polls/?qid=846

Sample is 304 Democrats, 303 Republicans, 265 Independents, 93 Something else (Greens, Libertarians, etc. I guess), 22 Don't know and 15 Refused.

Obama leads Democrats 85-7, Romney leads Republicans 83-5 and Romney leads Indies by 45-34.

[Tender Branson]

It's a bit annoying that they screened for registered voters, yet when you go to "filter" for demographic subgroups, registered voters is not an option. Just party, age, religion, race etc.

[Tender Branson]

I would like a Mason-Dixon poll to back this up. Mason-Dixon generally does best in the South.

[Tender Branson]

The partisan ID of this sample is 30.3% Dem, 30.2% Rep, and 26.4% Indy (even). The 2008 Tennessee turnout was 33% Rep, 32% Dem, and 35% Ind (R+1). That means Vanderbilt is banking on a NET larger Democratic turnout in 2012 than in 2008. If you're one of those that believes 2012 turnout will not be as favorable to Obama as it was 4 yrs ago, then this poll is over sampling Democrats a bit. But considering McCain carried this state 57-42% four yrs ago, Romney does appear to be under-performing in this Southern/Appalachian state.

They are not banking on it, because it's a poll of adults. And in TN there are a lot more Democrats registered than Republicans. Which makes the sample of adults more or less correct. Likely voter samples might be a different story though.

[Tender Branson]

The Tennessean now has an article up as well and the article mentions their RV breakdown as well:

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So, like I predicted: Romney increases his lead among RV from 1 to 7 (which is still good for Obama).

[Tender Branson]

Corrected the numbers in the database entry.

[Tender Branson]

Vanderbilt has consistently seen the Tennessee race as close. I don't believe that it will be anywhere near close in Tennessee in the end. But according to this pollster, Romney is expanding his lead there: http://argojournal.blogspot.com/2012/05/poll-watch-vanderbilt-tennessee-2012.html

Romney polled at 42-39% against Obama in their February poll. So Romney's 47-40% lead in this months poll actually represents a fair improvement.

Tennessee voted 57-42% for McCain/Palin in 2008, a year that saw Obama win the national popular vote by 7.3 points. Unless you think Obama will do even better in '12, there's just no way it can be close in that state in November. Just going with my gut, and nothing more, but I'm betting TN is even deeper red this go-round.

I think Romney+7 is also about what PPP found when they last polled TN a very long time ago.

TN and KY are severely underpolled anyway.

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, I'll too believe it will be double-digits again at the end of the day, but nonetheless the comparison with 2008 polling is interesting:

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=47